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AssessmentsJun 17, 2026 | 20:22 GMT
Cockroach Janta Party founder Abhijeet Dipke (center) participates in a protest in Amritsar, India, on June 13, 2026.
Can India's Viral 'Cockroach' Party Mobilize a Gen Z Uprising?
In India, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) youth group will face challenges in translating its online popularity into an influential and sustained political movement, but worsening economic grievances may facilitate the movement's growth. Since its formation in mid-May, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) has amassed over 20 million social media followers and is now attempting to convert this growing online presence into street-level youth mobilization. Founder Abhijeet Dipke returned from Boston, the United States, to India on June 6 to organize protests demanding the education minister's resignation over recent scandals involving school entrance exams. The group has since staged protests in New Delhi (June 6), Pune (June 11), Lucknow (June 12), Amritsar (June 13), Hyderabad (June 14) and Jaipur (June 15). However, reported turnout at these events reached only the hundreds to low thousands at most, highlighting the movement's struggle to garner broader political support. In particular, the CJP has
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India
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
Situation ReportJun 8, 2026 | 18:55 GMT
India: Youth Group Draws Hundreds in First Protest, Issues Ultimatum for Education Minister's Resignation
Hundreds of people gathered on June 6 in New Delhi, India, after police authorized the first in-person protest of the "Cockroach Janta Party" online youth group at the Jantar Mantar demonstration site, demanding the education minister resign amid recent scandals linked to school exams, Hindustan Times reported on June 7.
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India
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 8, 2026 | 18:03 GMT
Red Cross volunteers wearing personal protective equipment lower the body of an Ebola victim into a casket at a health center in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of Congo, on June 8, 2026.
Ebola Makes Deadly Comeback in Congo
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will likely persist for at least several more months and result in extended travel restrictions that will disrupt regional supply chains, likely slow deal-making in Congo's mining sector and could delay Uganda's planned start of oil production. On May 17, the World Health Organization, or WHO, declared a public health emergency of international concern following an Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda. Cases have largely been concentrated in eastern Congo, where authorities have identified 515 confirmed cases, including 91 fatalities, and 117 suspected cases as of June 7. Meanwhile, 19 confirmed cases and two deaths have been reported in Uganda as of June 5, all of which are in the capital Kampala and neighboring areas and stem from a contact originating in Congo. Amid mounting cases, Rwanda barred all foreign nationals who have traveled to Congo in the past 30
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
Uganda
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 3, 2026 | 20:41 GMT
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (right) addresses journalists next to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a new round of trade discussions with Chinese officials at the OECD headquarters in Paris on March 16, 2026.
Trump Tries Again To Impose Sweeping Global Tariffs
The sweeping nature of the Trump administration's proposed Section 301 tariffs on 60 U.S. trading partners will likely face additional court challenges, but this will not deter the White House from continuing its broader push to more sustainably implement its global tariff regime. On June 2, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer proposed imposing a 10% or 12.5% tariff on 60 economies after concluding an investigation into their trade practices under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. The investigation determined that these countries failed to impose and/or effectively enforce measures prohibiting the import of goods made with forced labor, which was deemed "unreasonable" and restrictive to U.S. commerce per Section 301. Greer's announcement initiated a public comment and review process, with written comments due by July 6 and a public hearing scheduled for July 7. This means the tariffs could be implemented by mid-Q3 2026. In March, the USTR
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United States
Economics
Politics
Situation ReportMay 27, 2026 | 17:00 GMT
U.S., Kenya, Congo: U.S. Eyes Quarantine Facility in Kenya as Cases Grow, New Vaccine Emerges
The United States is looking to set up a quarantine facility in Kenya for U.S. nationals exposed to Ebola or having tested positive for the virus, a proposal yet to be approved by the Kenyan government, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 26, quoting sources familiar with the matter.
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
Kenya
United States
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
AssessmentsMay 19, 2026 | 14:56 GMT
Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.
The Modern Geopolitics of Israel
Israel is a minor power with middle power characteristics. Its military and economy are backstopped by the United States, enabling Israel, a country of only 10 million people in some 8,500 square miles, to project power throughout the greater Middle East and parts of the globe as though it were a middle power. But as its true geopolitical nature is that of a minor power, it is highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and sustained pressure that can drain the country's political will and economic resources. Moreover, Israel is an incomplete minor power: its core around the holy city of Jerusalem is divided between Israel and the Palestinian territories. To secure itself, Israel will seek a path to an independent middle power status, which can only be achieved by unifying the geographic core permanently, either through slow annexation, violent conquest or risky assimilation.
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United States
Egypt
Iran
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
United Kingdom
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 18, 2026 | 18:22 GMT
EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.
The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks
A European mediator could unblock frozen negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but it is unlikely to produce a durable peace settlement unless both sides first conclude that continued war is strategically and politically more costly than compromise, which is not currently the case. In recent days, both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have indicated their openness to a stronger European role in future peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine. On May 9, Putin told reporters that the conflict was "coming to an end" and mentioned former German chancellor Gerhard Schroder as his preferred European interlocutor for peace talks, a proposal that most European leaders dismissed due to Schroder's close ties to Russia. Then, on May 17, Zelensky said that "we believe that Europe must participate in the negotiation" and urged European leaders to "determine who exactly will represent" the Continent. These statements come as the
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Europe
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsApr 21, 2026 | 18:05 GMT
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud sits in his office as he speaks to journalists at Villa Somalia, the palace and principal workplace of the president, on April 22, 2025, in central Mogadishu, Somalia.
Somalia Descends Into Another Constitutional Crisis
Somalia will likely face a constitutional crisis due to disagreements surrounding the length of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term, which will increase the likelihood of Mogadishu launching a military intervention in Jubaland and likely create a new flashpoint for power competition in the broader Red Sea region. On April 14, Somalia's federal government informed foreign diplomats that the term of the country's parliament and President Mohamud had been extended by one year in line with recent constitutional reform. This came as former Somali presidents Sheikh Sharif Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo -- both of whom are politically active -- said on the same day that the term of Somalia's parliament had ended on April 14 and that Mohamud's term would end on May 15. Echoing this position was the opposition Somali Future Council coalition, or SFC, which regroups the state governments of Puntland and Jubaland. Despite this, Mohamud and his
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Somalia
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportApr 15, 2026 | 20:48 GMT
Somalia: Dispute Over Duration of Presidential, Parliamentary Terms Portends Constitutional Crisis
Somali opposition figures, including the Somali Future Council coalition, or SFC, and former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, said the term of Somalia's parliament had expired, and both the SFC and Farmajo stressed that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term would expire on May 15, Somalia Today reported on April 15.
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Somalia
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsApr 7, 2026 | 19:42 GMT
The Geopolitics of Demographics
Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences
Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
The Geopolitics of Demographics
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsApr 1, 2026 | 18:09 GMT
Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025.
The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire
The effort by Taiwan's opposition leader to revive talks with China will likely produce modest economic benefits, hurt the party's electoral prospects and not significantly alter U.S. policy on Taiwan, though talks could also paradoxically increase the chance of military conflict in the coming years. China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) announced on March 30 that the chairwoman of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, Cheng Li-wun, would visit China from April 7-12 at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. TAO Chair Song Tao said the visit will involve stops in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing. That same day, Cheng held a press conference on the matter, accepting the invitation and pledging to uphold the KMT's policy of "adhering to the 1992 Consensus and opposing Taiwan independence," saying these policies would help avoid war. She also spoke of the efforts of current KMT elder and former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou from
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China
Taiwan
Military & Security
Politics
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