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AssessmentsApr 8, 2026 | 14:07 GMT
A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine.
Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure
Ukraine's ongoing attacks on Russian Baltic energy infrastructure are likely to result in additional rounds of Russian hybrid aggression against the Baltic countries rather than a direct attack on any NATO states, though the risk of an incident spiraling out of control will persist. On April 7, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania of facilitating Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian territory, particularly targeting energy infrastructure in the northwest of the country. Zakharova warned that Moscow would "respond" if such support continued, framing the alleged assistance as direct involvement in the ongoing war with Ukraine. Officials from the Baltic states rejected the claims, describing them as disinformation intended to justify Russian pressure and undermine their support for Ukraine. The European Commission, in turn, emphasized that member states have the right to support Ukraine's self-defense and rejected Russian attempts at intimidation. EU officials reiterated that any threat
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Europe
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Eurasia
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsApr 7, 2026 | 20:33 GMT
Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi answers questions at a legislative budget committee session in Tokyo on April 7, 2026, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (left) looks on.
Reviewing Japan's New Budget: Balancing Spending Hikes and Fiscal Reality
Japan's new budget will enable increases in strategic investments and defense expenditure, but future spending increases will remain constrained by relatively low economic growth and a large, if manageable, government debt burden. On April 7, Japan's upper legislative chamber approved the fiscal year 2026 budget proposed by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, weeks after the lower house gave its ascent. Following her decisive victory in the February lower-house elections, Takaichi is partly trying to emulate former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's economic policies by increasing fiscal deficit spending and raising investment in critical economic sectors. Furthermore, the budget aims to accelerate strategic, state-led investments across seventeen priority sectors, including artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing and shipbuilding. These investments are designed to bolster economic resilience and foster long-term productivity growth amid demographic challenges and sluggish economic growth. Following a supplemental budget passed last December, which aimed to raise defense expenditure to 2% of
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Japan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsApr 7, 2026 | 19:42 GMT
The Geopolitics of Demographics
Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences
Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Geopolitics of Demographics
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsApr 6, 2026 | 21:31 GMT
The exterior facade of the Legislative Palace of Peru is seen in Lima.
Peru's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Peru will hold general elections on April 12, with a runoff on June 7 if no candidate obtains more than 50% of the vote. Peruvians will elect a president, two vice presidents, the 130 members of the Chamber of Deputies and, for the first time in over three decades, a 60-seat Senate, marking the return of a bicameral legislative system. The presidential race is characterized by severe political fragmentation, with a record 35 candidates vying for the top office. Leading candidates are polling in the low double digits, and many voters remain undecided, setting the stage for late swings in voter sentiment and an unpredictable outcome. The legislative election, meanwhile, will likely result in multiple center-right parties gaining most seats, especially since this year marks the end of a ban on immediate legislative reelection. Such an outcome would likely improve the governability conditions of a right-wing president but become an
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Peru
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportApr 6, 2026 | 20:39 GMT
Hungary, Serbia: Authorities Claim To Foil Pipeline Sabotage Plot but Face False-Flag Allegations
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic claimed Serbian authorities discovered "an explosive of devastating power" near a gas pipeline connecting his country to Hungary, leading Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to imply, without directly attributing blame, that Ukrainian saboteurs were responsible, Politico reported on April 5.
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Serbia
Hungary
Ukraine
Russia
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 6, 2026 | 14:57 GMT
A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.
India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment
India is cautiously easing select investment and import restrictions with China to address critical shortages, while maintaining safeguards and limiting sensitive exposure. However, relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures due to enduring structural and security tensions. On March 27, the Indian government allowed some state-owned companies, including Bharat Heavy Electricals and the Steel Authority of India, to import certain critical equipment from China, helping state-run power and coal companies address shortages and project delays. The decision came weeks after India's Cabinet on March 10 partially eased restrictions on foreign investment from neighboring countries sharing a land border. While the countries affected by this policy also include Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan and Afghanistan, the practical impact is most significant for China because of the size of its economy and its very large amount of capital available for investment compared to other neighboring countries.
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Iran
China
Myanmar
Afghanistan
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsApr 3, 2026 | 19:21 GMT
Iraqi women light candles in memory of the victims of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon during a rally in Baghdad's Tahrir Square on April 2, 2026.
Iraq Is Caught in the Crossfire of Another Destabilizing War
In Iraq, violent spillover from the Iran conflict will further strain pre-existing domestic divisions, while likely stalling the government formation process and fueling U.S. pressure for militias to disarm; reduced state revenue from disrupted oil exports will also hamper public service provision and push Iraq to increase borrowing. On April 2, the U.S. embassy in Baghdad urged Americans to leave the country, warning that "Iraqi terrorist militia groups aligned with Iran may intend to conduct attacks in central Baghdad in the next 24-48 hours." The alert followed U.S. claims that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), had kidnapped an American journalist working in Baghdad on March 31. Since the United States and Israel began striking Iran in late February, PMF militias have conducted numerous retaliatory attacks across Iraq, including against the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, U.S. military bases and hotels frequented by Americans in the
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 1, 2026 | 16:44 GMT
A campaign billboard featuring a portrait of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is seen in Budapest's 3rd district on March 27, 2026.
Hungary's Upcoming Elections May Unseat Orban After 16 Years
Hungary's upcoming parliamentary elections could put a pro-EU government in power after more than a decade of euroskeptic, nationalist rule under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, but the Fidesz party's entrenched control over national institutions and legal levers would still significantly constrain reforms and could even enable the party to obstruct the transition of power altogether.
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Europe
Hungary
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsMar 31, 2026 | 17:02 GMT
This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.
How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold
The United States will boost defense and economic cooperation, leverage development finance and make military and economic threats to pressure Latin American governments to favor U.S. interests and counter China, but outcomes will vary depending on their economic reliance and ideological affinity with Washington. On March 7, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted 12 ideologically aligned Latin American leaders at the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Florida. The event created a coalition to fight drug trafficking with military means and counter "hostile foreign influence" in the Western Hemisphere. It marked a new step in Washington's efforts to formally establish U.S. primacy in the region by limiting rivals' influence (especially from China, Russia and Iran), rewarding aligned governments, expanding security partnerships and securing U.S. firms' access to critical material supply chains. The summit was the latest example of the White House's enforcement of a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine (dubbed
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Americas
United States
China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsMar 31, 2026 | 15:48 GMT
The Geopolitics of Natural Resources
The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the global energy sector, and it is, for all intents and purposes, closed. Only a trickle of crude oil, natural gas, petrochemicals, helium and fertilizers is transiting the strait amid safety concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has entered its second month. While over the last decade many people -- myself included -- have argued that data is the new oil, this crisis is proving that black gold remains one of the most critical resources worldwide. And the impacts don't stop there. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing not just an energy crisis, but far-reaching shortages of natural resources and critical raw materials on which the global economy depends. These compounding crises are exposing the flaws in a global economic system that relies on a key post-Cold War assumption: resource supply chains will not be severed.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsMar 30, 2026 | 00:00 GMT
2026 Second-Quarter Forecast
The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.
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AssessmentsMar 27, 2026 | 18:42 GMT
A general view of power lines near the Lethabo power station between Vereeniging and Sasolburg, South Africa, on April 17, 2024.
The Outlook for South Africa's Power Sector Reforms and Energy Security
South Africa's power sector reforms will likely spur rising investment in electricity generation and transmission projects despite remaining years away from completion, but the country remains exposed to a high risk of resurging rolling blackouts from 2029 onward if it presses ahead with plans to decommission many of its coal-fired power plants.
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South Africa
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
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