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Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

SITUATION REPORTAug 6, 2020 | 20:25 GMT

China, Russia: Countries Decrease Use of U.S. Dollar in Bilateral Transactions

Bilateral trade between China and Russia is moving away from the U.S. dollar, bringing the two countries closer to a “financial alliance,” according to an Aug. 6 report released by Nikkei Asian Review.

China

Russia

Economics

Russia's Internal Struggle

U.S., China: Beijing Condemns Health Secretary’s Upcoming Visit to Taiwan

SITUATION REPORTAug 6, 2020 | 18:52 GMT

China’s foreign ministry said it firmly opposes any official U.S. exchanges with Taiwan, warning that a visit to the island by a U.S. Cabinet official would threaten “peace and stability” in the region, AFP reported Aug. 5. The statement comes a day after the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced that Secretary Alex Azar would lead a delegation to Taipai in the coming days to discuss Taiwan’s successful COVID-19 strategy.

RANE Insights: Dealing With Megadisasters and Multifaceted Crises Part I

PodcastsAug 4, 2020 | 20:59 GMT

In this podcast, part one of two, RANE Founder David Lawrence sits down with Jeff Schlegelmilch, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Earth Institute and author of "Rethinking Readiness: a Brief Guide to Twenty-First-Century Megadisasters."

SITUATION REPORTAug 4, 2020 | 19:39 GMT

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Lashes Out Against Moscow in Speech, Deploys Troops to Russian Border

In a campaign speech, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused the Russian government of lying and attempting to destabilize Belarus, pointing to the July 29 arrests of Russian mercenaries outside Minsk, RBC reported Aug 4.

Thailand: Prime Minister Warns Protesters Not to ‘Create Chaos’

SITUATION REPORTAug 4, 2020 | 19:19 GMT

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha asked anti-government protesters not to “create chaos” following a recent gathering in Bangkok that openly called for reforms to the country’s constitutional monarchy, Reuters reported Aug 4.

Thailand

Politics

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

AssessmentsAug 4, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

Plainclothed Belarus' security forces and riot police officers detain a protester at an opposition demonstration in Minsk, Belarus, on July 14, 2020.

In Belarus, an Election Fuels the Fight for Russia's Borderlands

The likely tumultuous aftermath of Belarus's upcoming presidential election could significantly shake up the balance of power in the strategic borderland region between Russia and Western Europe. Amid the growing popularity of opposition movements in Belarus, the outcome of the country's Aug. 9 presidential election is widely expected to be heavily contested. The likely emergence of post-election protests will cast doubt over President Alexander Lukashenko's grasp on power and could open the door to a potential regime change. Belarus's importance to Russia's external security strategy will make Moscow extremely invested in the outcome of any power struggle in the country, which could prompt Russia to intervene directly.

In Jordan, a Government Crackdown on Civil Dissent Risks Backfiring

SnapshotsAug 4, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

The arrests of teachers union leaders in Jordan risks fueling unrest in the typically politically stable country against a government the United States relies on for its regional counterterrorism efforts. On July 25, Jordanian security forces arrested over a dozen key members of the Jordanian Teachers Syndicate and charged them with corruption, incitement, financial irregularities and criminal activities. Forces also raided the union’s offices and shut them down for two years. Nasser Nawasreh, acting head of the Teachers Syndicate, was charged with incitement specifically over a speech he gave on July 22 that sharply criticized Prime Minister Omar Razzaz’s government. A government spokesman said that the arrests were conducted to prevent the union from staging planned sit-ins and demonstrations that risked harming “the state’s essential services and their functioning.”

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTAug 3, 2020 | 20:26 GMT

China: Microsoft Wins Six-Week Reprieve From U.S. TikTok Ban

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced that the company has gained a six-week reprieve from the proposed White House TikTok ban to allow time for discussion of a potential purchase of the social media app from Chinese technology company ByteDance, CNBC reported Aug. 2.

United States

China

Amid a Global COVID-19 Resurgence, Oil Prices Are Poised to Stall

AssessmentsAug 3, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

An oil pumpjack operates in Signal Hill, California, on April 21, 2020, a day after oil prices dropped to below zero amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The resurgence of COVID-19 infections in many countries around the world has undermined the oil market's notion that the recovery in petroleum product demand will continue upward in the absence of a vaccine. Expectations of a swift demand recovery in recent weeks have also been hampered by concerns about new mandatory lockdowns in places where economic activity had resumed, as well as slower economic recoveries elsewhere. Crude oil prices are thus likely to stall heading into the fourth quarter of 2020 as global demand remains sluggish, while modest rises in OPEC+ supply undermine efforts to rapidly balance the market and drain excess inventories. This means the fiscal position of countries highly dependent on oil export revenues will likely continue to be strained, and that any recovery in drilling activity and the oilfield services sector will also be slow.

The Saudi Survival Strategy

A Crude Recovery

GuidanceAug 1, 2020 | 14:00 GMT

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam at government headquarters in Hong Kong on July 31, 2020.

The Weekly Rundown: Delayed Elections in Hong Kong; Greece and Turkey Talk

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

SnapshotsJul 31, 2020 | 18:13 GMT

The Eurozone's Shrinking GDP Growth Solidifies a Slow Recovery

Rising COVID-19 infections will slow the eurozone's economic recovery by forcing governments to reintroduce lockdown measures that undermine business activity. Recessions across the bloc could last well into 2021 -- keeping consumption, investment and trade below pre-pandemic levels for several more months, while increasing the chances of business uncertainty and social unrest. The economic recovery will be particularly slow in Southern Europe due to the disproportionate impact of lockdown measures on the region's tourism-based economies, some of which were already in recessions before the pandemic. Ongoing uncertainty about future lockdown measures and the potential lifting of national stimulus efforts also means the risk of bankruptcies, financial crises and social unrest across Europe will remain high in the coming months.

The Fate of the Eurozone

SnapshotsJul 31, 2020 | 16:39 GMT

A Year-Long Election Delay Extends Hong Kong’s Political Crisis

The one-year delay of the Hong Kong election appears to be an attempt to exhaust the opposition pro-democracy camp, though it may instead serve as a rallying point domestically and internationally. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced July 31 that the Legislative Council elections would be delayed by a year, to Sept. 5, 2021, citing the COVID-19 pandemic and her prerogative under the Emergency Regulation Ordinance. The delay, however, was more likely a desperate move by Lam and her pro-Beijing camp, who was facing the real possibility of a much larger win for the pro-democracy camp. As such, the move may embolden the opposition to keep up pressure through international contact and domestic resistance -- whether via organized rallies and protests, or in the Legislative Council before its current term ends Sept. 30.

SnapshotsJul 31, 2020 | 14:48 GMT

The U.S. Economic Recession Grows Deeper and Bleaker

The United States is likely to experience a weak economy for a prolonged period, which, when combined with high debt levels, will have long-lasting effects on federal spending and perhaps even Washington's ability to exercise global influence as the country turns inward. The United States' pandemic-induced recession may have bottomed out in the April-June quarter, with GDP shrinking at a record pace. But with growth sluggish even before the pandemic, prospects for the U.S. economy remain stark. Base effects alone probably ensure positive growth in the third quarter of 2020, though signs the U.S. recovery is already slowing means another contraction in the fourth quarter cannot be ruled out. And with infections on the rise across America, there's an increasing chance that U.S. GDP growth could remain below pre-pandemic levels for years to come.

United States

COVID-19

Economics

Hong Kong: National Security Law Used to Disqualify Candidates, Make Arrests

SITUATION REPORTJul 30, 2020 | 20:12 GMT

Hong Kong authorities disqualified 12 opposition candidates from Legislative Council elections scheduled for Sept. 6, four of whom currently hold office, the South China Morning Post reported July 30.

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

The U.S.-China Ideological Divide and the Challenge of Cohesion

On GeopoliticsJul 30, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

A display shows the national flags of China and the United States at the Group of 20 (G-20) Summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.

A series of foreign policy speeches by key officials in U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has sought to redefine the U.S.-China strategic competition as one based on conflicting core ideologies between those of the Chinese Communist Party and those of the free world. But to be effective, the United States needs to revive domestic unity and engender global cooperation, while China only needs to maintain domestic unity and exploit global divisions.

Modernizing China’s Military

Belarus, Russia: Alleged Wagner Mercenaries Arrested Near Minsk

SITUATION REPORTJul 29, 2020 | 20:00 GMT

Belarusian security forces arrested 33 mercenaries allegedly belonging to the Russian private military company Wagner the evening of July 28, The Moscow Times reported July 29.

Belarus

Russia

Is Uganda's 30-Year Run of Political Stability Nearing an End?

SnapshotsJul 29, 2020 | 18:37 GMT

The presidential candidacy of Ugandan pop star Bobi Wine represents the most significant challenge to the country's longtime president, Yoweri Museveni, whose failure to address growing youth unemployment and disillusionment with the current ruling elite is placing the country on a long-term trajectory of political unrest. Wine has been able to connect with younger Ugandan voters in a way that previous opposition figures could not. Museveni and his ruling NRM party will pull out all the stops to ensure they remain in power, including crackdowns on Wine and his party's rallies, which will increase the risk of pre-and post-election unrest. But even if Museveni can control the outcome of the next election, his failure to address increasing political and economic grievances suggests Uganda’s 30-year run of political stability is nearing an end.

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

PodcastsJul 29, 2020 | 10:50 GMT

RANE Insights: New DOJ Guidelines - A Primer, Part Two

In this episode of the RANE Insights series, part two of two, host David Lawrence role-plays possible scenarios for multinationals under revised U.S. Department of Justice "Evaluation of Corporate Compliance Programs" guidance.

AssessmentsJul 29, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

Ukraine's new central bank chief, Kyrylo Shevchenko, wears a face mask as he watches lawmakers vote on his candidacy during a parliamentary session on July 16, 2020.

Is Ukraine on Thin Ice with the IMF?

A potential falling out with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over monetary policy and independence of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) would be highly damaging, but not catastrophic, to Ukraine's economic recovery efforts. The economic fallout from COVID-19 has made Kyiv heavily dependent on the bailout money it's receiving from the IMF, as well as the European Union. The IMF has placed Kyiv on a fairly short leash, warning that the recent appointment of Kyrylo Shevchenko -- an advocate of easier monetary policy and ally of President Volodymyr Zelensky -- raises questions regarding the NBU's independence and possible politicization. Zelensky and Shevchenko's political views are unlikely to cause the IMF to suspend its assistance to Ukraine, though the actions of the NBU will be monitored closely.