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AssessmentsMay 16, 2025 | 20:34 GMT
Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address in Lima on July 28, 2024.
In Peru, Greater Political Stability Could Unleash Economic Growth
In Peru, heightened political instability has so far not led to economic crises or financial turmoil, but likely reduced institutional volatility under a new administration, combined with efforts to reduce bureaucratic red tape, could help the country attract foreign investment and leverage its potential as a key mining and trade hub in the region. On May 5, Peru's opposition in Congress filed an internal investigation request claiming President Dina Boluarte violated the constitution when she allegedly temporarily abandoned her role in June 2023 to undergo plastic surgery in secret -- something Boluarte has repeatedly denied. This comes on top of other investigations Boluarte is facing over alleged human rights violations, corruption and embezzlement, along with accusations that her government has failed to curb the growing presence of organized criminal groups in Peru's cities and mining areas. Amid the worsening security crisis, Boluarte's popularity has plummeted, with her approval rating now
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Peru
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsMay 15, 2025 | 19:06 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (L) address journalists following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on May 10, 2025, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour
Vietnam's expanding partnerships with Eurasian countries, chiefly Russia, will enhance its multialigned position and give Moscow an opening to reassert influence in Southeast Asia, but structural constraints will limit the extent of cooperation. From May 6-12, Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam, the country's de facto top leader, undertook a high-profile diplomatic tour of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia. The trip culminated in a landmark summit on May 9 with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, during which the two sides issued a 33-point joint statement outlining the 2026-30 Vietnam-Russia Strategic Partnership Plan, which significantly deepens ties between the two countries under their comprehensive strategic partnership framework. The updated framework includes accelerated finalization of negotiations to implement two Russian-built nuclear power plants in Vietnam's Ninh Thuan province with a planned combined capacity of 6.4 gigawatts and an operational target of 2030 to 2035. The new strategic partnership plan also
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Vietnam
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsMay 15, 2025 | 15:15 GMT
Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard
In the more than a month since U.S. President Donald Trump announced his so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, the protectionist trade policy has introduced shocks to the global economy that are only beginning to reverberate. While there are still many unknowns about how the White House will proceed, what is clear is that U.S. tariffs will prove economically and politically very disruptive to financially distressed developing economies, even if Washington decides not to follow through with its reciprocal tariff policy or lower announced trade restrictions over time. This is largely because U.S. trade policy has created significant economic and financial uncertainty, which will increase economic and financial risks, as well as introduce political instability risks, particularly in financially distressed, developing economies that are reliant on commodity exports. Those that have significant bilateral trade surpluses with the United States face even larger risks due to the higher reciprocal tariffs
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United States
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsMay 14, 2025 | 21:15 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters aboard Air Force One on May 14, 2025, as he flies to Doha, Qatar, for his first trip to the Middle East since returning to the White House.
In Syria, the Promise and Limits of U.S. Sanctions Relief
The removal of U.S. sanctions on Syria will open the door for Gulf Arab and Turkish investments to help kickstart the economy, spur normalization with Lebanon and talks on normalizing with Israel, and further cement the provisional government's power base. However, the slow pace of recovery, sectarian infighting, Israeli aggression and a resurging Islamic State will hamper Syria's progress. Donald Trump became the first U.S. president in 25 years to meet with a Syrian leader on May 14, a day after he announced the lifting of all sanctions on Syria while visiting Saudi Arabia. In a statement, the White House confirmed that the meeting was attended by interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan joining remotely. Additionally, the White House said Trump asked al-Sharaa to deport Palestinian militants in Syria, normalize ties with Israel and help the United States
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United States
Syria
SnapshotsMay 12, 2025 | 21:55 GMT
Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025.
Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive
The U.S.-China tariff reductions will provide near-term economic relief for both countries, even as significant long-term decoupling remains likely, and they will embolden China to retaliate strongly in future spats and to withhold major consumer stimulus at home. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on May 12 that they had reached a deal with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng during May 10-11 meetings in Geneva, Switzerland, to temporarily cut tariffs for 90 days during further negotiations. These cuts, effective May 14, will reduce U.S. tariffs introduced in April on Chinese imports from 125% to 10%. However, the 20% U.S. tariffs on China ostensibly over its role in the fentanyl trade, various U.S. sectoral tariffs (e.g., on automobiles, steel and aluminum), and the roughly 25% U.S. tariffs on China imposed before U.S. President Donald Trump took office will remain in place. The May 12 deal
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United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsMay 12, 2025 | 17:54 GMT
This combination of pictures shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) during a press conference in Berlin on June 11, 2024, and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow on March 18, 2025.
Russia Agrees To Hold Talks With Ukraine Amid U.S. Pressure, but Peace Will Remain Elusive
Russia's proposal for direct talks with Ukraine is a response to growing U.S. pressure, but divisions over ceasefire terms, territorial control and security guarantees will likely limit progress to modest de-escalation steps in the short term. On May 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a call for a 30-day ceasefire that Kyiv and its European partners had made earlier that day, and instead proposed holding direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Turkey on May 15. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he would be in Istanbul on May 15 and was ready to meet with Putin there. During a May 11 phone call with Putin 1, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said his country was prepared to host the peace talks. While Russia has not confirmed whether Putin himself will travel to Istanbul, Russian and Ukrainian delegations are expected to hold some kind of bilateral meeting on May 15. A trilateral
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsMay 8, 2025 | 20:59 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump -- flanked by Vice President JD Vance (left) and Peter Mandelson, the U.K. ambassador to the United States (right) -- holds a phone call with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office of the White House on May 8, 2025.
Trump Reaches First Post-Tariff Trade Deal With the U.K.
The new U.S.-U.K. trade deal suggests that the White House's primary demand in trade talks is to restrict exports to the United States, as well as secure some more limited concessions on buying more U.S. goods or reducing import trade barriers; but the agreement also suggests that tariff relief for most countries reaching deals will be limited. On May 8, the United States and United Kingdom announced a trade deal, which the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative called the "US-UK Agreement in Principle to negotiate an Economic Prosperity Deal," marking the first agreement the United States has reached with a country since announcing its sweeping "reciprocal' tariff plan on April 2. The deal is narrow in scope and is not a comprehensive free trade agreement. It establishes a quota system that will allow around 100,000 British cars to be exported to the United States under a 10% tariff instead
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United States
United Kingdom
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsMay 8, 2025 | 19:25 GMT
Supporters of the PiS party demonstrate April 12 in Warsaw, Poland.
Poland's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Poland will hold a presidential election May 18 and runoff June 1 if no candidate obtains more than 50% in the first round. The outcome will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government will coexist with a cooperative president or continue to face institutional constraints from an ideologically opposed president.
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Poland
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Social Issues
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