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AssessmentsJan 8, 2025 | 15:54 GMT
A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025.
Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War
Israel will likely expand its campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, first focusing on targeted strikes on Houthi military infrastructure and officials; but when this likely fails to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war. Israel has recently escalated its air campaign against the Houthi movement in Yemen in response to repeated Houthi attacks on Israel. Most recently, on Dec. 26, Israel struck Yemen's capital of Sanaa, including its airport, as well as ports and power plants in places like the key port city of Hodeidah. The strikes came just a few days after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that the Israeli military would soon start targeting Houthi leaders, as it had with Hamas and Hezbollah. Despite the threat, Houthi political bureau member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said that while the group expected escalations from both Israel
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Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 2, 2024 | 21:12 GMT
Rebel fighters pose for a picture on a tank on a road leading to Syria's northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 30, 2024.
Syria's Frozen Civil War Heats Up As Rebels Seize Aleppo
Rapid rebel advances in northern Syria will expand the civil war into further factionalism, threaten Iranian supply lines to Lebanon, and eventually destabilize the Syrian government by exacerbating its economic and security challenges. On Nov. 30, the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham claimed control of Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, in a lightning advance against Syrian government forces. The insurgents and other associated militias continued their advance southward toward the Syrian city of Hama while also consolidating control of much of northern Syria, including taking territories previously held by Kurdish forces as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces. By Dec. 2, Syrian forces had dug in around Hama in an attempt to halt further rebel advances. Meanwhile, Russia increased the scale of its air campaign against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters now entrenched in Aleppo. Fighting also broke out elsewhere in the country, including in Damascus and Suwayda, though as of
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Syria
Economics
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT
Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.
Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis
Despite threats to the de facto cease-fire in Yemen's civil war, economic vulnerabilities will likely constrain the Houthis while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to disengage from the conflict; a major escalation in fighting is thus unlikely, and even if the Houthis attack Gulf energy infrastructure, there would likely be space for de-escalation. Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza in October 2023, Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militants have attacked Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians. Over the past year, these attacks have garnered far more attention than the domestic and regional security threats generated by the Houthis' ongoing war in Yemen against the Saudi-backed coalition supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government. However, multiple events have threatened to escalate the conflict in Yemen, which has been in a de facto cease-fire since April 2022. In July 2024, the Houthis threatened to
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United States
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsNov 12, 2024 | 23:07 GMT
On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.
Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory
In February 2024, we argued that Ukraine's structural manpower deficit and limited ability to deepen its strike campaign inside Russia amid underwhelming Western support constituted major obstacles to Ukraine's ability to enter negotiations with Russia from a position of strength or win the war outright. Since then, the deployment of North Korean troops in support of Russia, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election and Russia's accelerating advances in recent weeks have offered an opportunity to update the key forces of the war.
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United States
North Korea
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
On GeopoliticsOct 30, 2024 | 20:29 GMT
People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.
The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula
In recent months, North and South Korea have taken a wide variety of actions along their shared border that have increasingly threatened a long-standing, if unsteady, peace on the Korean Peninsula. These include military provocations and propaganda initiatives that, alongside longer-term shifts in national doctrine related to inter-Korean relations, have removed impediments to escalation. The Koreans are, of course, no stranger to fears of war, with the Korean War never technically concluded and the border area serving as one of the most heavily armed peacetime regions in the world for decades. Still, the recent trajectory of events on the peninsula brings a higher chance for military clashes that, even though they are likely to be limited and not escalate to full-scale war, would accelerate the formation of defensive blocs in Asia and create geopolitical ripple effects far beyond the Korean Peninsula.
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North Korea
South Korea
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 23, 2024 | 14:20 GMT
The Hywind Tampen floating offshore wind farm, situated between energy company Equinor's oil and gas fields Snorre and Gullfaks in the Norwegian North Sea off the coast of Bergen.
Russia's Increasingly Aggressive Sabotage Threatens Europe's Offshore Energy Network
Although Russia is growing more likely to target Europe's offshore energy infrastructure, Moscow will likely seek to avoid excessive economic or societal disruptions that would significantly heighten escalatory risks. In recent weeks, European governments and media have warned of increasingly aggressive and dangerous actions from Russia in its now months-long sabotage, espionage and destabilization campaign across the Continent. On Oct. 14, Thomas Haldewang, head of Germany's domestic intelligence service, warned the German parliament about "aggressive behavior" by the Russian intelligence services, noting a rise in both the quantity and sophistication of espionage and sabotage operations by Russian actors in Germany and stressing that Moscow is willing to "put human lives at risk" as part of these activities. Striking a similar tone, Ken McCallum, head of the United Kingdom's domestic security and counter-intelligence agency MI5, noted on Oct. 8 that Russia's military intelligence agency GRU is conducting sabotage operations in the
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Germany
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
Russia
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportOct 22, 2024 | 16:25 GMT
South Korea, Ukraine: Seoul Considers Sending Arms, Intelligence Officials to Ukraine
After a meeting of South Korea's presidential National Security Council, Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo warned of phased response measures in proportion to the degree of North Korea-Russia military cooperation in the Russia-Ukraine war, Yonhap News Agency reported on Oct. 22.
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North Korea
South Korea
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsSep 27, 2024 | 21:00 GMT
A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.
With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine
Russia's recently announced changes to its nuclear doctrine are unlikely to have much success in limiting Western support to Ukraine, but Russia remains unlikely to use nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future because its battlefield position and leverage over Ukraine will likely remain secure. On Sept. 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that, as the result of an inter-agency analysis, he was proposing several key changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine that would be imminently approved. Putin said the list of governments and alliances against which Russia exercises nuclear deterrence would be expanded, as would the list of threats that could warrant a nuclear response by Russia. Specifically, the Russian president announced that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state that was backed by a nuclear-armed country would now be considered a ''joint attack'' that could elicit the use of nuclear weapons. Additionally, Putin specified that Russia would consider deploying its
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Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsSep 26, 2024 | 15:32 GMT
A man in Beirut, Lebanon, holds a walkie-talkie after removing its battery on Sept. 18, 2024, during a funeral for people killed when hundreds of paging devices exploded across the country the previous day.
Israel's Pager Attack Renews Focus on Supply Chains' Physical Security
Few security services have the intent and capability to replicate Israel's unprecedented attacks against Hezbollah's electronics, but many will find new ways to physically tamper with devices for mass surveillance by exploiting the complexity of global supply chains, especially after devices' final assembly and with the help of insiders. On Sept. 17-18, Israel carried out a series of coordinated attacks targeting Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria, killing nearly 40 people and injuring over 3,000 others. Many details of the operation are still unclear, but a wide variety of media reporting indicates Israeli spies set up front companies to produce pagers and two-way radios containing a small amount of explosive material and a remote activation capability; these were then shipped to Hezbollah under the guise of legitimate products from reputable manufacturers. Israel allegedly began shipping the tampered devices in mid-2022, but sped up the deliveries in early 2024 after Hezbollah
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Israel
Lebanon
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsSep 12, 2024 | 17:04 GMT
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland.
How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?
If elected U.S. president in November, Kamala Harris will likely seek to maintain support to Ukraine around current levels in 2025, but developments on the battlefield and Russia's more aggressive actions against the West could result in stronger U.S. support for Kyiv or, in less likely scenarios, U.S. pressure on Ukraine to accept a peace deal or a broader NATO-Russia conflict. During her speech at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, Harris spoke in favor of continuing military and financial support to Ukraine and criticized Republican candidate Donald Trump's stance on the issue, saying that while ''Trump encouraged Putin to invade our allies… As President, I will stand with Ukraine and our NATO allies.'' Her remarks on Ukraine starkly contrasted with those made by Trump in the Sept. 10 presidential debate with Harris, where he twice declined to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war, and instead
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsSep 11, 2024 | 15:49 GMT
A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.
A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation
Recent Western government allegations and media revelations suggest Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets is increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks and slowly bringing NATO and Russia closer to direct confrontation. In recent days, Western governments have leveled a series of accusations against Russia, while media outlets have disclosed other claims about aggressive Russian behavior. On Sept. 5, the United States and nine other Western countries accused Russia of being responsible for a series of disruptive cyberattacks against Ukraine in 2020 and numerous attacks, largely for the purpose of espionage, against targets across the globe since then. The 10 countries specifically blamed Unit 29155 of Russia's GRU military intelligence agency, infamous for carrying out assassinations, sabotage and other aggressive attacks throughout Europe for at least a decade. Also on Sept. 6, CNN reported -- citing two unnamed U.S. officials -- that
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United States
Europe
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Russia
Cyber
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsJul 8, 2024 | 21:22 GMT
An image of the Tajik flag.
In Tajikistan, a Looming Succession Risks Fueling Instability and Radicalization
The structural reasons for Tajikistan's vulnerability to instability and radicalization will likely persist, and could be exacerbated by a looming succession, underscoring continued security risks for neighboring states and the wider region. On July 3, leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan, for their annual summit. Security was of particular resonance this year given the growing terrorism and stability threats emanating from the Taliban-led Afghanistan, which have garnered greater attention after several Tajik citizens linked to Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow on March 22. To this end, on July 4, SCO states announced the establishment of an anti-drug center and the upgrading of a regional anti-terrorist structure into a universal security center that will respond to the entire spectrum of security threats in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. But statements leading up to the summit demonstrated continued tensions between SCO member
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Tajikistan
Military & Security
Politics
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