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On SecurityJan 8, 2026 | 23:08 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.
Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office
In the first year of his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump vastly expanded the use of U.S. military force abroad, culminating in the successful Jan. 3 operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, the Trump administration oversaw at least 626 airstrikes through the end of 2025 (a figure that does not include the Venezuela strikes), compared to the 555 strikes conducted during former President Joe Biden’s entire four-year term. This uptick in U.S. strikes around the world fits into Trump’s self-described “peace through strength” strategy, which frames aggressive actions abroad as crucial to supporting U.S. national security and political objectives. Although Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable -- which he considers an asset in foreign policy -- his use of force since returning to the White House reveals 10 overarching patterns.
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United States
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJan 8, 2026 | 20:10 GMT
Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025.
Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain
Syria and Israel's new intel-sharing agreement will likely reduce cross-border tensions in the coming months, but structural constraints and unresolved security dynamics mean the arrangement will remain fragile and prone to renewed escalation, limiting prospects for a sustainable, broader security pact. On Jan. 6, Syria and Israel announced that they had agreed to establish a joint mechanism aimed at sharing intelligence and coordinating military de-escalation under the supervision of the United States. The mechanism will also facilitate engagement and commercial opportunities between the two neighboring countries. Additionally, the new framework envisions the creation of a southern economic zone in Syria designed to incentivize stability through investment, reconstruction and cross-border economic activity -- mirroring projects promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump for Gaza and southern Lebanon, where economic incentives are intended to complement security arrangements and reduce incentives for renewed violence. Syria and Israel have been engaged in intermittent talks over
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United States
Israel
Syria
Military & Security
AssessmentsJan 7, 2026 | 22:49 GMT
Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.
Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention
The latest round of mass protests in Iran could endure for several more weeks or months before they are likely suppressed by crackdowns, creating a window of opportunity for risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership. Iran's most serious protests in at least two years entered their eleventh day on Jan. 7, with no clear end in sight. The U.S.-based NGO Human Rights Activists in Iran reported on Jan. 6 that protests over the country's deteriorating economic situation have occurred in at least 285 locations across 27 provinces, and that 34 protesters have been killed and more than 2,000 arrested in the resulting security crackdown. On Jan. 7, Vice President Mohammed Jafar Ghaempanah claimed that President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered security forces to avoid violence unless national security is compromised. However, Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said the same day that there would be "no leniency"
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United States
Iran
Israel
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportJan 7, 2026 | 17:11 GMT
Myanmar: Splinter Group Declares Independence Amid Election Violence
The Kawthoolei Army, a splinter group of the Karen ethnic community that has broken away from the larger Karen National Union, or KNU, proclaimed the independence of the Republic of Kawthoolei and announced a provisional government during a ceremony near the Thailand-Myanmar border, though the KNU quickly rejected the declaration, The Nation Thailand reported on Jan. 7.
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Myanmar
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 6, 2026 | 20:41 GMT
Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World
The growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will likely increasingly strain bilateral relations, raising the risk of escalations and conflicts -- both directly and through their proxies -- in places like Yemen, Sudan and Syria, as well as disruptions within the Gulf Cooperation Council. Geopolitical competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has increased in recent weeks, evident in their diverging strategies across several regional flashpoints and their direct economic rivalry. In Yemen, tensions have sharply escalated after Saudi-backed government troops on Jan. 2 launched an offensive in Hadramaut province to recapture territory from the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), highlighting the continued divergence of Saudi and Emirati strategic imperatives in the country. Similarly, in Sudan, the two Gulf states are backing rival factions in that country's ongoing civil war. And in Syria, while both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi support the new provisional
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Sudan
Saudi Arabia
Syria
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsJan 6, 2026 | 15:46 GMT
The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.
How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?
In 2026, U.S. pressure on Greenland could range from expanded military deployments and economic and political coercion to unilateral intervention, which would aim to strengthen Washington's Arctic presence while eroding Danish authority and would prompt calibrated Russian, Chinese and European responses. During the 2024 presidential campaign and since his return to the White House in January 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in Greenland, often describing the territory as key for American national security. Throughout 2025, Trump repeatedly asserted that "ownership" and "control" of the island were an absolute necessity to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic, even refusing to rule out the use of military or economic coercion to achieve this goal. This stance has triggered significant tensions with Denmark and Greenland, with both governments repeatedly saying that the territory is not for sale. U.S. pressure peaked in late December 2025 with the appointment
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United States
Greenland
China
Europe
Denmark
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 18:00 GMT
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Cyber
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Social Issues
Annual ForecastsJan 5, 2026 | 00:00 GMT
2026 Annual Forecast
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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SnapshotsJan 3, 2026 | 13:44 GMT
Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.
U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region
The United States' claimed capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro creates a leadership vacuum that risks leading to potentially violent instability and unrest in the coming weeks, while also keeping future U.S. strikes on Venezuela and other countries in the region on the table. On Jan. 3, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in an early morning social media post that the United States had captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flown them out of the country. Trump said the operation occurred with U.S. law enforcement and took place alongside U.S. military operations against Venezuela. The Venezuelan government said attacks had occurred in the capital, Caracas, as well as the surrounding states of Aragua, Miranda and La Guaira. The Venezuelan government also declared a state of emergency and called for popular armed mobilization to resist U.S. forces. President Trump announced a press conference at 11:00 a.m. EST to discuss
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026 | 20:15 GMT
A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe.
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast
At a time when forecasts are plentiful and certainty is often overstated, we strongly believe that publishing a transparent record of our accuracy is essential. This annual scorecard is a candid internal assessment of what we forecast accurately, where we missed the mark and where events unfolded in ways that challenged our underlying assumptions. This exercise is not performative. While we will celebrate our successes and further critique our missteps, the goal of this assessment is to sharpen our analytic discipline and inform the forecast for the year ahead.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Global Trade
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsDec 31, 2025 | 15:06 GMT
Flight routes.
2025: A Geopolitical Review
It is tradition to look back on the year at the end of December, to take stock of where we were, and where we are now. In part, this is an attempt to put what seems like a volatile and ever-changing world into some sort of order, to search for patterns, to make sense of the past. But the main reason isn't to indulge in backcasting -- it is to look into the future, to see how the trends and events of the past 12 months fit into broader temporal patterns, and how these may give us insight into the flow of future history.
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Benin
Burkina Faso
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Madagascar
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Canada
Paraguay
United States
Venezuela
Egypt
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Morocco
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Syria
Turkey
Yemen
Australia
Cambodia
China
Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Japan
Mongolia
Myanmar
Philippines
South Korea
Thailand
Vietnam
Europe
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Russia
Afghanistan
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 29, 2025 | 15:57 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.
Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks
Despite the recent progress toward a U.S.-backed peace plan for Ukraine, the negotiations will risk stalling or collapsing as Russia's unchanged maximalist demands and unresolved disputes over security guarantees and territorial concessions continue to block a durable settlement. On Dec. 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida to advance negotiations on a peace plan aimed at ending the war with Russia. Both leaders held a joint press conference and reported substantial progress, with Zelensky stating the plan was "90% agreed" and U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine "100% agreed." Trump said the parties were "very close" to a peace deal, though "thorny" issues remained, particularly over territorial questions such as the Donbas, the region of eastern Ukraine comprising Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. On Dec. 29, Zelensky added that the United States was currently offering security guarantees to Ukraine for 15 years, but Kyiv wants
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United States
Europe
Eurasia
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 14:30 GMT
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.
Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships
India's recent deals with New Zealand and Oman signal modest efforts to expand trade, investment and labor mobility, but various constraints will limit their impact as India struggles to reach larger agreements with partners like the United States, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council. On Dec. 22, India and New Zealand announced that, after nine months of negotiations, they had reached a free trade agreement (FTA) to reduce tariffs, improve labor mobility and expand trade of goods and services and investment. Signing is expected in the first half of 2026. The announcement of the FTA came days after India and Oman on Dec. 18 signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA). 
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Oman
New Zealand
India
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
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