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AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 15:05 GMT
Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.
Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain
After years of stagnation, the German economy will receive a boost from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure, but a failure to implement flanking structural reform will mean that the boost to medium-term economic growth will be limited. In recent weeks, numerous media reports have cast doubt on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ambitious plans to reform the economy. Since taking office in May after forming a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority between his center-right Christian Democratic Union or CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party or SPD, Merz's government has reformed the constitutionally mandated limits on government deficits and has committed to significant increases in defense expenditure and infrastructure, especially of transport. The new government has also agreed to implement reforms aimed at reducing growth-impeding bureaucratic rules governing product markets and infrastructure investment. However, despite these goals, thus far intra-coalition disagreements have translated into more limited practical results
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Germany
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 28, 2025 | 21:01 GMT
The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo.
Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance
Upcoming elections for Egypt's House of Representatives will almost certainly yield another lower legislative chamber that strongly supports President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's priorities, including fiscal consolidation and potential efforts to extend his term. Next month, Egyptians will start casting ballots for all 568 elected seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the country's parliament. The first round will be held Nov. 10-11, followed by the second round on Dec. 3-4. Per Egypt's constitution, the House of Representatives has the authority to draft laws, approve the annual budget and oversee the executive branch. In practice, however, it has provided almost no checks and balances to the executive due to the overwhelming dominance of parties aligned with President al-Sisi; of the body's 596 elected seats, 448 are currently held by pro-government lawmakers, while independents hold 124 seats and opposition parties hold only 24. The upcoming elections are unlikely to
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Egypt
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsOct 28, 2025 | 17:50 GMT
Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding.
Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support
The end of a political pact between Spain's governing party and a Catalan regional party will deepen legislative paralysis, undermine Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's ability to govern, and open the door to an early election amid mounting domestic and international pressures. On Oct. 27, Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party announced the end of its political pact with Spain's ruling Socialist Party, accusing the government of not honoring the terms of their agreement. In a press conference, Junts leader and former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont said the party was ''not willing to keep helping a government that does not help Catalonia.'' As a consequence of this decision, a consultation forum between Junts and the Socialist Party (which had facilitated 19 meetings between the two parties over the past two years) will be dissolved. Reacting to Junts' announcement, the Socialist Party issued a press release saying that it remains open to dialogue with
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Spain
Politics
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025.
U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag
The United States will likely use sanctions relief leverage to de-escalate tensions between Syria and Israel and support Syria's economic and reconstruction recovery efforts, while continuing to provide sufficient, albeit diminished, support to the Kurds, enabling them to slow-walk integration with the Syrian government. In recent weeks, the U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, has met with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and visited the Kurdish-majority northeastern city of al-Hasaka to discuss mechanisms to facilitate the integration of the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the Syrian central government. In March, the SDF and al-Sharaa reached an agreement to integrate SDF institutions into the state, but little progress has been made after separate outbreaks of violence between government forces and minority Alawites and Druze communities led the SDF to seek to maintain their arms out of concern for similar clashes with government forces. However, following Barrack's visits and
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United States
Israel
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 15:45 GMT
Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.
The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections
Argentina's Oct. 26 midterms will determine whether the government can advance its pro-market reforms or face a sharp decline in governability and investor confidence. A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant devaluation of the peso, renewed capital controls and heightened political instability. Argentina will hold legislative elections on Oct. 26 to pick 127 out of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate. The vote comes two years after libertarian President Javier Milei was elected and at a time when his administration faces significant challenges to pass legislation because of its minority position in the Argentine Congress. The government and its allies in Congress have also struggled to prevent the opposition from passing legislation and overturning a series of presidential vetoes in recent months that restricted funds for provinces, education, healthcare and disaster relief. The pushback
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Argentina
Economics
Politics
Situation ReportOct 22, 2025 | 17:04 GMT
Kazakhstan, U.S.: Trump Team's Tungsten Push Invites U.S. Investment, Risks Chinese Ire
The U.S. Trump administration is supporting Cove Kaz Capital Group's bid to develop two of Kazakhstan's largest tungsten deposits, facilitating negotiations with the sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna and exploring financing through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and Export-Import Bank, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 21.
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United States
China
Kazakhstan
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 22, 2025 | 17:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies
Ongoing revisions to the European Union's supply-chain due diligence framework reflect a softening of ambitious sustainability goals as competitiveness, economic security and trade diversification take precedence, easing near-term compliance burdens for businesses but maintaining binding ESG obligations, regulatory fragmentation and long-term uncertainty for large companies and high-impact sectors such as energy, agriculture and manufacturing. The European Union is weakening its most ambitious supply-chain sustainability rules -- the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) -- by delaying implementation, easing compliance and narrowing obligations. As part of the ''Omnibus'' simplification package presented in February, Brussels proposed giving companies more time and flexibility and softening due diligence, disclosure and liability requirements for all three initiatives. In April, the European Union also adopted the ''Stop-the-Clock'' Directive, pausing transposition and first-phase application of both CSDDD and CSRD to prevent immediate compliance deadlines from
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Europe
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
Situation ReportOct 22, 2025 | 16:39 GMT
EU: U.S. and Qatar Urge Brussels To Amend or Scrap CSDDD, Warning of Risks to LNG Imports
The United States and Qatar urged the European Union to withdraw or substantially amend its planned Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), arguing it would otherwise complicate liquefied natural gas exports from both countries to the bloc, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 22, citing a joint letter.
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United States
Qatar
Europe
Economics
Energy
Politics
AssessmentsOct 21, 2025 | 21:43 GMT
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump speak to reporters during a bilateral meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on Oct. 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
U.S.-Australia Leadership Summit Yields Critical Minerals Pact, AUKUS Reaffirmation
The United States and Australia's new critical minerals pact and Trump's endorsement of AUKUS reflect a mutual desire to tighten defense and supply chain integration as a way to reduce strategic reliance on China, though these political commitments are unlikely to yield tangible results before the end of the decade due to industrial bottlenecks. On Oct. 20, U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met at the White House for a bilateral summit that delivered two principal outcomes: a critical minerals deal (dubbed the U.S.-Australia Framework for Securing Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths) and a public reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to the AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership. The critical minerals framework commits both governments to jointly mobilize financing through their respective export-credit and development agencies to support priority mining, refining and processing projects. The U.S. Export-Import Bank, the U.S. International Development
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United States
Australia
China
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 21, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election.
Previewing Tanzania's General Elections
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in Tanzania's Oct. 29 general elections, and while her sidelining of opposition forces threatens to trigger potentially violent demonstrations, these are unlikely to pose a threat to her second term, set to focus on advancing constitutional reforms and infrastructure projects. On Oct. 10, Hassan stated at a campaign rally for her Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, or CCM, in the northern Mara region that she would press ahead with constitutional amendments should she be elected for a second term. Hassan's comments built on previous pledges made since taking office in 2021, when she accepted opposition demands for a constitutional review, though precise details have yet to be laid out. But while Hassan's recent comments were likely aimed at shoring up her reformist credentials, authorities have barred the country's two largest opposition parties -- Chadema and the ACT-Wazalendo -- from challenging
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Tanzania
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 20, 2025 | 21:56 GMT
A poster displaying a photo of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen as members of the Bolivarian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise in Caracas on Sept. 20, 2025.
U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela: Potential Scenarios
To weaken the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the United States will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months, while a scenario where Washington only sustains its current strikes on drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean Sea is less likely. Other scenarios -- including de-escalation, a U.S. operation targeting Maduro, a negotiated solution or a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela -- are highly unlikely to occur. On Oct. 15, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he had authorized the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela. He also said he was considering anti-drug trafficking operations on land, in addition to the ongoing U.S. strikes in the southern Caribbean Sea that have targeted at least five boats since early September. The statements, military attacks and drills near Venezuela come after the United States deployed eight warships and 4,500 sailors and marines
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United States
Venezuela
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 20, 2025 | 20:57 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, hold a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Oct.15, 2025.
Syria-Russia Reapproachment Reinforces Damascus's Non-Confrontationalism
Syria will adopt a pragmatic approach to its relations with Russia that will leave the door open for diversified economic and security ties, help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, and could eventually facilitate small steps toward Syria's rapprochement with Iran. On Oct. 15, Syria's provisional president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. This was al-Sharaa's first state visit to Russia since taking control of Syria in December 2024, following the ouster of Russia's ally, former leader Bashar al Assad, in December 2024. During the meeting, Putin and al-Sharaa addressed several key issues. They discussed the status of Russia's remaining military bases in Syria, which Moscow previously used to fight against rebels challenging the al Assad regime, including al-Sharaa's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Other topics included humanitarian aid, economic ties and the future status of al Assad himself, who remains in exile in Russia and whom Syria
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Iran
Syria
Turkey
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
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