AssessmentsJun 15, 2026 | 20:20 GMT
What To Expect if India Starts Halting Indus Water Flows to Pakistan
In the short term, reduced India-Pakistan coordination on river flow data, forecasting and technical communication will likely increase uncertainty and crisis volatility without significantly limiting actual water flows. In the longer term, potential upstream infrastructure expansion and climate stress could increase structural instability and intensify crisis dynamics between the two countries. On June 5, India's Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Indus Waters Treaty, a water-distribution agreement between India and Pakistan, will remain in abeyance until Pakistan fully stops cross-border terrorism, responding to Pakistan's continuous allegations that India is seeking to weaponize water through river infrastructure projects. This follows remarks in April by Pakistan's planning minister, Ahsan Iqbal, that the country had only about 90 days of water storage capacity. This falls well below regional and global benchmarks, with regional economies typically maintaining more than 120 days of storage and the global benchmark standing at roughly 300 days. Iqbal's
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