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ColumnsMar 23, 2026 | 15:46 GMT
Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.
The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon
After two and a half years of war, Israel appears to now be moving to attempt to severely, if not completely, eradicate the threat stemming from Iran's most important ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon. The current round of Hezbollah-Israel conflict did not emerge in isolation but as part of the broader regional escalation that followed the outbreak of war between the United States, Israel and Iran on Feb. 28. Hezbollah entered the conflict on March 2 by launching rockets and drones toward Israel in what it framed as support for Iran and retaliation for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. What initially appeared to be a symbolic demonstration of solidarity quickly evolved into sustained cross-border fighting that has drawn Lebanon deeper into the regional war. Despite having been heavily battered in the 2024 conflict with Israel, Hezbollah has surprised Israeli planners by demonstrating that it retains meaningful operational capabilities. Among
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United States
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Syria
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 20, 2026 | 20:58 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.
In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks
The Iran war will increase demand for Russian energy, but the resulting revenue gains will likely remain temporary and offset by other costs; still, especially in the case of a protracted conflict in the Middle East, weaker sanctions enforcement and higher oil prices will buoy Moscow's ability to sustain its war in Ukraine for longer. To mitigate energy market shocks caused by the Iran war, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. On March 12, the White House expanded a March 4 waiver, initially limited to India, authorizing a 30-day license for the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto vessels at sea. A week later, on March 19, this relief was expanded to cover petroleum products in addition to crude, allowing the sale of existing tanker cargoes to nearly all countries. The two U.S. sanction waivers,
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsMar 20, 2026 | 15:08 GMT
People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.
Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot
The Gulf Cooperation Council states will shift their economic strategies to domestic and core regional interests as a result of the Iran war, with a renewed focus on domestic infrastructure, safety nets and strategies for comparative advantage to help them recover some of the attractiveness lost during the war. This is likely to impact international investments, long-term domestic projects and reshape their economic links. GCC member states face varying degrees of economic impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and accompanying Iran war that began Feb. 28. According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, a two-month closure could cause loss of up to 14% GDP for Qatar and Kuwait and 3-5% GDP for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2026. However, such estimates are preliminary and do not fully account for potential future damage to regional infrastructure, the possibility of food and fuel shocks pushing up the costs
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United States
Bahrain
Iran
Israel
Kuwait
Oman
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 19, 2026 | 18:54 GMT
Danish Defense Minister and top candidate of Denmark's Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen (left), and Danish Prime Minister and top candidate of the Social Democrat Party, Mette Frederiksen (right), attend a debate in Copenhagen on March 15, 2026.
Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Denmark will hold parliamentary elections on March 24. The campaign has been shaped by debates over welfare, taxation, migration and the pace of the green transition, as well as tensions surrounding U.S. demands over Greenland. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the election while seeking to capitalize on a partial rebound in support linked in part to her defiant handling of Washington's pressure on Greenland. However, any new government will likely adopt a somewhat more conciliatory tone in an effort to contain tensions, prevent further escalation and reach a compromise if possible. Meanwhile, the governing center-left Social Democrats, center-right Venstre and centrist Moderates remain weakened by years of cross-bloc compromise and voter fatigue. Polling suggests the election is unlikely to produce a clean or ideologically cohesive majority, leaving coalition-building dependent on broad alliances or issue-based support from smaller and potentially opposition parties.
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Greenland
Denmark
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 18, 2026 | 19:32 GMT
A man fills up his truck at a Petroleum Sarawak Berhad (Petros) station in Kuching, Malaysia, on June 20, 2025.
Malaysia's Ballooning Fuel Subsidy Costs Will Test the Government's Reform Agenda
Malaysia is absorbing the Iran war's energy shock through fuel subsidies, but if higher prices persist, the government may have to sacrifice economic reforms to preserve political support ahead of the next election. Following the onset of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran on Feb. 28 and the resulting disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Malaysia has sought to shield domestic consumers from rising global fuel costs by maintaining subsidized gasoline prices. On March 11, Malaysia's finance ministry confirmed that the government would keep the price of RON95 gasoline at roughly $0.51 per liter (RM1.99) under the BUDI95 targeted subsidy program, thereby preventing higher global oil prices from passing through to consumers. The decision significantly increased government spending on fuel subsidies as the state compensates fuel retailers for the gap between fixed pump prices and higher market-based costs (albeit with part of the fiscal burden offset by revenues from
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Malaysia
Energy
Politics
AssessmentsMar 18, 2026 | 15:37 GMT
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi addresses a news conference at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Feb. 18.
Iran War Heightens Stakes of Key Takaichi-Trump Summit
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will likely be able to make sufficient concessions to U.S. President Donald Trump during their summit to avoid U.S. retaliation and/or a slowdown in her own military modernization policies, but a protracted Iran war could nonetheless undermine her economic growth plans. Takaichi will visit Washington on March 19 to meet with Trump for the first time since she was reappointed as premier on Feb. 18, aiming to firm up relations with Japan's top defense ally and second-largest trade partner. Until recently, the meeting was expected to focus on implementing their July trade deal, cooperating on energy and technology supply chains and coordinating military modernization efforts to jointly deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. On March 14 and 15, however, a more fraught issue was added to the list when Trump demanded that U.S. allies and partners like Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom assist the
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United States
Japan
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 17, 2026 | 22:11 GMT
Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.
The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts
A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships through the Strait of Hormuz would likely only commence once the intensity of the Iran conflict dies down, and even then, such a mission would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited resumption of shipping, unless a comprehensive de-escalation agreement is also reached. In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has been increasing pressure on countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has dropped over 90% since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began on Feb. 28. In a March 16 post on Truth Social, Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and "others" to send naval vessels to the Middle East. The following day, he said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if the alliance's members did not help protect commercial ships transiting the strait from Iranian attacks. But despite
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United States
Iran
Europe
Economics
Military & Security
Situation ReportMar 17, 2026 | 14:56 GMT
U.K., Netherlands, Finland: Countries Explore New Joint Defense Financing and Procurement Mechanism
Finland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are exploring a new multilateral mechanism to jointly finance and procure weapons, munitions and other military equipment with the aim of accelerating defense investment and expanding demand amid Europe's broader rearmament push, according to a March 17 joint statement by the three governments.
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Europe
Germany
Finland
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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