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Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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AssessmentsJun 11, 2025 | 19:50 GMT
(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China.
Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited
In the coming years, China will diversify and expand trade and investment in Latin America and the Caribbean amid U.S. protectionism, but Beijing's influence will likely remain limited due to its declining financial capacity and the region's enduring ties with the West. On May 13, China hosted its fourth ministerial meeting with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, or CELAC. Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to provide the region with a new 66 billion yuan ($9.18 billion) credit line to support development, in addition to new infrastructure investments and cooperation on artificial intelligence, clean energy and the digital economy. Delegates from around 30 countries attended the event, including Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Chilean President Gabriel Boric, all of whom are leftist leaders. On the same trip, Petro and Xi signed an agreement for Colombia to join China's Belt and Road
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Argentina
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
United States
Uruguay
Venezuela
China
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
SnapshotsMay 12, 2025 | 21:55 GMT
Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025.
Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive
The U.S.-China tariff reductions will provide near-term economic relief for both countries, even as significant long-term decoupling remains likely, and they will embolden China to retaliate strongly in future spats and to withhold major consumer stimulus at home. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on May 12 that they had reached a deal with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng during May 10-11 meetings in Geneva, Switzerland, to temporarily cut tariffs for 90 days during further negotiations. These cuts, effective May 14, will reduce U.S. tariffs introduced in April on Chinese imports from 125% to 10%. However, the 20% U.S. tariffs on China ostensibly over its role in the fentanyl trade, various U.S. sectoral tariffs (e.g., on automobiles, steel and aluminum), and the roughly 25% U.S. tariffs on China imposed before U.S. President Donald Trump took office will remain in place. The May 12 deal
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United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
SnapshotsApr 29, 2025 | 15:33 GMT
Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections.
Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation
In Canada, the new Liberal government will likely push to lower tax burdens, shelter key domestic industries, increase spending as it grapples with an economic slowdown, and draw closer to Europe as Ottawa seeks to diversify its trade and security relationships away from the United States. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's center-left Liberal Party won the country's early general elections on April 28, but appears to have narrowly missed capturing a majority in the House of Commons. As of midday on April 29, the Liberals had won or were leading in 168 ridings, just shy of the 172 needed to form a majority in the 343-seat chamber. The opposition center-right Conservative Party was projected to win 144 ridings, while the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) was projected to secure 23; the New Democratic Party and Green Party were projected to take seven and one, respectively. Despite seemingly falling just short of a
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Canada
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 22, 2025 | 20:44 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on South Korea and Japan
U.S. tariffs on South Korea and Japan could sway upcoming leadership contests in both countries, modestly increase their trade with China and erode U.S.-South Korea defense cooperation, but they are unlikely to undermine U.S.-Japan security ties. From April 16-18, Japanese and U.S. officials held trade negotiations in Washington, and South Korean representatives are expected to travel to the United States in the coming days to begin their own talks. These moves come after U.S. President Donald Trump on April 9 granted a 90-day pause to "reciprocal" tariffs on most countries -- including tariffs of 24% on Japan and 26% on South Korea -- bringing the reciprocal tariff down to 10% for all countries except China. This reprieve did not, however, apply to imported vehicles or auto parts, key export industries in both South Korea and Japan that rely heavily on exports to the U.S. market. Those goods were subjected to
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United States
China
Japan
South Korea
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 17, 2025 | 19:11 GMT
A protest on Jan. 8 in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka.
How Bangladeshi Stability Depends Upon a Prompt Election
Bangladesh's interim government will likely schedule a general election between December 2025 and June 2026, but if it does not due to the lack of progress on electoral reforms, it will heighten the risk of instability, economic difficulties and public discontent, potentially leading to military intervention.
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Bangladesh
Politics
AssessmentsApr 10, 2025 | 20:48 GMT
Taiwan's President Lai inspects troops taking part in the Rapid Response Exercise at the Songshan military airbase in Taipei on March 21, 2025.
In Taiwan, President Lai's Actions Toward China Will Speak Louder Than His Words
The Taiwanese president's latest policy efforts to safeguard sovereignty and root out Chinese influence will drive China to rely more on economic and military coercion, but these efforts do not make a Chinese invasion more likely. On April 1 and April 2, China conducted two rounds of military exercises around Taiwan, including live-fire drills 300 kilometers (approximately 185 miles) north of Taiwan and blockade drills around Taiwan's key ports and energy import terminals. A spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) said the drills were in direct response to a press conference on March 13 by Taiwanese President William Lai in which he pledged to protect Taiwan's sovereignty from China by more closely scrutinizing cross-strait ties. Lai also asserted that China's actions against Taiwan qualify it as a "foreign hostile force" as defined in Taiwan's Anti-Infiltration Act, presaging more punitive action. That was the latest policy move taken by Lai's
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China
Taiwan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportApr 8, 2025 | 21:51 GMT
Panama: Audit Findings on CK Hutchison Subsidiary Flag Contract Risks for Chinese Companies
Panamanian Comptroller General Anel Flores said April 7 that Panama Ports, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison, did not receive the necessary approvals to have its Panama Canal concession extended in 2021 while using tax-exempt subcontractors to reduce the amount it pays the local government, Bloomberg reported April 7.
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Panama
United States
China
Economics
AssessmentsApr 8, 2025 | 20:59 GMT
Vietnamese garment workers stitch apparel at a factory in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on April 3, 2025, after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on trading partners.
Trump's Tariffs Pose a Structural Threat to Vietnam's Economy
New U.S. tariffs on Vietnam present a severe threat to the Southeast Asian nation's export-based economy, creating substantial risks that could compel a strategic drift toward China. On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 46% tariff on all U.S. imports from Vietnam, effective April 9, under the White House's new Reciprocal Tariff Program. Vietnam was among the hardest-hit countries in the announcement. The move triggered a rapid, high-level response in Hanoi. On April 4, General Secretary To Lam, the country's de facto top leader, held a direct phone call with Trump during which he offered to eliminate all Vietnamese tariffs on U.S. imports, with Lam urging Trump to adopt a reciprocal approach. Vietnam has also resorted to behind-the-scenes engagement with U.S. stakeholders and key third-party intermediaries, including Japan, South Korea and U.S. industry groups like the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam.
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United States
China
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
SnapshotsMar 25, 2025 | 18:46 GMT
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) walks with New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (R) before their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on March 17, 2025.
India Dusts Off Old FTA Negotiations Ahead of U.S. Tariffs
While India has shown renewed interest in finalizing free trade agreements, or FTAs, particularly in response to U.S. threats of reciprocal tariffs, its protectionist stance and other obstacles will likely delay the completion of deals. On March 16, India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and New Zealand's Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay announced that negotiations for an India-New Zealand FTA will begin in April. This followed the 10th round of India-EU FTA negotiations on March 10-14 and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's visit to India on Feb. 27, which yielded an announcement from von der Leyen that both sides had agreed to finalize an FTA by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, on Feb. 24, India's Goyal and the United Kingdom's Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds announced the resumption of negotiations for a proposed India-U.K. FTA.
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United States
New Zealand
Europe
United Kingdom
India
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsMar 13, 2025 | 21:28 GMT
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025.
In the Philippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections
The high-profile arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around the country's May midterm elections, which will help determine whether the current administration's defense and foreign policy agenda continues or stalls.​ On March 11, Duterte was arrested on an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant accusing him of crimes against humanity related to the deadly anti-drug campaigns he oversaw as mayor of Davao City and later as president of the Philippines. He was apprehended at Manila's Ninoy Aquino International Airport after returning from Hong Kong, and was then extradited to The Hague in the Netherlands, where he is currently detained at the ICC detention center awaiting trial proceedings that could last several years and ultimately result in a prison sentence of up to 30 years. Duterte's anti-drug crackdowns, which began in 2016, officially led to approximately 6,000 fatalities, though some human rights groups
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Philippines
Politics
AssessmentsMar 5, 2025 | 15:21 GMT
The outline of China and its provinces
The Lingering Risk of Protests in China
The risk of significant unrest in China persists following the 2022 White Paper protests driven by continuing poor economic prospects. New protests could drive the government to abandon economic reforms and threaten the president's tenure, exacerbate political centralization of power, or further restrict China's information environment.
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China
Economics
Politics
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