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AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 22:16 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.
Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026
While Ethiopia is unlikely to launch a large-scale invasion of Eritrea in 2026, worsening tensions over sea access and Asmara's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government increase the likelihood of intensifying proxy clashes along the border that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation. On Oct. 28, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for international mediation regarding Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, stressing that maritime access was a "matter of survival" for Ethiopia. This came after Abiy claimed in early September that it was only a "matter of time" before Ethiopia regained access to the Eritrean port of Assab, arguing that the loss of the port following Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia in 1993 had been a "mistake." These comments came as Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, in early October of entering a pact to "wage
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 9, 2025 | 22:26 GMT
A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.
Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa
Benin's failed coup will likely heighten political tensions and undermine counterterrorism operations in the country ahead of its 2026 presidential elections, while ECOWAS's rapid intervention -- driven by Nigeria and with French backing -- signals a potential shift toward Abuja taking greater leadership over regional security matters. On the evening of Dec. 7, the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, announced the immediate deployment of a standby force to Benin comprising troops from Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire and Sierra Leone. This came after mutineers led by the head of Benin's Special Forces Group, Lt. Colonel Pascal Tigri, announced earlier in the day on state media the removal of Beninese President Patrice Talon from power, the suspension of the constitution and the dissolution of state institutions. However, a significant portion of Beninese security forces remained loyal to Talon, who announced in the evening of Dec. 7 that the situation
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Benin
Nigeria
France
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 9, 2025 | 22:01 GMT
A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand.
Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention
The latest round of clashes between Cambodian and Thai forces may yet surpass the scale of their July conflict, and though a return to the ceasefire is likely in the coming days, there will be a high risk of further flare-ups in the months ahead, especially in the lead-up to Thailand's expected elections in March. On Dec. 7, Thai and Cambodian military forces commenced another round of clashes in disputed territories along the two countries' shared border, with fighting still ongoing as of Dec. 9 and involving significant firepower. This includes widespread small arms and artillery fire from both sides, Thailand's use of airstrikes and tanks to strike Cambodian military targets and civilian targets allegedly used by the military (e.g., casinos and scam centers), and Cambodia's use of suicide and bomb-dropping drones against Thai forces. The latest round of fighting has expanded to nearly all border provinces, with the Thai
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United States
Cambodia
Thailand
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025 | 18:18 GMT
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
In October, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense published its biennial National Defense Report (NDR), which describes the state of Taiwan's security environment, as well as the goals for and challenges to developing the island nation's military. The report suggests the Taiwan military's arms procurement and recruitment capabilities are growing to help it deter and defend against a Chinese invasion. But it is still unclear how well Taiwan could coordinate a whole-of-society defense effort, necessitating deeper informal ties with the West and the broadcasting of China's aggressive gray-zone activities to gain Western support. Likewise, Taiwan's ability to deter Chinese aggression shy of an invasion (e.g., a blockade) depends as much on political signals and Lai's willingness to escalate as it does on Taiwan's military capabilities. The upshot is that Taipei is demonstrating growing intent and tactical capabilities but not yet the administrative capacity to carry out a sustained defense. Moreover, perhaps
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China
Taiwan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 3, 2025 | 21:23 GMT
A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025.
Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace
Talks between Lebanon and Israel will probably continue despite Hezbollah's obstructions, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months. On Dec. 3, Lebanese and Israeli civilian representatives held direct talks for the first time in four decades to establish a political and economic foundation for ties between the two countries. The talks occurred under the monitoring mechanism established to oversee the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, and were held at the U.N. peacekeeping force headquarters in the Lebanese town of Naqoura, near the border with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a representative from the Israeli National Security Council, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun sent Lebanon's former ambassador to the United States, Simon Karam, to head their respective delegations. Senior U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus also attended the meeting.
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Israel
Lebanon
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 25, 2025 | 21:00 GMT
Employees work at a garment factory in Tiruppur, in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Sept. 23, 2025.
India's Labor Code Reforms: Opportunities and Implementation Challenges
In India, major labor law reforms will gradually make the economy more formalized, investor-friendly and competitive, but the near-term potential for uneven adoption across states will continue to create compliance challenges and legal risks for companies, while union strikes and protests will likely pose short-term disruptions. On Nov. 21, the Indian government implemented four labor codes that merge decades-old laws into a streamlined framework aimed at simplifying and standardizing regulations. The reform is the biggest of its kind in decades, and seeks to foster a more investment-friendly environment while also enhancing worker benefits through better regulating and expanding social security, workplace safety, gender equality and minimum wages. However, the new codes have drawn strong pushback from unions, which argue they give companies greater leeway in hiring and firing, determining wages and working hours, and undermining union influence. To this end, ten of India's largest trade unions -- which collectively comprise
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India
Economics
Politics
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