GuidanceAug 8, 2020 | 14:00 GMT
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
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SnapshotsAug 7, 2020 | 20:48 GMT
In the United States' pressure campaign against China, President Donald Trump's threshold for action is decreasing and his tolerance for risk of blowback to U.S. economic interests appears to be rising -- a trend confirmed by the White House's move to both restrict transactions by U.S. entities with China's TikTok and WeChat apps, as well as impose sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials involved in the Hong Kong crisis. Such blowback includes the impact of U.S. restrictions on U.S. businesses in China, as well as the threat of Chinese retaliation. Although both of these moves are part of a long-term bipartisan trend towards greater confrontation with China, U.S. President Donald Trump's electoral challenges will lead to an increasingly volatile dynamic ahead of the November vote, even as he tries to walk the line of preserving, at least in name, the U.S.-China trade deal as a key campaign promise.
READ MOREPodcastsAug 6, 2020 | 11:30 GMT
In this podcast, Emily Donahue speaks to Asia-Pacific Analyst Evan Rees about how delaying Hong Kong's elections to 2021 plays into China's long-term goals for Hong Kong.
READ MORESnapshotsAug 6, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
China's tentative steps to respond to potential U.S. sanctions over Hong Kong will be limited by a largely dollarized system for global payments and clearing settlements. Beijing could, however, adopt disruptive "blocking actions" that force companies to choose between Chinese and U.S. systems.
READ MOREGuidanceAug 1, 2020 | 14:00 GMT
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 31, 2020 | 16:39 GMT
The one-year delay of the Hong Kong election appears to be an attempt to exhaust the opposition pro-democracy camp, though it may instead serve as a rallying point domestically and internationally. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced July 31 that the Legislative Council elections would be delayed by a year, to Sept. 5, 2021, citing the COVID-19 pandemic and her prerogative under the Emergency Regulation Ordinance. The delay, however, was more likely a desperate move by Lam and her pro-Beijing camp, who was facing the real possibility of a much larger win for the pro-democracy camp. As such, the move may embolden the opposition to keep up pressure through international contact and domestic resistance -- whether via organized rallies and protests, or in the Legislative Council before its current term ends Sept. 30.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTJul 30, 2020 | 20:12 GMT
Hong Kong: National Security Law Used to Disqualify Candidates, Make ArrestsHong Kong authorities disqualified 12 opposition candidates from Legislative Council elections scheduled for Sept. 6, four of whom currently hold office, the South China Morning Post reported July 30.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 30, 2020 | 17:16 GMT
The STAR Market, China's equivalent to a tech-focused Nasdaq, is fueling growth in China's tech sector, but Beijing's regulation and fears of both domestic speculation and industry bubbles will constrain the exchange's potential for growth. A recent string of launches is demonstrating the STAR Market's potential power to raise capital and draw investment into the Chinese technology sector. China will likely continue to liberalize the market faster than its other domestic stock markets, as the exchange becomes increasingly central to China's overall technology ambitions amid its tech war with the United States. The success of the STAR Market, however, will depend on the innovativeness and quality of the companies involved in it, as well as the broader constraints to China's tech sector.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 28, 2020 | 19:10 GMT
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s proposed overhaul to Mexico’s pension system will preserve investor confidence by maintaining the country’s current individual account system, while still addressing pressing concerns about the system’s long-term sustainability. On July 22, Lopez Obrador announced his proposed pension reforms, which the Mexican Congress will vote on when it reconvenes in September. The proposed changes to Mexico’s current pension system include doubling employer contributions over an eight-year period; increasing total contributions from 6.5 to 15 percent; limiting the commissions charged by Retirement Funds Administrators (AFOREs); and decreasing the number of years a worker needs to contribute to access a minimum guaranteed pension from 25 to 15 years, while increasing the number of such pensions by about 40 percent.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 28, 2020 | 18:54 GMT
Hong Kong’s September Legislative Council elections may be postponed amid the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, which would help the city’s pro-Beijing ruling party maintain control and would remove a near-term focal point for protests. But a long delay could also reignite the opposition by creating a legislative vacuum and removing a legal way for citizens to express their level of satisfaction with the government.
On July 28, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam met with elements of the Executive Council to discuss a potential delay to the legislative elections, but put off a final decision until after election nominations close at the end of the week. The election could reportedly be delayed anywhere between several months to a full year, with some elements of the ruling camp backing the longer postponement. Pro-democracy politicians have already accused the pro-Beijing camp of using a delay to hold on to power and facilitate a pro-Beijing agenda.
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 22, 2020 | 21:37 GMT
Washington's closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston introduces a new conflict point in U.S.-China relations, but the impact will depend on the narrative and justification for the U.S. decision and whether Beijing retaliates proportionately or further escalates tensions. If it becomes apparent that the United States closed the consulate in response to an immediate security threat, it would indicate a continuation of the administration's more measured approach to Chinese threats in recent months. However, if the move is not linked to particularly egregious activity at the consulate, it may indicate that the White House is adopting a more aggressive posture against Beijing ahead of the November election.
READ MOREPodcastsJul 16, 2020 | 09:00 GMT
In this podcast, Emily Donahue speaks to Michael Monderer about forthcoming U.S. sanctions on China for its new security law in Hong Kong. U.S. sanctions would likely focus on individuals, not against Hong Kong or China in general.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 15, 2020 | 20:33 GMT
Despite growing bipartisan pressure among U.S. legislators to take more aggressive action against China, the White House's latest actions in Hong Kong indicate the administration still seeks to avoid any moves that could substantively damage the city's status as an economic hub or jeopardize the U.S.-China phase one trade deal. On July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the issuing of an executive order invoking the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 to certify the city no longer warrants autonomous treatment under U.S. law, as well as the signing of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act (HKAA) into law. These two actions mark another step in the incremental escalation of U.S. pressure on China over its implementation of a severe new national security law in the city but still fall short of more extreme moves Washington could take, reflecting a still cautious White House strategy.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTJul 14, 2020 | 20:38 GMT
China, U.S.: Beijing Sanctions Lockheed Martin Over Taiwan Arms DealThe Chinese government announced it will impose unspecified sanctions on the American aerospace giant Lockheed Martin for its role as the main contractor in a new $620 million U.S.-Taiwan arms deal aimed at upgrading the island’s Patriot missile systems, the South China Morning Post reported July 14.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 14, 2020 | 16:31 GMT
The United States' partial rejection of China's South China Sea claims will add to mounting tensions between the two countries, but will not alone derail their trade deal or upset the status quo of the contested waterway. This marks a shift from the previous U.S. approach of refraining from an official position on specific Chinese claims in the South China Sea, though Washington is still remaining partly neutral by not explicitly backing the overall maritime claims of countries contesting those of China. The waterway, however, will still be a growing site of U.S.-China competition, worsening the two countries' already fraught relationship troubled by Hong Kong, COVID-19, human rights issues and tech competition.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 13, 2020 | 19:09 GMT
High voter turnout in Hong Kong's opposition primary demonstrates the pro-democracy camp's continued momentum toward a strong showing for the city's September legislative election. Despite fears of low turnout amid the draconian national security law, Hong Kong's July 11-12 unofficial pro-democratic primary attracted 610,000 voters -- 13.8 percent of the city's electorate and in excess of the 170,000-person target. The strong public mandate will help the opposition winnow down the normally massive pool of candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote to the advantage of pro-Beijing opponents. Instead of exerting a chilling effect on politics in the city, it also appears that the new national security law has galvanized the opposition, which bodes well for electoral turnout in September.
READ MOREGuidanceJul 13, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump's expected signature of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act (HKAA) presages a policy challenge for his administration as it seeks to pressure China without further damaging the U.S.-China trade deal. This, combined with the need to avoid creating additional economic uncertainty ahead of the November election, suggests possible new sanctions will not pose an immediate threat to Hong Kong's currency peg to the U.S. dollar.
READ MOREGuidanceJul 11, 2020 | 14:00 GMT
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
The U.S. decision to sanction a Chinese Politburo member will provoke a tit-for-tat response from Beijing, adding to the mounting tensions between the two countries. On July 9, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned one Chinese government agency and four individuals for their role in the ongoing crackdown on ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang. While such sanctions will not alone derail the U.S.-China "phase one" trade deal, they will add to the growing points of tension that, when combined, threaten the agreement. The targeted focus of these sanctions on individuals also suggests a more measured U.S. approach to the Uighur crisis in Xinjiang, similar to Washington's approach in its response to Beijing's encroachment over Hong Kong.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTJul 8, 2020 | 20:34 GMT
Hong Kong, China: Beijing Opens National Security Office Near Victoria ParkThe new Beijing-controlled Office for Safeguarding National Security has officially opened in Hong Kong, the South China Morning Post reported July 8.
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