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AssessmentsOct 17, 2025 | 20:31 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other senior government members and deputies attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 8, 2025, in Beijing, China.
What To Watch for During China's Fourth Plenum
The Chinese government's fourth plenum will reveal its next five-year plan, elucidating economic and security objectives; it will likely also update Beijing's indigenous industrialization plans and fill the thinned ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, giving insights into future policy priorities and the trajectory of President Xi Jinping's political purges. China's Central Committee (CC), the national decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), will hold its fourth plenum from Oct. 20-23. In its five-year tenure, each CC holds seven plenums, with this fourth plenum set to discuss China's 15th five-year plan. Each five-year plan is a policy document that roughly outlines the CCP's top economic, security and political priorities for China, with this latest iteration covering 2026-2030. Though the full details will not be published until China's ''Two Sessions'' rubber-stamp legislative meetings in March 2026, the CCP usually publishes a proposal containing the broad policy contours and ideological framing
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China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
Situation ReportOct 17, 2025 | 15:54 GMT
Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter
Representatives from 25 political parties and alliances in Bangladesh, including major groups such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, signed the July National Charter 2025 -- named after the national uprisings of July 2024 -- which lays out a roadmap for constitutional amendments, legal reforms and the introduction of new legislation, The Business Standard reported on Oct. 17.
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Bangladesh
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportOct 16, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Madagascar: African Union Suspends Madagascar Over Military Coup
The African Union announced the suspension of Madagascar's membership from the continental bloc in response to the Malagasy military's Oct. 14 coup, warned of sanctions against the country's new military rulers and called for a civilian-led transitional government that organizes new elections as soon as possible, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 16.
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Madagascar
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 16, 2025 | 18:29 GMT
An Israeli military truck carries a tank in southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip, on Oct. 14, 2025.
The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire
The ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war will temporarily ease regional diplomatic tensions and free Israeli military resources for other fronts, but a collapse in the coming phases would almost certainly reignite conflict with Hamas, cause diplomatic friction with regional powers and risk a wider escalation involving Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran. On Oct. 15, Israel and Hamas entered negotiations over the second phase of the U.S.-backed 20-point Gaza peace plan that they reached on Oct. 8 as tensions flared over Israel's accusations that Hamas was not complying with the first phase by not releasing enough bodies of Israeli hostages. On Oct. 15, Israel announced that while three bodies handed over by Hamas the previous day were those of Israeli hostages, a fourth body was not. Meanwhile, mediators began discussing the deployment of an initial 1,000-strong Palestinian police force, trained by Egypt and Jordan, to help manage security in Gaza under
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Egypt
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
SnapshotsOct 15, 2025 | 18:16 GMT
Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025.
Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar
In Madagascar, President Andry Rajoelina's ousting in a military coup on the back of widespread Gen Z protests will likely inspire demonstrators elsewhere in Africa and de-escalate political tensions in the near term, though protests risk resurging thereafter due to disagreements over the transition period. On Oct. 14, Col. Michael Randrianirina of the Personnel and Services Administration Corps unit of the army, or CAPSAT, announced that the military would take over government affairs, suspend the constitution and dissolve most state institutions with the exception of the National Assembly, the country's lower house. Randrianirina's announcement, which effectively marked a coup in the island nation, came just after the National Assembly impeached Rajoelina, who was exfiltrated by the French military from the country on Oct. 12. Despite its announced dissolution, Madagascar's High Constitutional Court subsequently called on Randrianirina to serve as head of state on an interim basis and for presidential elections
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Madagascar
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportOct 14, 2025 | 18:29 GMT
Zimbabwe: Vice President's Memo Against President's Allies Leaked as War Veteran Calls for Fresh Protests
In a leaked memo to the politburo of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party, or ZANU-PF, Zimbabwean Vice President Constantino Chiwenga accused four high-profile allies of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa of having looted over $3.2 billion from state coffers and warned Mnangagwa that the conditions that led to the ousting of former President Robert Mugabe were being replicated, New Zimbabwe reported on Oct. 13.
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Zimbabwe
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 14, 2025 | 15:43 GMT
Supporters of Bolivia's presidential candidate for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), Rodrigo Paz, listen to him speak during a campaign rally in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sept. 30, 2025.
Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote
With Bolivia's presidential runoff on Oct. 19 pitting two right-wingers against each other, austerity measures and a foreign policy realignment toward the West are certain, but persisting risks of unrest and a potential future rollback of pro-business measures could extend current high debt and challenges to the country's investment attractiveness. Bolivia will hold its first-ever presidential runoff election on Oct. 19. Right-wing former President Jorge Quiroga of the Freedom and Democracy Alliance (Libre) will face off against center-right Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC). The vote follows general elections on Aug. 17, in which Bolivia's ruling left-wing Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party lost control of the legislative branch and was eliminated from the presidential race. In the first round of the presidential election, Paz received 31% of the vote and Quiroga 26.7%. Pre-election polling for the runoff has indicated that Quiroga is leading. Unitel reported in
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Bolivia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 13, 2025 | 15:36 GMT
Russian flag on a cracked wall, illustrating an economic decline with a downward arrow.
Russia's War Economy Is Faltering
The Russian economy is entering a multi-year stagnation that, while enabling the Kremlin to sustain the war effort over the next 12 months, will steadily erode the fiscal, industrial and technological foundations required to keep fighting at current intensity beyond 2026. On Oct. 7, the World Bank released its ''Fall 2025 Economic Update,'' which projects that Russian real GDP growth will decline from 4.3% in 2024 to 0.9% this year, 0.8% in 2026 and just 1% in 2027. The report describes a war-distorted economy in which tight monetary policy, shrinking private credit and labor shortages have stalled civilian production and only defense orders keep output artificially afloat. The Russian economy's non-defense activity has contracted, consumption has slowed and investment has fallen under high borrowing costs. With military spending at a record high and a drop of 17% in oil revenues, the federal budget deficit grew to 1.7% of GDP in
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Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
ColumnsOct 10, 2025 | 11:17 GMT
President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.
The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution
On Oct. 9, a federal grand jury indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on two counts related to alleged mortgage fraud, making her the most recent of U.S. President Donald Trump's perceived political enemies to face charges. James has drawn Trump's ire for bringing a civil case against him, but her indictment is arguably not the most provocative in the past two weeks. Since returning to the Oval Office in January, Trump has directly taken and indirectly backed steps to target his perceived political enemies, including constant insults, an array of legal investigations and myriad other measures and lingering threats. But Trump's pressure campaign entered new territory on Sept. 25 with the indictment of James Comey, a former FBI director, whom Trump controversially fired during his first term, on two charges linked to allegations he lied in testimony before the Senate in 2020. In the two weeks between the
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United States
Politics
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