Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MORE
For more targeted results combine or exclude search terms by applying the Boolean Operators AND, OR and AND NOT. Place quotations around your search term to find documents that contain that exact phrase
Search Tools
Situation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 16:14 GMT
Turkey: Ankara To Skip Mid-Year Minimum Wage Raise
In a break from routine, Turkey will not increase its minimum wage mid-year in a bid to further cool inflation and appease investors concerned about the country's economic strategy, Bloomberg reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 15:32 GMT
EU: Bloc Fails To Adopt New Sanctions Package Against Russia
The European Union on June 26 failed to agree on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to refusals by Hungary and Slovakia, but the bloc agreed to extend for another six months all current sanctions against Russia, The Guardian reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
U.S., Mexico: Treasury Restricts U.S. Business With Three Mexican Financial Institutions Accused of Cartel Financing
The U.S. Treasury Department identified Mexican banks CIBanco and Intercam and brokerage company Vector Casa de Bolsa as being of primary money laundering concern in connection with illicit opioid trafficking over alleged laundering of millions of dollars for cartels, according to a June 25 Treasury press release.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
READ MORESnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
READ MORESnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability
The collapse of France's pension reform negotiations could undermine Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's fragile minority government, increasing the risk of no-confidence votes, budgetary deadlock and potentially early elections at a time when the country is facing mounting pressure to rein in its growing deficit. On June 23, months-long negotiations between French unions and employer groups over potential amendments to President Emmanuel Macron's contested 2023 pensions reform collapsed. The talks focused on revising the law that gradually raises France's retirement age from 62 to 64, as part of a last-ditch attempt to ease tensions between the government, trade unions and opposition parties. Prime Minister Bayrou had tasked unions and employers with identifying compromise measures, including earlier retirement options for physically demanding jobs and greater recognition of maternity leave. However, employer groups reportedly opposed any changes that they argued would impose new costs and could threaten the financial balance of the system.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 24, 2025 | 18:55 GMT
Bangladesh: IMF To Release $1.3B After Third and Fourth Loan Review
Under a combined third and fourth review of Bangladesh's ongoing loan program, the International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the release of $1.3 billion, Bloomberg reported on June 24.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 19, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives
Facing fiscal and political constraints, Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan within broader EU and multilateral frameworks to secure greater financial and political backing and punch above its weight in advancing energy diversification and migration management goals in Africa. But structural limitations will likely constrain Rome's ability to expand its influence on the continent beyond a narrow set of strategic interests. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair a high-level summit in Rome on June 20, bringing together leaders from several African countries and key multilateral financial institutions to advance Italy's strategic development initiative for Africa, known as the Mattei Plan for Africa, and align it with the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure and connectivity investment framework. Discussions will center on shared priorities, such as advancing sustainable infrastructure, energy cooperation, digital and physical connectivity, vocational training
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 21:22 GMT
To Thwart Militant Attacks, Israel Cracks Down on the West Bank
Israel's lockdown in the West Bank will likely reduce the threat of a major terror attack in the near term, but it will also worsen Palestinians' grievances and sustain the risk of a larger uprising in the territory, while potentially fueling tensions within Israel's coalition government. Following Israel's June 13 attacks on Iran, Israel has implemented a lockdown throughout the West Bank. The Israeli army has restricted movement from smaller towns and villages to larger cities -- such as Nablus, Qalqiya, and Tulkarem -- by closing some city entrances, blocking certain roads, and imposing more checkpoints. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has also reportedly displaced Palestinian families in parts of the West Bank, seizing their homes due to their strategic military locations. In addition, the IDF has closed all entrances to Jericho and Bethlehem, and has blocked the King Hussein Bridge connecting the West Bank to Jordan. Furthermore, in East
READ MORESituation ReportJun 18, 2025 | 21:02 GMT
U.S.: Senate Passes Landmark Cryptocurrency Legislation
The U.S. Senate passed first-of-its-kind bipartisan cryptocurrency legislation aimed at creating guardrails for "stablecoins," which are digital assets fixed to a fiat currency, CNN reported on June 17.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 18, 2025 | 19:45 GMT
Mozambique: TotalEnergies CEO Confirms Plan To Resume Work on Mozambique LNG 'This Summer'
The CEO of French multinational energy company TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, said he expected the development of the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project to resume "this summer," Reuters reported on June 18.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsJun 17, 2025 | 21:10 GMT
Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?
The absence of a coherent post-war governance plan for the Gaza Strip has raised questions about who will control the territory, the role of foreign actors, including the United States, and how reconstruction will be funded. Without a viable solution, these uncertainties increase the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation and further empower far-right forces in Israel to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 17, 2025 | 18:47 GMT
New Zealand, China: Luxon Walks Tightrope on Trade and Security in First China Visit
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon arrived in China for a four-day visit, his first to the country since assuming office in late 2023, The New Zealand Herald reported on June 17.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 17, 2025 | 16:56 GMT
U.S. Review of AUKUS Pillar I Puts Pact on Shaky Ground
The U.S. review of AUKUS Pillar I puts the deal in jeopardy, but strong strategic imperatives mean Washington is more likely to revise the pact than scrap Pillar I outright. On June 11, the U.S. Department of Defense formally launched a 30-day review of AUKUS Pillar I, the nuclear-powered submarine component of the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States signed in 2021. According to the Pentagon, the review aims to evaluate if the AUKUS submarine deal aligns with U.S. military capacity, industrial readiness and national interests pursuant to the Trump administration's "America First" doctrine. U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, a known AUKUS sceptic, will oversee the review, assessing the feasibility and desirability of delivering up to five Virginia‑class attack submarines to Australia. The review will have no immediate direct bearing on Pillar II, but its outcome will have significant implications for its
READ MORESituation ReportJun 17, 2025 | 16:37 GMT
Mali: Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto Gold Mining Complex Placed Under State Control
Malian court appointed an administrator to run Canadian mining company Barrick Mining's Loulo-Gounkoto gold mining complex for an initial period of six months, the Financial Times reported on June 16.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 16, 2025 | 17:24 GMT
Sudan: Nairobi To Face Global Scrutiny as Kenyan Weapons Found in RSF Depot
The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, found crates of ammunition and mortar bombs ordered by the Kenyan Ministry of Defense and dated from 2023 and 2024 in recaptured weapon depots belonging to Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Daily Nation and Bellingcat reported on June 15.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 14, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: G7 Leaders' Summit, More Israeli Attacks on Iran
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 12, 2025 | 19:38 GMT
Africa: China-Africa Statement Rebukes Trump Trade Policies as Beijing Extends Tariff-Free Trade Offer
China and 53 African countries criticized the United States’ protectionist trade policy and expressed their opposition to "any party reaching a compromise deal at the expense of the interests of other countries," following a joint China-Africa ministerial meeting, Reuters reported on June 11.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 12, 2025 | 18:04 GMT
Global: World Bank Reverses Ban on Funding Nuclear Power Projects
The World Bank's executive board lifted the bank's long-standing ban on funding nuclear power programs in a June 10 vote, Bloomberg reported June 11, citing a staff note sent to employees that day.
READ MORE