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AssessmentsMar 20, 2026 | 20:58 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.
In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks
The Iran war will increase demand for Russian energy, but the resulting revenue gains will likely remain temporary and offset by other costs; still, especially in the case of a protracted conflict in the Middle East, weaker sanctions enforcement and higher oil prices will buoy Moscow's ability to sustain its war in Ukraine for longer. To mitigate energy market shocks caused by the Iran war, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. On March 12, the White House expanded a March 4 waiver, initially limited to India, authorizing a 30-day license for the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto vessels at sea. A week later, on March 19, this relief was expanded to cover petroleum products in addition to crude, allowing the sale of existing tanker cargoes to nearly all countries. The two U.S. sanction waivers,
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportMar 20, 2026 | 16:33 GMT
Japan, U.S.: Trump-Takaichi Summit Deepens Industrial Ties but Highlights Limits to Security Cooperation
U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and pressed her to expand Japan's security role in the Strait of Hormuz, and while Takaichi declined to commit direct military involvement, she left open limited non-combat support, The Asahi Shimbun reported on March 20.
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United States
Iran
Japan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 20, 2026 | 15:08 GMT
People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.
Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot
The Gulf Cooperation Council states will shift their economic strategies to domestic and core regional interests as a result of the Iran war, with a renewed focus on domestic infrastructure, safety nets and strategies for comparative advantage to help them recover some of the attractiveness lost during the war. This is likely to impact international investments, long-term domestic projects and reshape their economic links. GCC member states face varying degrees of economic impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and accompanying Iran war that began Feb. 28. According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, a two-month closure could cause loss of up to 14% GDP for Qatar and Kuwait and 3-5% GDP for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2026. However, such estimates are preliminary and do not fully account for potential future damage to regional infrastructure, the possibility of food and fuel shocks pushing up the costs
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United States
Bahrain
Iran
Israel
Kuwait
Oman
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 19, 2026 | 18:54 GMT
Danish Defense Minister and top candidate of Denmark's Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen (left), and Danish Prime Minister and top candidate of the Social Democrat Party, Mette Frederiksen (right), attend a debate in Copenhagen on March 15, 2026.
Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Denmark will hold parliamentary elections on March 24. The campaign has been shaped by debates over welfare, taxation, migration and the pace of the green transition, as well as tensions surrounding U.S. demands over Greenland. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the election while seeking to capitalize on a partial rebound in support linked in part to her defiant handling of Washington's pressure on Greenland. However, any new government will likely adopt a somewhat more conciliatory tone in an effort to contain tensions, prevent further escalation and reach a compromise if possible. Meanwhile, the governing center-left Social Democrats, center-right Venstre and centrist Moderates remain weakened by years of cross-bloc compromise and voter fatigue. Polling suggests the election is unlikely to produce a clean or ideologically cohesive majority, leaving coalition-building dependent on broad alliances or issue-based support from smaller and potentially opposition parties.
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Greenland
Denmark
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 19, 2026 | 18:22 GMT
A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.
Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are reducing global supplies and increasing costs of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal stress for agricultural producers if the Iran conflict persists for several more weeks. The ongoing disruption to shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war is rattling global fertilizer markets by constraining supply, driving up logistics costs and increasing energy prices. The Gulf region is a critical hub for global fertilizer trade, making any interference highly consequential. Roughly one-third of all internationally traded fertilizers and nearly half of traded urea volumes are either produced in the region or rely on its transit routes. Specifically, the Gulf accounts for around 45% of global urea exports, roughly 30% of ammonia exports and around 25% of phosphate fertilizers. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normally carries around
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