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AssessmentsJan 7, 2026 | 22:49 GMT
Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.
Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention
The latest round of mass protests in Iran could endure for several more weeks or months before they are likely suppressed by crackdowns, creating a window of opportunity for risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership. Iran's most serious protests in at least two years entered their eleventh day on Jan. 7, with no clear end in sight. The U.S.-based NGO Human Rights Activists in Iran reported on Jan. 6 that protests over the country's deteriorating economic situation have occurred in at least 285 locations across 27 provinces, and that 34 protesters have been killed and more than 2,000 arrested in the resulting security crackdown. On Jan. 7, Vice President Mohammed Jafar Ghaempanah claimed that President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered security forces to avoid violence unless national security is compromised. However, Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said the same day that there would be "no leniency"
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United States
Iran
Israel
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 19:56 GMT
U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure
U.S. government officials have outlined to Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez that Washington's main priorities for Caracas are fighting drug trafficking, removing from the country operatives from Iran, Cuba and other nations hostile to the United States, and halting the shipment of oil to U.S. adversaries, Politico reported on Jan. 5.
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 22:09 GMT
Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.
Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios
Following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela will remain highly volatile and exposed to internal violence and further U.S. attacks. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez will most likely adopt a pragmatic, cooperative stance toward Washington to ensure regime survival, but alternative scenarios include her opting for a defiant stance vis-a-vis Washington, a hard-line coup, an internal civil conflict and a highly unlikely transition to democracy.
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Brazil
Colombia
Guyana
United States
Venezuela
Economics
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Politics
Situation ReportJan 5, 2026 | 19:21 GMT
South Korea, China: Lee-Xi Chat Rosey on Economic Ties, Mixed on North Korea
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, where the two sides signed 15 memorandums of understanding, including on establishing a ministerial-level commercial dialogue and deepening cooperation on artificial intelligence and cultural product exchanges, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5.
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United States
China
Japan
North Korea
South Korea
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 18:00 GMT
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
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Annual ForecastsJan 5, 2026 | 00:00 GMT
2026 Annual Forecast
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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SnapshotsJan 3, 2026 | 13:44 GMT
Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.
U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region
The United States' claimed capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro creates a leadership vacuum that risks leading to potentially violent instability and unrest in the coming weeks, while also keeping future U.S. strikes on Venezuela and other countries in the region on the table. On Jan. 3, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in an early morning social media post that the United States had captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flown them out of the country. Trump said the operation occurred with U.S. law enforcement and took place alongside U.S. military operations against Venezuela. The Venezuelan government said attacks had occurred in the capital, Caracas, as well as the surrounding states of Aragua, Miranda and La Guaira. The Venezuelan government also declared a state of emergency and called for popular armed mobilization to resist U.S. forces. President Trump announced a press conference at 11:00 a.m. EST to discuss
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 29, 2025 | 22:12 GMT
A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.
Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now
The latest Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire arrests a rapidly escalating border conflict driven by failed earlier truces, but its durability remains uncertain as early allegations of violations and unresolved boundary disputes leave the door open for another truce breakdown and return to larger fighting in the coming years. On Dec. 29, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted the Cambodian and Thai foreign ministers in Yuxi city in China’s Yunnan province, where Wang framed China as a friend to both countries that is intent on preventing a relapse into conflict. The summit occurred two days after Thailand and Cambodia signed a renewed ceasefire effective noon local time on Dec. 27, halting a roughly three-week conflict that featured artillery exchanges and Thai airstrikes, and that left more than 100 dead and more than half a million civilians displaced across both sides of the border. The ceasefire commits both sides to an immediate halt in
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Cambodia
China
Thailand
Military & Security
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