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AssessmentsDec 16, 2025 | 22:09 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty
Central Asia's strategic location between Russia, China and Europe will enhance its role in evolving Eurasian trade routes, but rival agendas, uneven financing, weak regional coordination, and governance and security risks will limit the region's rise as a true continental hub. Russia's war in Ukraine, persistent shocks to global supply chains and China's recalibrated Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have positioned Central Asia from a peripheral transit zone into a central area of great power competition. The region's five states -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- now sit at the junction of competing east-west and north-south corridors, where the build-out of transport and energy infrastructure creates strategic opportunities but also heightens exposure to geopolitical fragmentation and external pressure. Despite this renewed external attention, Central Asian states' landlocked geography imposes some of the world's highest trade costs, making improved connectivity an economic imperative. Compounding this geographic challenge, long-standing institutional
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China
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 12, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024.
Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union
The Tunisian government's likely passage of a contentious finance bill will elevate tensions with the country's largest labor union, opening the door to a potential expansion of strike and protest activity, but reforms to increase production will likely improve the manufacturing and agricultural export sectors. On Dec. 10, Tunisia's 2026 Finance Bill advanced from the National Assembly to President Kais Saied, who is expected to approve it; upon approval, the measure will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The bill combines the annual budget with other financial measures, including wage and pension increases, provisions to improve fiscal consolidation (including a wealth tax to expand Tunisia's tax base), value-added tax reductions on manufacturing and some agricultural production inputs, and reforms to drone laws to boost agricultural profitability. One particularly contentious provision is Article 15, which approves wage increases for public and private sector workers at a reported average annual rate of
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Tunisia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 15:57 GMT
Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.
The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture
Israel's upcoming deployment of a new laser aerial defense system will reduce threats from short-range rockets and drones while reinforcing a long-term push for defense self-sufficiency and expanding opportunities for international defense production partnerships and exports. Israel is set to deploy the Iron Beam laser defense system by the end of the year, following the completion of operational testing of the system in September. The defense ministry and primary Israeli military contractors Elbit and Rafael have confirmed that the first batteries are scheduled for transfer to the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, on Dec. 30. Initial operational use of the system is expected in 2026. If implemented as scheduled, the deployment will make Israel the first country to field a combat-ready laser air defense system. The defense ministry reported that the 100-kilowatt system successfully intercepted missiles, mortar rounds, UAVs and other aerial threats during weeks of testing, demonstrating the ability
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United States
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Yemen
Economics
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025 | 18:18 GMT
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
In October, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense published its biennial National Defense Report (NDR), which describes the state of Taiwan's security environment, as well as the goals for and challenges to developing the island nation's military. The report suggests the Taiwan military's arms procurement and recruitment capabilities are growing to help it deter and defend against a Chinese invasion. But it is still unclear how well Taiwan could coordinate a whole-of-society defense effort, necessitating deeper informal ties with the West and the broadcasting of China's aggressive gray-zone activities to gain Western support. Likewise, Taiwan's ability to deter Chinese aggression shy of an invasion (e.g., a blockade) depends as much on political signals and Lai's willingness to escalate as it does on Taiwan's military capabilities. The upshot is that Taipei is demonstrating growing intent and tactical capabilities but not yet the administrative capacity to carry out a sustained defense. Moreover, perhaps
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China
Taiwan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 3, 2025 | 16:38 GMT
Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.
Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, core disputes over territory, security guarantees and frozen assets remain unresolved. As a result, negotiations over the coming weeks are likely to continue with limited progress, though other outcomes could range from a fragile revised deal or a tenuous ceasefire to a complete collapse of talks. On Dec. 2, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. While the Kremlin described the meeting as "very useful," the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a peace plan. Following the talks, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the talks had made "some progress, but we're not there yet." The meeting happened after international media leaked a peace plan drafted by U.S. and Russian officials, largely favorable to Moscow, in late November. A few days later, U.S. and Ukrainian delegations worked on
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United States
Europe
Eurasia
Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsDec 2, 2025 | 20:45 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.
What To Expect as Putin Visits India
Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to India will reinforce the symbolic strength of bilateral ties and support incremental cooperation across defense, energy and trade, though India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and sanctions and continues its shift toward defense and technology diversification. Putin will visit India on Dec. 4-5 for the annual India-Russia summit, where he will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Russia and India have held summits each year since 2000, following the signing of the Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership, which created their highest-level institutionalized dialogue. These meetings, typically hosted alternately by each country, aim to deepen the strategic partnership through high-level discussions.
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Russia
India
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
ColumnsNov 28, 2025 | 08:56 GMT
A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.
Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare
The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted how accessible, cost-effective technologies, particularly drones, are reshaping modern warfare. Drones have become central instruments of cost-imposition, allowing Ukraine to inflict disproportionate damage on a materially stronger adversary at a fraction of the cost of traditional weapons systems. Far from the rapid win Russia hoped to impose, Ukraine has demonstrated that smaller states can leverage these technologies to survive, adapt and even impose sustained costs over the long term.
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Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsNov 26, 2025 | 16:08 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade
Faced with the risk of U.S. financial sanctions, China and some other countries have sought to de-dollarize their international trade. While this will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, it will do little to undermine the position of the dollar as the preeminent international trade and finance currency over the next decade.
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United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
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