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AssessmentsDec 12, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024.
Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union
The Tunisian government's likely passage of a contentious finance bill will elevate tensions with the country's largest labor union, opening the door to a potential expansion of strike and protest activity, but reforms to increase production will likely improve the manufacturing and agricultural export sectors. On Dec. 10, Tunisia's 2026 Finance Bill advanced from the National Assembly to President Kais Saied, who is expected to approve it; upon approval, the measure will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The bill combines the annual budget with other financial measures, including wage and pension increases, provisions to improve fiscal consolidation (including a wealth tax to expand Tunisia's tax base), value-added tax reductions on manufacturing and some agricultural production inputs, and reforms to drone laws to boost agricultural profitability. One particularly contentious provision is Article 15, which approves wage increases for public and private sector workers at a reported average annual rate of
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Tunisia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 22:16 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.
Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026
While Ethiopia is unlikely to launch a large-scale invasion of Eritrea in 2026, worsening tensions over sea access and Asmara's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government increase the likelihood of intensifying proxy clashes along the border that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation. On Oct. 28, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for international mediation regarding Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, stressing that maritime access was a "matter of survival" for Ethiopia. This came after Abiy claimed in early September that it was only a "matter of time" before Ethiopia regained access to the Eritrean port of Assab, arguing that the loss of the port following Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia in 1993 had been a "mistake." These comments came as Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, in early October of entering a pact to "wage
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 15:57 GMT
Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.
The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture
Israel's upcoming deployment of a new laser aerial defense system will reduce threats from short-range rockets and drones while reinforcing a long-term push for defense self-sufficiency and expanding opportunities for international defense production partnerships and exports. Israel is set to deploy the Iron Beam laser defense system by the end of the year, following the completion of operational testing of the system in September. The defense ministry and primary Israeli military contractors Elbit and Rafael have confirmed that the first batteries are scheduled for transfer to the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, on Dec. 30. Initial operational use of the system is expected in 2026. If implemented as scheduled, the deployment will make Israel the first country to field a combat-ready laser air defense system. The defense ministry reported that the 100-kilowatt system successfully intercepted missiles, mortar rounds, UAVs and other aerial threats during weeks of testing, demonstrating the ability
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United States
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Yemen
Economics
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 10, 2025 | 19:15 GMT
Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.
U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization
The United States is unlikely to impose an expansive terrorist designation on the Muslim Brotherhood, choosing instead to focus on specific branches and individuals and emboldening anti-Brotherhood governments to take harder stances against the movement. On Nov. 24, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order starting the process to designate chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). The order calls for the secretary of state, secretary of the treasury, attorney general and director of national intelligence to submit a joint report in 30 days regarding the designation of Muslim Brotherhood chapters in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and potentially elsewhere. After 45 days, the White House intends to impose FTO designations on the branches the report finds to be backing terrorism. The move comes against the backdrop of Florida and Texas declaring the Brotherhood and a Brotherhood-affiliated Muslim civil rights organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), as
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United States
Middle East and North Africa
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 10, 2025 | 17:35 GMT
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines
A widening corruption crisis in the Philippines is undermining the president's power, raising the likelihood of policymaking paralysis and political instability, and weakening Manila's capacity to deter China. On Dec. 3, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced a multi-year 15% base pay increase for all civilian, military and uniformed personnel to be implemented in three tranches beginning Jan. 1, 2026, with additional increases scheduled for January 2027 and January 2028. Marcos also approved an increase in the daily subsistence allowance and directed relevant government agencies to prepare implementation guidelines within 30 days. The announcement was delivered in a prerecorded message that emphasized the security services' role in maintaining order amid what Manila has described as "destabilization attempts." The pay directive came less than a week after the Department of Justice and the Independent Commission for Infrastructure issued a new set of investigative orders on Nov. 29, expanding an ongoing corruption
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United States
China
Philippines
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 9, 2025 | 22:26 GMT
A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.
Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa
Benin's failed coup will likely heighten political tensions and undermine counterterrorism operations in the country ahead of its 2026 presidential elections, while ECOWAS's rapid intervention -- driven by Nigeria and with French backing -- signals a potential shift toward Abuja taking greater leadership over regional security matters. On the evening of Dec. 7, the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, announced the immediate deployment of a standby force to Benin comprising troops from Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire and Sierra Leone. This came after mutineers led by the head of Benin's Special Forces Group, Lt. Colonel Pascal Tigri, announced earlier in the day on state media the removal of Beninese President Patrice Talon from power, the suspension of the constitution and the dissolution of state institutions. However, a significant portion of Beninese security forces remained loyal to Talon, who announced in the evening of Dec. 7 that the situation
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Benin
Nigeria
France
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 9, 2025 | 22:01 GMT
A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand.
Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention
The latest round of clashes between Cambodian and Thai forces may yet surpass the scale of their July conflict, and though a return to the ceasefire is likely in the coming days, there will be a high risk of further flare-ups in the months ahead, especially in the lead-up to Thailand's expected elections in March. On Dec. 7, Thai and Cambodian military forces commenced another round of clashes in disputed territories along the two countries' shared border, with fighting still ongoing as of Dec. 9 and involving significant firepower. This includes widespread small arms and artillery fire from both sides, Thailand's use of airstrikes and tanks to strike Cambodian military targets and civilian targets allegedly used by the military (e.g., casinos and scam centers), and Cambodia's use of suicide and bomb-dropping drones against Thai forces. The latest round of fighting has expanded to nearly all border provinces, with the Thai
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United States
Cambodia
Thailand
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 8, 2025 | 20:30 GMT
The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.
The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory
Increased military mobilization, failed negotiations and persistent aggressive rhetoric amid broader geopolitical, ideological and economic goals indicate that the United States will most likely escalate its military campaign in the Caribbean to attacks in Venezuelan territory over the coming days or weeks. Since October, the United States has increased its military presence in the Caribbean, especially with the Nov. 16 arrival of the USS Gerald Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier. The U.S. military has also continued to conduct attacks against alleged drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, which have reached a total of 23 strikes, killing 87 people. Media leaks revealed that in the first of such operations, on Sept. 2, the U.S. military carried out a follow-up strike, potentially killing survivors. The allegations have sparked controversy within the United States, prompting investigations in Congress and raising concerns about the potential commitment of war crimes. Despite
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 8, 2025 | 19:14 GMT
Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.
Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza
Early reconstruction efforts in the Israeli-controlled portion of the Gaza Strip will further advance a de facto partitioning of Gaza, enabling Israel to apply military pressure on Hamas to disarm without returning to full-scale war, preventing significant domestic or international backlash while forestalling a resumption of Houthi attacks. As the Israeli military implements a plan to divide the Gaza Strip, private contractors have begun the construction of the first U.S.-backed semipermanent compound to house Palestinians in Rafah, in the Israeli-controlled portion of the territory. Each so-called "Alternative Safe Community" is projected to be able to eventually house 20,000-25,000 Palestinians and to have schools and medical facilities, but will likely take several months to construct and cost tens of millions of dollars. The U.S.-backed plan proposed the construction of at least six of these compounds. However, even as construction on the first of these compounds begins, several unresolved questions regarding the
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
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