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SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 20:34 GMT
Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025.
Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West
The Dalai Lama's succession plans threaten to revive reputational risks for Western companies operating in China and could eventually open the door to a more violent confrontation between Beijing and a subset of the Dalai Lama's followers, which would harm China's relations with India and the West. On June 2, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, the Dalai Lama, said to a group of followers at a celebration of his birthday in the Indian city of Dharamshala that he planned to reincarnate after his death and that he had set up a non-profit group, the Gaden Phodrang Trust, that would have full authority to identify and proclaim his successor. An official with the Gaden Phodrang Trust said his successor could be of any gender and any nationality, but the head of the Tibetan government-in-exile, Penpa Tsering, cited the Dalai Lama as saying he would be reborn in "a free world,"
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China
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries
The U.S. decision to pause key arms deliveries to Ukraine will degrade Ukraine's ability to repel intensifying Russian attacks, raising the risk that Kyiv could eventually be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms in future peace negotiations if Washington does not reverse its decision or if Ukraine fails to secure alternative support. On July 1, the United States announced it was pausing the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. According to U.S. officials cited in multiple media reports, the weapons affected by this decision include interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, precision-guided artillery shells and air-launched missiles compatible with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets. While the list of delayed weapons has not been made public, if the media reports are accurate, the freeze will impact deliveries of weapons that are critical to Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities. On July 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it had not received any official
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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SnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
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Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025.
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
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India
Pakistan
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair.
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
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United States
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 19:32 GMT
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024.
In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church
In Armenia, an escalating dispute between the prime minister and the country's national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan, raising the risk of another military confrontation. On June 25, Armenian authorities arrested Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and 13 other people on charges of plotting violence and other destabilizing actions to overthrow the government and seize power. According to the country's top criminal investigative agency, the conspirators had recruited more than 1,000 people since the start of the year, and investigators allegedly have already recovered firearms, ammunition and other items linking them to the plot. The arrests, which the archbishop's supporters have called politically motivated, are the most severe developments in an escalating feud between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church, one of the most influential institutions in the country. The standoff began in late May,
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day.
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
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China
New Zealand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference at a hotel in Paris on June 24, 2025.
In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability
The collapse of France's pension reform negotiations could undermine Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's fragile minority government, increasing the risk of no-confidence votes, budgetary deadlock and potentially early elections at a time when the country is facing mounting pressure to rein in its growing deficit. On June 23, months-long negotiations between French unions and employer groups over potential amendments to President Emmanuel Macron's contested 2023 pensions reform collapsed. The talks focused on revising the law that gradually raises France's retirement age from 62 to 64, as part of a last-ditch attempt to ease tensions between the government, trade unions and opposition parties. Prime Minister Bayrou had tasked unions and employers with identifying compromise measures, including earlier retirement options for physically demanding jobs and greater recognition of maternity leave. However, employer groups reportedly opposed any changes that they argued would impose new costs and could threaten the financial balance of the system.
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France
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 16:48 GMT
Iranian missiles aimed at targets in Israel pass through the sky over the West Bank on June 17, 2025.
The Iran-Israel Ceasefire Will Remain Fragile Amid Unresolved Disputes
Even if a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds in the coming weeks and months, a series of unresolved issues leaves the door open to violations that will likely strain and could collapse the truce in the future. On June 23, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire that was scheduled to enter into effect early on June 24. Though the Iranian foreign minister initially denied agreeing to the ceasefire, saying it would only stop attacking Israel once Israeli attacks stopped, Iranian state media later claimed that the ceasefire was "imposed on the enemy." Israel similarly agreed to stop attacks on Iran so long as Iran halted its own attacks. Ahead of the ceasefire deadline, Iran launched missiles that killed three Israelis and injured several more. Israel also launched a series of attacks against different areas in Tehran, in
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United States
Iran
Israel
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 23, 2025 | 21:12 GMT
A photo taken on June 23, 2025, shows the remnants of an Iranian missile intercepted over Qatar.
With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions
Absent further retaliation, Iran's seemingly limited response to the June 22 U.S. attacks enables a path toward de-escalation between the two sides, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict. On 23 June, Iran launched multiple missiles against Qatar's al-Udeid Air Base, which houses the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. Qatar released a statement condemning Iran's attack on the airbase, which had been partially evacuated as a precaution, and noted that Qatari air defenses intercepted the Iranian missiles, which caused no casualties. According to Iranian state-backed media, Iran's Supreme National Security Council claimed that the attack "obliterated" the al-Udeid Air Base -- the same word U.S. President Donald Trump used to describe the damage the recent U.S. strikes did to Iran's nuclear facilities -- and that Iran deployed the same number of missiles as the number of bombs (14)
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United States
Iran
Israel
Qatar
Military & Security
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