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AssessmentsDec 18, 2025 | 19:33 GMT
A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.
The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West
A spate of recent Islamic State-linked terror incidents illustrates the group's resilience and continuing ability to inspire supporters across the globe, as growing branches in certain countries may develop both a greater intent and capability to direct mass casualty attacks in the West in the coming years. Over the past week, authorities worldwide have linked a series of successful attacks and thwarted plots to the Islamic State. On Dec. 14, a father and son pair inspired by the group killed 15 people and injured dozens more at a Hanukkah celebration in Sydney, Australia, the deadliest terror incident in the country's history. The day before, an Islamic State-affiliated gunman killed two U.S. servicemembers and a civilian interpreter in an ambush in Palmyra, Syria. Meanwhile, on Dec. 16, Polish police said they had arrested an individual suspected of planning an Islamic State-inspired attack on a Christmas market, days after German police said
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Mozambique
Republic of the Congo
Somalia
Syria
Afghanistan
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 12, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024.
Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union
The Tunisian government's likely passage of a contentious finance bill will elevate tensions with the country's largest labor union, opening the door to a potential expansion of strike and protest activity, but reforms to increase production will likely improve the manufacturing and agricultural export sectors. On Dec. 10, Tunisia's 2026 Finance Bill advanced from the National Assembly to President Kais Saied, who is expected to approve it; upon approval, the measure will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The bill combines the annual budget with other financial measures, including wage and pension increases, provisions to improve fiscal consolidation (including a wealth tax to expand Tunisia's tax base), value-added tax reductions on manufacturing and some agricultural production inputs, and reforms to drone laws to boost agricultural profitability. One particularly contentious provision is Article 15, which approves wage increases for public and private sector workers at a reported average annual rate of
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Tunisia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportDec 8, 2025 | 20:11 GMT
Australia, Afghanistan: Australia Sanctions Afghan Taliban Officials Over Alleged Human Rights Concerns
Australia imposed financial sanctions and a travel ban on Afghanistan's minister of virtue and vice, minister of higher education, minister of justice and chief justice for alleged complicity in oppressing women and girls as well as minority groups in Afghanistan, among other offenses, according to a statement Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade released on Dec. 6.
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Australia
Afghanistan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 8, 2025 | 19:14 GMT
Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.
Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza
Early reconstruction efforts in the Israeli-controlled portion of the Gaza Strip will further advance a de facto partitioning of Gaza, enabling Israel to apply military pressure on Hamas to disarm without returning to full-scale war, preventing significant domestic or international backlash while forestalling a resumption of Houthi attacks. As the Israeli military implements a plan to divide the Gaza Strip, private contractors have begun the construction of the first U.S.-backed semipermanent compound to house Palestinians in Rafah, in the Israeli-controlled portion of the territory. Each so-called "Alternative Safe Community" is projected to be able to eventually house 20,000-25,000 Palestinians and to have schools and medical facilities, but will likely take several months to construct and cost tens of millions of dollars. The U.S.-backed plan proposed the construction of at least six of these compounds. However, even as construction on the first of these compounds begins, several unresolved questions regarding the
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 5, 2025 | 18:12 GMT
Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen.
The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab
Cooperation between Yemen's Houthi rebels and Somalia's al Shabaab in weapons transfers, training and logistics will likely continue in the coming years and though the extent of further cooperation will remain constrained by the Houthis' need to prioritize their own military imperatives, this will not fundamentally hamper al Shabaab's capabilities. An October 2025 U.N. report confirmed that Somali security services had intercepted multiple arms shipments, including explosives and drones, en route from Yemen and arrested individuals tied to a trafficking network connecting al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab in Somalia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Investigators also documented the growing use of Somali piracy networks to facilitate Houthi maritime disruptions in the Gulf of Aden, including attacks on commercial ships and collecting ransoms from captured crew and vessels. A Somali national affiliated with al Shabaab who acted as a liaison was also identified, admitting to coordinating the travel of approximately
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Somalia
Yemen
Military & Security
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025 | 18:18 GMT
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
In October, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense published its biennial National Defense Report (NDR), which describes the state of Taiwan's security environment, as well as the goals for and challenges to developing the island nation's military. The report suggests the Taiwan military's arms procurement and recruitment capabilities are growing to help it deter and defend against a Chinese invasion. But it is still unclear how well Taiwan could coordinate a whole-of-society defense effort, necessitating deeper informal ties with the West and the broadcasting of China's aggressive gray-zone activities to gain Western support. Likewise, Taiwan's ability to deter Chinese aggression shy of an invasion (e.g., a blockade) depends as much on political signals and Lai's willingness to escalate as it does on Taiwan's military capabilities. The upshot is that Taipei is demonstrating growing intent and tactical capabilities but not yet the administrative capacity to carry out a sustained defense. Moreover, perhaps
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China
Taiwan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 20, 2025 | 16:08 GMT
The Pentagon viewed from above.
New U.S. Defense Acquisition Reforms Offer Opportunities for Improvements, but Longstanding Constraints Remain
Reforms to how the United States acquires weapons pledged by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration offer new ways to simplify and accelerate the process, but persistent constraints will likely limit transformation, hampering U.S. preparations for future conflicts and risking the quality of new capabilities. On Nov. 10, the U.S. Department of Defense released the texts of memorandums U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth referenced in a highly anticipated Nov. 7 address in which he outlined a strategy to streamline the Pentagon's procurement process, revive the country's defense industrial base and accelerate the delivery of capabilities to U.S. military personnel. According to Hegseth, "The defense acquisition system as you know it is dead." The planned updates include simplifying the chain of command to acquire new capabilities, giving more freedom to acquisition officials to shift funds and make decisions more quickly, favoring commercially available solutions over bespoke ones, changing contract terms to
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United States
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 12, 2025 | 20:03 GMT
Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen.
What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security
Israel is highly likely to launch another military offensive against the Houthis in the coming months, which will prompt the group to resume attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, and could also reignite Yemen's civil war and subsequent Houthi attacks on the Gulf, while creating security vacuums for al Qaeda to exploit. In a recent letter to the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Houthi military chief Maj. Gen. Yusuf Hassan al-Madani signalled that the group had paused its attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea, but threatened to resume operations if Israel renewed its Gaza offensive. This comes as Israel and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement have exchanged a series of tit-for-tat threats of military confrontation in recent weeks, hinting at the potential for renewed confrontation. Most notably, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Nov. 2 that his country was preparing to take further military action against the
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Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 21:38 GMT
Malian trucks carrying fuel are seen waiting to cross the border between Cote d'Ivoire and Mali on Oct. 31, 2025.
Mali's Junta Fights for Its Life as Jihadists Tighten Their Noose on Bamako
Jihadists' fuel blockade on Mali's capital is set to increase popular and elite pressure on the ruling junta, whose likely inability to use force to fully lift the blockade portends rising intra-junta tensions that risk fragmenting the country's security forces, a development that jihadists would likely exploit to advance toward the capital. On Oct. 28, the U.S. Embassy in Mali issued a security alert calling on all U.S. nationals to immediately leave the country amid a worsening fuel blockade by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the capital Bamako and other major cities. The fuel blockade, which began in early September, has led to severe shortages of diesel and gasoline, bringing the economy to a standstill and causing fuel prices to increase by up to 500%. While Mali's junta has deployed security forces to escort fuel truck convoys importing petroleum products from neighboring countries, this has not
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Mali
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 3, 2025 | 22:37 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.
President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years
China's policy plan for 2026-2030 lays out continuity in economic policy but also highlights an intent to pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, launch internal anti-corruption probes to enforce President Xi Jinping's policy vision, and use lawfare amid foreign disputes. On Oct. 28, China's State Council published the details of the Chinese Communist Party's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) for National Economic and Social Development, which was passed at the CCP's recent Fourth Plenum in Beijing from Oct. 20-23. The document charts China's policy trajectory from 2026-2030, but it is mainly thematic and qualitative in nature, lacking many of the quantitative targets that China's rubber-stamp legislature will unveil at its annual meeting in March 2026. Still, the document reflects the policy priorities of the CCP and, thus, those of China's central government. It also offers a rare glimpse into the worldview of China's leadership, particularly
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China
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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