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AssessmentsNov 6, 2025 | 19:38 GMT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addresses the Senate in Rome on Oct. 22, 2025.
Italy Struggles To Translate Political Stability Into Economic Growth
Italy's political and fiscal stability has markedly improved under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and while upcoming institutional reforms could help her further consolidate power ahead of the 2027 elections, weak growth and the expiry of EU recovery funds may compel her to abandon recent fiscal prudence, potentially once again testing investor confidence in the country's fiscal trajectory. On Oct. 30, Italy's Senate gave final approval to Meloni's flagship justice reform, which establishes separate career paths for judges and prosecutors and bans magistrates from switching between these roles. The proposed constitutional amendment also restructures the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM) -- the top self-governing body of the Italian judiciary -- into two distinct branches and expands the President of the Republic's authority over appointments, promotions and disciplinary action. The reform will now proceed to a confirmatory referendum, expected in March or April, where Italian voters will decide whether the constitutional
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Italy
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 22:41 GMT
Entrance signage is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on July 23, 2024.
Why Saudi Arabia Won't Backfill Russia's Sanctioned Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will likely prioritize cooperation with Russia on oil production policy amid U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and pressure on Riyadh to compensate for lost supply, even if it risks angering the United States. Eight OPEC+ members, which have been voluntarily cutting oil production, agreed at their Nov. 2 virtual meeting to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, but to pause production increases for the first three months of 2026. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was reportedly the main proponent of the three-month pause in production hikes, as the meeting came less than two weeks after the United States sanctioned Russia's two largest oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Oct. 22. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, reportedly agreed to the pause because oil demand typically slows in the first quarter of the year. The pause also gives Saudi Arabia and its
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Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Russia
Energy
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 22:48 GMT
A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025.
Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?
The United States is pressuring Nigeria to take visible action against armed groups targeting Christian communities, but Abuja faces multiple constraints to curb the violence, and fresh instances of high-profile intercommunal attacks would increase the likelihood of U.S. airstrikes in Nigeria. On Oct. 31, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he was designating Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern due to the killing of Christians in the country. The following day, Trump warned that his administration would ''immediately stop all aid and assistance'' to Nigeria if its government ''continue[d] to allow the killing of Christians,'' and said he had instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to prepare for ''possible action'' in the country. Trump later told reporters on board Air Force One that this could involve launching air strikes or deploying ground troops. In response to Trump's comments, a spokesperson for Nigerian President
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Nigeria
United States
Military & Security
AssessmentsOct 31, 2025 | 18:50 GMT
A girl walks past posters and banners depicting political candidates from rival blocs competing for a seat in the Iraqi Council of Representatives in old Mosul, northern Iraq, on Oct. 28, 2025, days before the Nov. 11, 2025, parliamentary elections.
Assessing Iraq's Political Landscape Ahead of Legislative Elections
Iraq's Nov. 11 parliamentary elections will likely yield a broad governing coalition helmed by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani that balances bilateral relations with the United States and Iran, but still faces public service provision challenges. On Nov. 11, Iraq will hold parliamentary elections for all 329 seats in its unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives. The lead-up to the elections has been marred by controversy and some violence. For instance, influential Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called for a boycott of the elections, citing corruption, after negotiations with the government to extend the candidate registration deadline failed. There have also been attacks against minority candidates, including a bombing that killed a Sunni candidate in northern Iraq in early October and an attack on the office of a Sunni candidate near Baghdad several days later.
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Politics
Situation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 18:37 GMT
Tanzania: Military Warns Against Further Unrest as Preliminary Results Portend Landslide Victory for Hassan
Chief of the Tanzania People's Defence Force Gen. Jacob John Mkunda warned that Tanzanian security forces "can't allow" violent unrest to persist in the aftermath of the country's Oct. 29 general election, which preliminary results show President Samia Suluhu Hassan winning with 95% of vote, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 31.
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Tanzania
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
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United States
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 19:54 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025.
The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders' summit underscored the bloc's efforts to improve cohesion amid U.S.-China competition, from which it is set to benefit economically. But over time, competing trade pressures and internal divergences will test this cohesiveness, with fractures exposing individual members to external and, at times, coercive influence. On Oct. 26-28, the leaders of Southeast Asian countries gathered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the 47th ASEAN Leaders' Summit, joined by high-level representatives from partner countries, including the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump attended the opening day, where he oversaw Thailand and Cambodia signing an expanded ceasefire and joint declaration that formalized and broadened their July truce after deadly border clashes. On the economic track, Washington reached bilateral agreements with four ASEAN members, including a reciprocal trade agreement with Malaysia, a full trade accord with Cambodia, a framework trade deal with Thailand, and a provisional
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United States
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
On SecurityOct 29, 2025 | 15:39 GMT
Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building.
Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success
In recent weeks, a flurry of youth-led mass protests, often given the moniker ''Gen Z,'' has swept across countries in Africa and Asia. Despite each protest movement having its own unique features, there are signs that they have been inspiring, if not significantly coordinating with each other. They share a common frustration with the ruling elite and a belief that poor governance -- due to the rising cost of living, high-level corruption, social injustice, worsening authoritarianism or otherwise -- is mortgaging their futures. These movements not only have generated empathy from outsiders but also resulted in changes, from regime change or changes to unpopular legislation, that open the door to reforms to countries' political structures, economic systems and security apparatuses. But these uprisings also entail numerous risks beyond the obvious potential for near-term violence. These dangers are often overlooked, yet Gen Z protesters will have to confront the same fundamental
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Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
South Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Serbia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 15:05 GMT
Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.
Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain
After years of stagnation, the German economy will receive a boost from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure, but a failure to implement flanking structural reform will mean that the boost to medium-term economic growth will be limited. In recent weeks, numerous media reports have cast doubt on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ambitious plans to reform the economy. Since taking office in May after forming a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority between his center-right Christian Democratic Union or CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party or SPD, Merz's government has reformed the constitutionally mandated limits on government deficits and has committed to significant increases in defense expenditure and infrastructure, especially of transport. The new government has also agreed to implement reforms aimed at reducing growth-impeding bureaucratic rules governing product markets and infrastructure investment. However, despite these goals, thus far intra-coalition disagreements have translated into more limited practical results
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Germany
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 28, 2025 | 21:01 GMT
The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo.
Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance
Upcoming elections for Egypt's House of Representatives will almost certainly yield another lower legislative chamber that strongly supports President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's priorities, including fiscal consolidation and potential efforts to extend his term. Next month, Egyptians will start casting ballots for all 568 elected seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the country's parliament. The first round will be held Nov. 10-11, followed by the second round on Dec. 3-4. Per Egypt's constitution, the House of Representatives has the authority to draft laws, approve the annual budget and oversee the executive branch. In practice, however, it has provided almost no checks and balances to the executive due to the overwhelming dominance of parties aligned with President al-Sisi; of the body's 596 elected seats, 448 are currently held by pro-government lawmakers, while independents hold 124 seats and opposition parties hold only 24. The upcoming elections are unlikely to
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Egypt
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 27, 2025 | 15:07 GMT
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.
Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in Gaza in an effort to reduce the likelihood of being unseated by a right-wing anti-Netanyahu coalition led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party has seen an uptick in support following the Oct. 8 announcement of the first phase of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire and the Oct. 13 release of all 20 remaining living hostages. Prior to the ceasefire agreement, most polls conducted in the second half of September showed Likud winning around 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset if parliamentary elections due by October 2026 were conducted now. More recently, according to a poll published on Oct. 16 by Zman Yisrael, Likud would win 34 seats and its likely coalition partners a further 25, bringing the total to 59 -- just short of the 61 needed to
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 24, 2025 | 15:31 GMT
Kenyan forces stand next to the coffin of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during a funeral mass at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on October 19, 2025 in Bondo, Kenya.
What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics
The death of former Kenyan Prime Minister and opposition leader Raila Odinga risks fragmenting his political party, creating space for other opposition figures to challenge the incumbent president. Odinga, widely known as the "people's president" despite never serving in the role, died on Oct. 15 after reportedly suffering a stroke while receiving medical treatment in India. The 80-year-old, a central figure in Kenyan politics for decades, was granted a state funeral and seven days of national mourning. However, his death quickly sparked unrest across the country from the capital, Nairobi to his home region of Western Kenya. In the intervening days four people were killed when security forces used live fire to disperse crowds at the Kasarani stadium where Odinga's body was to be publicly viewed. On Oct. 16, Odinga's supporters also stormed airport grounds, breaching security and forcing authorities to temporarily halt operations. Some mourners denounced President William Ruto,
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Kenya
Economics
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 15:45 GMT
Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.
The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections
Argentina's Oct. 26 midterms will determine whether the government can advance its pro-market reforms or face a sharp decline in governability and investor confidence. A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant devaluation of the peso, renewed capital controls and heightened political instability. Argentina will hold legislative elections on Oct. 26 to pick 127 out of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate. The vote comes two years after libertarian President Javier Milei was elected and at a time when his administration faces significant challenges to pass legislation because of its minority position in the Argentine Congress. The government and its allies in Congress have also struggled to prevent the opposition from passing legislation and overturning a series of presidential vetoes in recent months that restricted funds for provinces, education, healthcare and disaster relief. The pushback
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Argentina
Economics
Politics
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