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AssessmentsJul 4, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties
Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will continue expanding their oil and gas exports to emerging markets, particularly in Asia, while these countries seek alternative export markets to the United States amid tariff uncertainty; but despite these shifting trade dynamics, Gulf Arab countries will maintain strong military and technological ties with the United States. The oil-rich countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman) are set to benefit from changing global trade partners. While hydrocarbon products currently comprise most of GCC nations' global exports, a significant portion of their trade growth is expected to come from non-hydrocarbon sectors in the coming years. This shift is part of their long-term economic and trade diversification strategies (including Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar's National Vision 2030), which are all aimed
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United States
Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
China
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsJul 3, 2025 | 20:29 GMT
Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang answers reporters' questions about the new Vietnam-U.S. trade deal during a press conference in Hanoi on July 3, 2025.
The Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, but the Devil Is in the Details
The U.S.-Vietnam trade deal lowers headline tariffs, but the lack of key details leaves major uncertainty around specifics and enforcement aspects that could reshape investment and squeeze exporters across China-linked and Southeast Asian supply chains. On July 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam in which the United States will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam -- a measure clearly targeting Chinese goods shipped through Vietnam. The agreement was announced just days ahead of a self-imposed July 9 deadline that could have seen the United States place a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods. As a part of the deal, Trump said that Vietnam would eliminate all tariffs on imports of U.S. goods. However, the Vietnamese government has not yet released details or legal text on such plans, and Vietnamese officials have stated that negotiations around finer
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United States
China
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
SnapshotsJul 3, 2025 | 19:58 GMT
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025.
A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension
In Thailand, the prime minister's suspension creates a new political crisis that raises the risk of government collapse and economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions. On July 1, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office while it reviews a petition alleging she violated the constitution by conducting foreign policy in an unethical and unauthorized manner. The complaint, which was submitted by 36 senators, centers on the prime minister's June 15 phone call with Hun Sen, Cambodia's former prime minister and current Senate president, during which she discussed ongoing border demarcation tensions and referred to the Thai military as an "opponent." Hun leaked an audio recording of the call, which triggered an uproar in Thailand, with critics arguing that Paetongtarn's tone was overly deferential and that she undermined Thailand's negotiating position in its long-running territorial dispute with Cambodia around un-demarcated border temple regions. On June 18, the Bhumjaithai
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Cambodia
Thailand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJul 3, 2025 | 14:17 GMT
A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025.
In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan
The diplomatic row between Azerbaijan and Russia illustrates the Kremlin's declining influence in the Caucasus and will increasingly enable competing powers to fill the void, especially if the feud worsens. In recent days, Baku and Moscow have traded tit-for-tat measures that have further weakened their relationship. Problems began on June 27, when Russian authorities arrested dozens of people of Azerbaijani origin, two of whom died after being taken into custody, in connection with a string of unsolved violent incidents in 2001-11. In response, on June 29, Azerbaijani authorities canceled all cultural events with Russian participation as well as two intergovernmental meetings. On June 30, Azerbaijani police raided the office of the Russian state-backed news agency Sputnik over the outlet's continued operation after the rescission of its license earlier this year; police detained seven employees (two of whom were formally arrested) on multiple charges, including espionage, fraud and illegal financing. Eight
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 20:34 GMT
Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025.
Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West
The Dalai Lama's succession plans threaten to revive reputational risks for Western companies operating in China and could eventually open the door to a more violent confrontation between Beijing and a subset of the Dalai Lama's followers, which would harm China's relations with India and the West. On June 2, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, the Dalai Lama, said to a group of followers at a celebration of his birthday in the Indian city of Dharamshala that he planned to reincarnate after his death and that he had set up a non-profit group, the Gaden Phodrang Trust, that would have full authority to identify and proclaim his successor. An official with the Gaden Phodrang Trust said his successor could be of any gender and any nationality, but the head of the Tibetan government-in-exile, Penpa Tsering, cited the Dalai Lama as saying he would be reborn in "a free world,"
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China
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsJul 2, 2025 | 17:30 GMT
Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.
Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions
Vietnam's historic administrative restructuring will trigger short-term bureaucratic friction but lays the foundation for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency and improved investment conditions if the government effectively implements the changes over time. On June 30, Vietnam officially rolled out its most significant administrative restructuring in its post-unification history. This followed the National Assembly passing a resolution on June 12 to merge the country's 63 provincial‑level units into 34, now comprising 28 provinces and six centrally governed, provincial-level cities. This reform rests on an earlier April 12 directive from the Central Committee that authorized merging 52 previously existing provinces into 23 new units, the elimination of the entire district level (formerly there were 696 mid-level jurisdictions between province and commune), and a 60-70 % reduction in commune-level units under a new province-commune two‑tier model (with the prior inclusion of the district level constituting a three-tier model). The new local administrations formally assumed full
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Vietnam
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries
The U.S. decision to pause key arms deliveries to Ukraine will degrade Ukraine's ability to repel intensifying Russian attacks, raising the risk that Kyiv could eventually be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms in future peace negotiations if Washington does not reverse its decision or if Ukraine fails to secure alternative support. On July 1, the United States announced it was pausing the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. According to U.S. officials cited in multiple media reports, the weapons affected by this decision include interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, precision-guided artillery shells and air-launched missiles compatible with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets. While the list of delayed weapons has not been made public, if the media reports are accurate, the freeze will impact deliveries of weapons that are critical to Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities. On July 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it had not received any official
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsJul 1, 2025 | 15:42 GMT
Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.
The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program
Argentina has made significant strides in terms of macroeconomic stabilization and, bolstered by a new IMF program, the country's short-term outlook remains broadly favorable, despite approaching legislative elections in October and the concomitant risk of policy slippage. Since taking office in December 2023, the government of President Javier Milei has implemented a very substantial fiscal adjustment and broader structural reform. This enabled Argentina to reach a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, which commits the government to continued fiscal discipline, a liberalization of exchange rate policies, and structural reform. The new IMF program will also provide Argentina with foreign-exchange liquidity, thus making the country's external financing outlook more manageable. As a condition necessary to secure the IMF program, Argentina abolished its crawling peg exchange rate regime, which risked exacerbating peso overvaluation and balance-of-payments problems. The government has adopted a floating foreign exchange regime within a pre-determined
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Argentina
Economics
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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