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On GeopoliticsSep 15, 2025 | 21:45 GMT
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil.
Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge structural changes in Brazil's society and power dynamics, reliance on policies from his previous time in office, and prioritization of international affairs over domestic issues have translated into a presidency that struggles to resonate with voters and will become a challenge for his 2026 reelection bid.
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Brazil
Politics
AssessmentsSep 15, 2025 | 21:16 GMT
From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations
In the United States, rollbacks of federal efforts to counter foreign influence, coupled with weakening private sector content moderation, will more easily facilitate nation-state online influence operations. These operations will enable a greater proliferation of disinformation designed to stoke societal tensions, diminish faith in democratic institutions and influence public sentiments and government policy. On Aug. 20, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced plans to further slash staff for her office, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the country's intelligence community. In conjunction with previous cuts announced in February, the latest cuts will reduce the office's personnel by nearly 50%. The most recent cuts center on consolidating teams focused on countering cyber threats and influence operations, and they include shrinking the Foreign Malign Influence Center, which serves as the primary organization for integrating intelligence on foreign influence operations, including efforts to influence U.S. elections. While
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United States
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsSep 12, 2025 | 19:44 GMT
A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha.
The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar
Israel's airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states. In the past few days, Qatari authorities, other countries in the region, European states and even the United States -- reportedly informed of the attack only as it was taking place -- all condemned Israel’s Sept. 9 airstrikes in Doha. The Israeli airstrikes in Doha did not succeed in killing the Hamas leaders Israel was targeting, though six others were killed. The incident was the first Israeli attack on a close U.S. ally in modern times. It was all the more significant given Qatar's designation as a major non-NATO ally of the United States, a status that signifies the closest security ties Washington can have with a foreign country that is not a NATO member.
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United States
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Lebanon
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportSep 12, 2025 | 16:34 GMT
Pacific Islands: Annual Summit Advances Climate, Peace and Autonomy Initiatives
At the annual Pacific Islands Forum leaders' summit, which took place in the Solomon Islands capital of Honiara, PIF leaders rejected a Chinese proposal to remove Taiwan from the forum framework and reaffirmed its status as a "development partner," the Australian Financial Review reported on Sept. 12.
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Asia-Pacific
Australia
China
Taiwan
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsSep 11, 2025 | 22:08 GMT
In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.
How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession
In Kazakhstan, proposed institutional reforms are meant to tighten the regime's hold on power, but they will not guarantee a smooth transition or prevent Russian attempts to manipulate political events once President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev steps down. On Sept. 8, President Tokayev used his annual State of the Nation address to the Parliament to propose constitutional changes that would abolish Kazakhstan's upper chamber, the Senate, and create a unicameral legislature. Framed as the next phase of political reform, Tokayev's proposal calls for at least a year of public debate followed by a nationwide referendum in 2027. In a separate but related step, Tokayev also proposed an electoral change: shifting back to elections conducted exclusively by party lists. Together, these moves mark Kazakhstan's most significant political reform since the January 2022 protests, which triggered constitutional amendments that altered the composition of the Mazhilis, the lower chamber, by reintroducing a mixed electoral system
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China
Kazakhstan
Russia
Politics
SnapshotsSep 9, 2025 | 21:31 GMT
Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption.
Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation
In Nepal, violent unrest and political uncertainty will likely persist for at least the coming days, while the crisis will probably deepen the country's years-long political instability and sustain the possibility of further eruptions of unrest in the future. On Sept. 9, Nepalese Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned amid intensifying violent protests that erupted on Sept. 8, triggered by authorities' ban on some two dozen social media platforms and anger over corruption. Much of the unrest has remained concentrated in the capital Kathmandu, where demonstrators set fire to several Nepalese officials' homes and to the parliament building. Authorities have also shuttered Tribhuvan International Airport, the country's main international airport. Protesters, who have referred to themselves as Gen Z, have accused authorities of imposing the social media ban to limit free speech and censor criticism, and they have highlighted the move as part of a broader, flawed political system that
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Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsSep 8, 2025 | 22:03 GMT
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on Sept. 6, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan.
In Japan, Ishiba's Resignation Sparks a Volatile Party Leadership Contest
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation sets up a volatile party leadership contest between conservative and reformer candidates, with the former risking controversial anti-foreigner stances and strained China-South Korea ties, and the latter likely prioritizing domestic economic issues at the expense of foreign policy commitments. On Sept. 7, Ishiba announced at a press conference that he planned to resign from his position as soon as his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, picked a replacement for him as party president. Ishiba cited his recent completion of negotiations on a U.S.-Japan trade deal as a reason for the timing of his decision, as he had stated on July 20 that he would not resign while trade talks remained unfinished. In addition, his announcement was likely intended to preempt the LDP's upcoming vote on whether to hold an early party presidential election, which was forecast to pass. This comes after Ishiba,
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Japan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportSep 8, 2025 | 21:50 GMT
U.S., China: Beijing Threat Actors Impersonated U.S. Lawmaker To Gather Intelligence on Trade Talks
U.S. federal officials are investigating a purported Chinese-linked social engineering campaign that impersonated a Republican lawmaker and targeted several trade groups, law firms and government agencies in mid-July, apparently in an effort to garner insights about ongoing U.S.-Chinese trade talks, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 7.
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United States
China
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
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