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AssessmentsApr 10, 2024 | 21:02 GMT
In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy
The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly will further lock in Belarus' integration with Russia and prepare the country for President Alexander Lukashenko's eventual succession process. Belarus' extra-parliamentary body, more commonly referred to as the Belarusian People's Congress (BPC) by the government, will gather April 24-25 and consists of 1,200 members -- primarily officeholders from the legislative and executive branches of power, as well as judiciary members and smaller numbers of delegates from non-government institutions. The convocation will be the newly empowered body's first since it received new powers in a February 2022 constitutional referendum held under neither free nor fair circumstances just three days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. The constitution's amendments give the BPC the power to certify election results, impeach the president, initiate changes to the constitution, and enact a state of emergency or martial law. The BPC's new constitutionally enshrined functions also include appointing judges to
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
READ MOREAnalystFeb 23, 2024 | 19:24 GMT
Joshua Kroeker
Joshua Kroeker is an editor at RANE, using his free time to focus on geopolitical, political and economic issues in the Eurasia and European regions. Joshua holds a bachelor's in history and European studies from the University of British Columbia, a master's degree in Global History from Heidelberg University in Germany and a master's in International Relations with a focus on Russian foreign policy from the State University of St. Petersburg in Russia. Prior to joining RANE, Joshua worked and lived in Germany and Ukraine, working on his Ph.D. in Soviet history and interning at the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, respectively. Joshua is fluent in English, German and Russian and actively learning French and Ukrainian.
AssessmentsFeb 19, 2024 | 14:00 GMT
The Modern Geopolitics of Russia
For much of its history, Russia has been a quintessential geopolitical great power, and it arguably remains so today. Russia's power stems from its vast territory and geography, which spans 11 time zones and possesses large reserves of nearly every strategic resource. The country's amassment of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world has only solidified great power status in more recent decades.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 16, 2024 | 17:31 GMT
The Coming Drag on Economic Growth From Security Competition in Asia and Europe
Increasing security competition in Asia and Europe will lead to a significant acceleration of national defense spending over the next decade, but defense spending measured as a share of GDP will remain below levels seen during the Cold War, which will limit the extent to which unproductive defense expenditure will be a drag on economic growth. Recent remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump about the need for European NATO member states to increase military spending have reignited a debate over the issue. While several EU and NATO officials have criticized Trump, military spending is nevertheless on the rise in Europe and elsewhere. Following the end of the Cold War, global defense expenditure declined sharply. The United States proved a notable exception among the world's largest economies against the backdrop of Washington's wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. As a share of global GDP, global military spending in 2022 was virtually
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 15, 2024 | 21:24 GMT
Russian Nuclear Capabilities in Space Could Threaten the World's Satellites
If confirmed, rumors that Russia intends to use nuclear weapons against satellites would force the West, China and commercial companies to come up with protective measures, while Washington and Beijing would also need to adapt their deterrence strategies vis-a-vis Moscow. The chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, said on Feb. 14 that he and other members of Congress had received new intelligence from the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden regarding a ''serious national security threat.'' While he declined to provide more information, he called on the Biden administration to declassify the intelligence to enable Washington to better coordinate with its allies on the matter. According to subsequent reporting by several U.S. media outlets, the threat appears to be related to Russia's development of nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. However, reporting on the device's type is inconsistent, as at least one reputable U.S. media
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 15, 2024 | 16:39 GMT
U.S.: First Private Moon Landing Mission Successfully Launches From U.S.
U.S. company SpaceX successfully launched Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lunar lander aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Reuters reported on Feb. 15.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsFeb 15, 2024 | 16:37 GMT
Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?
In 2024, a series of presidential and parliamentary elections will determine the political direction of countries accounting for roughly 40% of the world's population and about half of its GDP. While each of these elections will be different, many of them will see nationalist parties perform strongly thanks to a rhetoric that seeks to mitigate (and in some cases reverse) the effects of globalization. Some of these parties and leaders promote protectionism to shield domestic industries from foreign competition, others are critical of international organizations that they perceive as undermining national sovereignty, and many present immigration as a threat to national identity, security and job opportunities for their country's native populations. Considering the combined economic weight of the countries holding votes this year and the underlying socio-economic trends behind the anti-globalization sentiments, a question comes to mind: how will these elections impact the evolution of globalization in the short-to-medium term?
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 14, 2024 | 21:24 GMT
U.S.: Washington To Brief Senior Members of Congress on 'National Security Threat'
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said he will brief senior members of Congress about a national security matter on Feb. 15, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 14.
READ MORESnapshotsFeb 7, 2024 | 21:42 GMT
In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia
The re-election of Azerbaijan's president will clear the way for the country to continue pressuring Armenia to accept a peace deal under Baku's terms, and will keep alive the threat of further aggression. On Feb. 7, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev resoundingly won a snap presidential election after receiving over 90% of the vote, an all-time high. The election was held a year earlier than scheduled, presumably to enable Aliyev to capitalize on his popularity following Azerbaijan's seizure of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in September 2023, which effectively restored the country's internationally recognized border with Armenia. The election campaign was uneventful, with the main opposition groups again boycotting the vote as they have done for the past two presidential elections, while quasi-opposition candidates running alongside Aliyev praised his regime.
READ MOREAssessmentsJan 19, 2024 | 18:55 GMT
How a Border Deal Between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Could Benefit Central Asia
A border demarcation deal between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would reduce the risk of a larger conflict between the countries in the years to come, ultimately boosting regional economic prospects and transit connectivity, as well as the credibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
READ MORESituation ReportJan 19, 2024 | 17:38 GMT
Japan: SLIM Lunar Lander Successfully Landed on the Moon, but Power Issues Persist
The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA, said its Smart Lander for Investigating Moon, or SLIM, landed and was communicating, but the lander is using batteries because its solar cells and panels are not generating power.
READ MORESituation ReportJan 17, 2024 | 17:36 GMT
Slovakia, Ukraine: Slovakia's Parliament Enables Arms Exports to Ukraine
Slovakia's parliament approved an amendment to the so-called competence law that will allow the Defense Ministry to approve arms exports, paving the way for private and state-owned arms companies to continue exporting goods to Ukraine, Politico reported on Jan. 16.
READ MOREAnnual ForecastsJan 3, 2024 | 00:00 GMT
2024 Annual Geopolitical Forecast
Elections in 2024 across diverse territories and amid various socioeconomic and geopolitical contexts will collectively influence global affairs and shape international relations for the decade ahead.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsDec 25, 2023 | 01:13 GMT
In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China
The transfer of Arctic Council leadership in 2023 from Russia to Norway will not end the uncertainty over the organization's activities and role, but China is positioning for a greater role regardless of how things evolve. On May 11, Norway took over the two-year rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council, ending Russia's troublesome term. Oslo has been forthright in noting that the Arctic Council cannot simply pick up activities as if things are normal with Russia, but neither can there be effective Arctic cooperation without some engagement with Moscow or at least Russian entities. As the Arctic Council seeks to resume activities and balance the political isolation of Russia, China has offered its services as a friendly mediator to bridge the gap with Russia. Beijing also signed security and economic development deals with Moscow, ensuring China a stronger voice as the future of Arctic governance comes into question.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 20, 2023 | 21:01 GMT
The Implications of a Russian Victory in Ukraine
Should Western military and financial support for Ukraine weaken in 2024 and beyond, Russia will keep or even expand its territorial control of Ukraine, which will increase the risk of Russian aggressions against other countries amid an increasingly fragmented and ineffective West. On Dec. 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a large end-of-year press conference, marking the first time in nearly two years that he gave a public engagement of this type. His statements -- particularly on the back of his recent visit to the Middle East -- underscored Moscow's renewed confidence in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, Russia's economy, and Putin's grip on power ahead of Russia's March 2024 presidential election.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 7, 2023 | 16:38 GMT
Azerbaijan: Aliyev Calls For Early Feb. 7 Presidential Election
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev unexpectedly signed a decree calling a snap presidential election for Feb. 7, 2024, Eurasianet reported Dec. 7.
READ MORESnapshotsDec 6, 2023 | 22:07 GMT
The Aims and Implications of Putin's Trip to the UAE and Saudi Arabia
Russian President Vladimir Putin's trip to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aims to align the oil-rich countries on OPEC+ policy and reassure them about Russia's growing ties with Iran, while the likely lack of a significant U.S. response to the visit will create space for deeper Russian-Gulf cooperation and further foreign travel by Putin. On Dec. 6, Putin traveled to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss bilateral relations, oil trade and prices, and international affairs, namely the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. During his meeting with UAE leader Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Putin noted that relations between Russia and the United Arab Emirates had reached an ''unprecedentedly high level,'' and that Abu Dhabi was Moscow's main trading partner in the Arab world, with trade turnover between the two countries reportedly increasing by more than 67% last year. And in his meeting with Saudi Arabia
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsDec 4, 2023 | 19:30 GMT
The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests Versus Ideals
Henry Kissinger's death has engendered numerous articles, commentaries and remembrances, in praise and criticism of the former American diplomat, who served as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor under U.S. presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. As neither a diplomatic historian nor a former acquaintance, I will leave it to others to shed light on Kissinger's life and legacy. In looking at both the controversy around and adulation for Kissinger, however, I find his passing a time to reflect on the importance of strategic thought, and the need to balance interests and ideals. As a key actor during the Cold War, Kissinger emerged at a time when strategic thought was respected and sought after, and when the identification of national interests -- while still at times uncomfortable for many -- played a pivotal role in shaping foreign policy. In the post-Cold War West, both strategic thought and the concept
READ MOREOn SecurityNov 9, 2023 | 22:24 GMT
Considering the Future Terrorist Threat From the Israel-Hamas War
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has sent security services across the world into a panic over the potential for Islamist extremist attacks linked to the war. Already, lone actors in Belgium, Egypt and France have carried out lethal attacks, while affiliates of al Qaeda and the Islamic State have encouraged their followers to commit violence against Westerners, and particularly Jews. These risks will only grow as Israel's ground incursion into Gaza deepens.
READ MORE