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On GeopoliticsMay 22, 2025 | 19:43 GMT
A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.
Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later
Amid China's slower-than-expected post-COVID economy recovery, Chinese policymakers have been focused on reviving consumption as an engine of economic growth. This focus is partly due to the lagging performance of most traditional drivers of Chinese economic growth -- e.g. real estate and infrastructure -- with the exception of exports, which have experienced strong growth through early 2025 but are now under threat by U.S. tariffs and broader Western protectionism. It is also partly due to Beijing's long-term economic reform plan to transition away from these less capital-efficient traditional growth drivers and toward a higher reliance on consumption, a plan intended to improve the stability of Chinese economic growth while making China less reliant on volatile export markets. 
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China
Economics
Global Trade
ColumnsMay 22, 2025 | 18:13 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow.
The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy
Since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia has poured vast reserves of funding, equipment and manpower alike into its war effort, and its economy bears the wounds to prove it, made worse by mounting Western sanctions. However, a largely qualitative analysis of Russia's economy suggests that Moscow could continue its war with Ukraine at current levels of intensity for at least another two to three years under current economic constraints. This extended timeline may reduce the Russian government's incentive to negotiate a political settlement as long as Western support for Ukraine does not force Moscow to dig significantly deeper into its dwindling resources.
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Russia
Economics
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsMay 21, 2025 | 21:57 GMT
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat during a Liberal Party election night event on May 3, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia.
Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor
In Australia, the collapse of the conservative coalition between the Liberal Party and National Party will fracture opposition to the ruling Labor Party's agenda, granting the government freer rein to implement energy transition, industrial investment and fiscal reform policies. On May 20, Australia's main opposition group, the center-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNC), formally split amid deepening urban-rural divides over energy and economic direction, marking the end of one of the longest-standing political partnerships in the country's history. The collapse came after negotiations on a renewed coalition agreement broke down over major policy divisions, especially around energy, with the National Party demanding an aggressive push for nuclear power and fossil fuel development, while the Liberal Party leaned toward a more moderate, suburban-friendly climate and emissions policy. Other points of contention included rural subsidies, carbon market regulation, and transmission line infrastructure for renewables, all of which revealed a deepening philosophical divergence between the
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Australia
Politics
AssessmentsMay 21, 2025 | 19:41 GMT
Supporters of Kim Moon Soo, the opposition candidate running in South Korea's June 3 presidential election, react during a campaign event in Seoul on May 19, 2025.
South Korea's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
South Korea will hold an early presidential election on June 3 following the April impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his martial law declaration in December. The ruling People Power Party, or PPP, will fight to hold the presidency despite the martial law legacy left by Yoon, while the opposition Democratic Party, or DPK, will seek to take advantage of the early election and low support for the PPP, driven by Yoon's martial law gambit, to assume the presidency for the first time since 2022. The winner will have a five-year term and will not be eligible for reelection. Due to Yoon's impeachment, the new president will take office immediately after the election. 
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South Korea
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 20, 2025 | 20:56 GMT
A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta.
Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices?
Nigeria will likely avoid major fiscal slippage and a liquidity crisis in 2025 if Brent oil prices stay around $60-65 a barrel, but declining oil prices risk exacerbating socioeconomic grievances by adding upward pressure on already high inflation, which would heighten protest risks and facilitate recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups. On May 12, the World Bank warned that Nigeria's 2025 budget relied on "overly ambitious revenue assumptions" that could result in a higher-than-anticipated fiscal deficit. These warnings come as global oil prices have steeply declined since the start of April following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of "reciprocal" U.S. tariffs, which fuelled concerns of a slowdown in global economic growth. Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on those tariffs enabled prices to rebound in mid-April, but the price of Brent -- the global benchmark for oil -- once again slipped below $60 a barrel in early May following OPEC+'s
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Nigeria
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsMay 20, 2025 | 20:38 GMT
Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.
Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials
Trade tensions between the United States and other countries -- especially China -- are fueling concerns among U.S. multinational corporations about disruptions to critical raw materials supply chains. As a result, numerous clients have reached out to RANE in recent months for help evaluating the importance and applications of various critical raw materials, analyzing their value chains and predicting potential supply chain threats. These questions can be particularly daunting since many U.S. multinationals are far removed from the initial part of their value chains, with most critical raw materials mining, processing and fabrication often done by distant suppliers. Knowledge among companies is often even scarcer regarding niche or obscure critical raw materials that are nonetheless vital to their operations. As the risk of supply chain disruptions rises, companies that proactively develop contingency plans will be able to navigate these dangers most effectively.
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United States
China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
AssessmentsMay 19, 2025 | 19:19 GMT
Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan hold the movement's flag during a demonstration in the capital, Amman, on Nov. 28, 2014.
In Jordan, a Ban Pushes the Muslim Brotherhood Underground
Jordan's ban on the Muslim Brotherhood is unlikely to cause broader political unrest as long as the group's political wing remains intact, but Iranian support for the Muslim Brotherhood's militant factions and worsening economic grievances will maintain the threat of social unrest and militancy. Just over a month has passed since Jordanian security forces announced on April 15 that they had arrested 16 individuals linked to the Muslim Brotherhood after thwarting a plot by the organization to attack various domestic targets. A week later, Jordan banned the Muslim Brotherhood, seized the group's assets and prohibited individuals from promoting its political Islamist ideology. Since then, however, Jordan's crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood has largely spared the Islamic Action Front, or IAF, which is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and has the largest number of seats in Jordan's National Assembly. Against this backdrop and amid U.S. concerns about instability in
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United States
Iran
Jordan
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 19, 2025 | 18:53 GMT
A digital illustration of the U.K. and EU flags.
The U.K.-EU Deal Signals a Strategic Recalibration of Post-Brexit Trade and Defense Relations
The new U.K.-EU agreements will institutionalize security and defense cooperation and ease post-Brexit trade frictions through targeted initiatives on agrifood, carbon markets and regulatory alignment, though lingering political constraints will continue to limit deeper integration in the near term. The United Kingdom and the European Union reached a series of agreements at a summit in London on May 19, including a security and defense pact and a common understanding paper charting paths for future cooperation across multiple policy areas. The security and defense agreement establishes a biannual strategic dialogue between London and Brussels, as well as various coordination mechanisms on addressing hybrid threats, enforcing sanctions and aligning positions on Ukraine and other foreign policy issues. On trade, the United Kingdom agreed to extend EU access to British fishing waters through 2038. In exchange, the European Union granted the United Kingdom a veterinary agreement to reduce border checks and paperwork on
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Europe
United Kingdom
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 16, 2025 | 20:34 GMT
Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address in Lima on July 28, 2024.
In Peru, Greater Political Stability Could Unleash Economic Growth
In Peru, heightened political instability has so far not led to economic crises or financial turmoil, but likely reduced institutional volatility under a new administration, combined with efforts to reduce bureaucratic red tape, could help the country attract foreign investment and leverage its potential as a key mining and trade hub in the region. On May 5, Peru's opposition in Congress filed an internal investigation request claiming President Dina Boluarte violated the constitution when she allegedly temporarily abandoned her role in June 2023 to undergo plastic surgery in secret -- something Boluarte has repeatedly denied. This comes on top of other investigations Boluarte is facing over alleged human rights violations, corruption and embezzlement, along with accusations that her government has failed to curb the growing presence of organized criminal groups in Peru's cities and mining areas. Amid the worsening security crisis, Boluarte's popularity has plummeted, with her approval rating now
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Peru
Economics
Politics
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