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Situation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 18:56 GMT
Cameroon: Second Ally of Long-Term President Announces Presidential Bid
Cameroon's long-serving Tourism Minister and former Prime Minister Bello Bouba Maigari, president of the National Union for Democracy and Progress, entered the country's 2025 presidential race without resigning from his Cabinet position, becoming the second senior northern ally of President Paul Biya to do so in recent days, Reuters reported on June 30.
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Cameroon
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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SnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
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Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Economics
Global Trade
Situation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
China: Removal of Commanders, Nuclear Scientist Signals Deepening Military Purge
China removed Gen. Miao Hua from the Central Military Commission and expelled Navy Chief of Staff Vice Adm. Li Hanjun and nuclear scientist Liu Shipeng from the National People's Congress, marking a sharp escalation in Chinese President Xi Jinping's military purge, the South China Morning Post reported on June 27.
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China
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025.
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
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India
Pakistan
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair.
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
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United States
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day.
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
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China
New Zealand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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