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Situation ReportJan 7, 2026 | 19:26 GMT

South Africa: Government Amends Anti-Trust Laws To Ease High Power Costs for Distressed Sectors

South African trade minister Parks Tau amended the country's anti-trust rules to allow companies operating in "industries in distress" to jointly negotiate the purchase of power as well as collaborate on backup energy generation capacity and alternative energy supply, News24 reported on Jan. 7.

Situation ReportJan 7, 2026 | 18:00 GMT

China, U.S.: Christian Detentions Continue as Xi Suppresses Dissent, Risking U.S. Ties

Chinese security forces detained six members of the Early Rain Covenant Church, an unregistered "house church," in Chengdu on Jan. 6, Reuters reported the next day.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 7, 2026 | 17:31 GMT

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Announces Oil Deal With Caracas Worth Up To $2.8B

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the United States, Reuters reported on Jan. 6.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 7, 2026 | 17:13 GMT

China, Japan: Beijing Targets Japan's Chip Chemicals, Mulls Rare Earth Curbs

China's commerce ministry on Jan. 7 commenced a 12-18-month anti-dumping investigation into Japanese imports of dichlorosilane, a chemical used in semiconductor manufacturing.

Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 21:51 GMT

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

Ukraine's allies, representing the "Coalition of the Willing," agreed in Paris, France, to extend multilayered international security guarantees as part of a U.S.-brokered peace proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, AP reported on Jan. 6.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 19:56 GMT

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure

U.S. government officials have outlined to Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez that Washington's main priorities for Caracas are fighting drug trafficking, removing from the country operatives from Iran, Cuba and other nations hostile to the United States, and halting the shipment of oil to U.S. adversaries, Politico reported on Jan. 5.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 19:54 GMT

South Korea, Japan: Lee's Historical Visits, Trade Opportunism Constrain Tokyo Ties

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is in Shanghai with a business delegation following a Jan. 5 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in which they discussed technology and cultural goods exchanges and their shared history of fighting for independence from Japan, Yonhap News Agency reported on Jan. 6.

Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 19:51 GMT

China, Japan: Export Curbs To Impede Japan's Military Modernization, Harden Its National Security Focus

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Jan. 6 that it was banning all exports of items on its list of dual-use goods to "Japanese military users, for military purposes, and for any other end-user purposes that could enhance Japan's military capabilities."

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 19:24 GMT

U.S., Colombia: Colombian Government Tries To De-escalate Tensions Amid Trump-Petro Spat

Colombian government officials sent a message to the U.S. government saying the country would continue to cooperate in the fight against drug trafficking, Reuters reported on Jan. 5.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 18:14 GMT

Israel, Somalia: Israeli Foreign Minister Conducts First Visit to Somaliland After Recognition

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar visited Somaliland for the first time since Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent country on Dec. 27, 2025, Reuters reported on Jan. 6.

Palestinian Territories

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 18:12 GMT

Thailand, Cambodia: Mortar Incident Highlights Ceasefire's Fragility

On Jan. 5, a Thai soldier was injured by shrapnel after a mortar round landed in Thailand's Ubon Ratchathani province, with Thai authorities accusing Cambodia of breaching the two countries' Dec. 27, 2025, ceasefire as a result, the Bangkok Post reported the next day.

Military & Security

AssessmentsJan 6, 2026 | 15:46 GMT

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

In 2026, U.S. pressure on Greenland could range from expanded military deployments and economic and political coercion to unilateral intervention, which would aim to strengthen Washington's Arctic presence while eroding Danish authority and would prompt calibrated Russian, Chinese and European responses. During the 2024 presidential campaign and since his return to the White House in January 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in Greenland, often describing the territory as key for American national security. Throughout 2025, Trump repeatedly asserted that "ownership" and "control" of the island were an absolute necessity to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic, even refusing to rule out the use of military or economic coercion to achieve this goal. This stance has triggered significant tensions with Denmark and Greenland, with both governments repeatedly saying that the territory is not for sale. U.S. pressure peaked in late December 2025 with the appointment

Military & Security

AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 22:09 GMT

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela will remain highly volatile and exposed to internal violence and further U.S. attacks. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez will most likely adopt a pragmatic, cooperative stance toward Washington to ensure regime survival, but alternative scenarios include her opting for a defiant stance vis-a-vis Washington, a hard-line coup, an internal civil conflict and a highly unlikely transition to democracy.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 5, 2026 | 19:21 GMT

South Korea, China: Lee-Xi Chat Rosey on Economic Ties, Mixed on North Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, where the two sides signed 15 memorandums of understanding, including on establishing a ministerial-level commercial dialogue and deepening cooperation on artificial intelligence and cultural product exchanges, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5.

Military & Security

AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 18:00 GMT

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation ReportJan 5, 2026 | 17:46 GMT

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

China and Pakistan released a joint statement on Jan. 5 reaffirming their relations as "All-weather Strategic Cooperative Partners," with Beijing praising "the comprehensive measures" Pakistan has taken to counter terrorism and protect Chinese interests.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 5, 2026 | 16:50 GMT

Indonesia: Government Land Seizures Top 4 Million Hectares

Since March 2025, the Indonesian government under President Prabowo Subianto has seized more than 4 million hectares of palm oil plantations, mining concessions and processing facilities nationwide, transferring much of the land to state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara under a military-led task force, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5.

Situation ReportJan 5, 2026 | 16:48 GMT

Iran: Trump Reiterates Warnings to Iran as Protests Continue Into Ninth Day

At least 19 protesters have been killed in Iran as of Jan. 4 as protests entered their ninth day on Jan. 5, the BBC reported the same day, citing a report by the U.S.-based nongovernmental organization Human Rights Activists in Iran.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 5, 2026 | 16:36 GMT

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Israel and Syria resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris on a security agreement after around two months of negotiations being frozen, Reuters reported Jan. 5.

Military & Security

Annual ForecastsJan 5, 2026 | 00:00 GMT

2026 Annual Forecast

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

Forecasts

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