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AssessmentsOct 21, 2025 | 21:43 GMT
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump speak to reporters during a bilateral meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on Oct. 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
U.S.-Australia Leadership Summit Yields Critical Minerals Pact, AUKUS Reaffirmation
The United States and Australia's new critical minerals pact and Trump's endorsement of AUKUS reflect a mutual desire to tighten defense and supply chain integration as a way to reduce strategic reliance on China, though these political commitments are unlikely to yield tangible results before the end of the decade due to industrial bottlenecks. On Oct. 20, U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met at the White House for a bilateral summit that delivered two principal outcomes: a critical minerals deal (dubbed the U.S.-Australia Framework for Securing Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths) and a public reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to the AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership. The critical minerals framework commits both governments to jointly mobilize financing through their respective export-credit and development agencies to support priority mining, refining and processing projects. The U.S. Export-Import Bank, the U.S. International Development
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United States
Australia
China
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 21, 2025 | 21:08 GMT
Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.
New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems
Japan's new prime minister will shore up short-term political stability, but her minority government will oversee slow policymaking and poor electoral prospects, while her administration will strengthen Japan's ties with the United States but risk a deterioration of relations with China and South Korea. After days of uncertainty regarding the formation of a government, Japan's Diet selected ruling Liberal Democratic Party President and conservative firebrand Sanae Takaichi as prime minister on Oct. 21. Takaichi took office immediately, replacing her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba. Her new Cabinet, which will lead a minority government, includes conservative competitor Toshimitsu Motegi as foreign minister, rival reformers Shinjiro Koizumi as defense minister and Yoshimasa Hayashi as internal affairs minister, Ishiba's U.S. trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa as industry minister and former defense minister Minoru Kihara as chief Cabinet secretary. She also chose as education minister Yohei Matsumoto, who controversially supported a 2007 Japanese movie that denied Imperial
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United States
China
Japan
South Korea
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 20, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) attends a lunch meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump (R) at the White House on Oct. 17, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
Trump Signals Shift Toward Russian Position on Ukraine Ahead of Putin Meeting
U.S. President Donald Trump's recent statements indicate a shift toward pressuring Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia, signaling a potential U.S.-backed deal on terms largely favorable to Moscow and heightening uncertainty about future American support for Kyiv. Trump stated on Oct. 19 that the war in Ukraine should be frozen along the current front lines. This statement followed media reports about a tense Oct. 17 White House meeting at which Trump is said to have urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cede Ukrainian-controlled territories in the Donbas region to end the conflict. Just hours earlier, Trump had spoken with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, by phone and announced a bilateral summit in Budapest, Hungary, "within the next two weeks." Trump also indicated that high-ranking delegations, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, would meet in the coming days (though no specific date or
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsOct 16, 2025 | 18:29 GMT
An Israeli military truck carries a tank in southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip, on Oct. 14, 2025.
The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire
The ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war will temporarily ease regional diplomatic tensions and free Israeli military resources for other fronts, but a collapse in the coming phases would almost certainly reignite conflict with Hamas, cause diplomatic friction with regional powers and risk a wider escalation involving Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran. On Oct. 15, Israel and Hamas entered negotiations over the second phase of the U.S.-backed 20-point Gaza peace plan that they reached on Oct. 8 as tensions flared over Israel's accusations that Hamas was not complying with the first phase by not releasing enough bodies of Israeli hostages. On Oct. 15, Israel announced that while three bodies handed over by Hamas the previous day were those of Israeli hostages, a fourth body was not. Meanwhile, mediators began discussing the deployment of an initial 1,000-strong Palestinian police force, trained by Egypt and Jordan, to help manage security in Gaza under
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Egypt
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
SnapshotsOct 14, 2025 | 15:43 GMT
Supporters of Bolivia's presidential candidate for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), Rodrigo Paz, listen to him speak during a campaign rally in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sept. 30, 2025.
Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote
With Bolivia's presidential runoff on Oct. 19 pitting two right-wingers against each other, austerity measures and a foreign policy realignment toward the West are certain, but persisting risks of unrest and a potential future rollback of pro-business measures could extend current high debt and challenges to the country's investment attractiveness. Bolivia will hold its first-ever presidential runoff election on Oct. 19. Right-wing former President Jorge Quiroga of the Freedom and Democracy Alliance (Libre) will face off against center-right Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC). The vote follows general elections on Aug. 17, in which Bolivia's ruling left-wing Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party lost control of the legislative branch and was eliminated from the presidential race. In the first round of the presidential election, Paz received 31% of the vote and Quiroga 26.7%. Pre-election polling for the runoff has indicated that Quiroga is leading. Unitel reported in
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Bolivia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 13, 2025 | 15:36 GMT
Russian flag on a cracked wall, illustrating an economic decline with a downward arrow.
Russia's War Economy Is Faltering
The Russian economy is entering a multi-year stagnation that, while enabling the Kremlin to sustain the war effort over the next 12 months, will steadily erode the fiscal, industrial and technological foundations required to keep fighting at current intensity beyond 2026. On Oct. 7, the World Bank released its ''Fall 2025 Economic Update,'' which projects that Russian real GDP growth will decline from 4.3% in 2024 to 0.9% this year, 0.8% in 2026 and just 1% in 2027. The report describes a war-distorted economy in which tight monetary policy, shrinking private credit and labor shortages have stalled civilian production and only defense orders keep output artificially afloat. The Russian economy's non-defense activity has contracted, consumption has slowed and investment has fallen under high borrowing costs. With military spending at a record high and a drop of 17% in oil revenues, the federal budget deficit grew to 1.7% of GDP in
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Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsOct 9, 2025 | 15:12 GMT
A visualization of bitcoin
Privately Issued Cryptocurrencies Will Not Replace Fiat Currency
Government incentives and financial stability concerns mean cryptocurrencies are not going to replace fiat currencies in the vast majority of countries despite their growing popularity, even if stablecoins will create greater competition for traditional currencies in countries characterized by monetary instability. Privately issued cryptocurrencies, and especially stablecoins, have been gaining traction. Stablecoins, in particular, are increasingly used for settling trades in decentralized finance, crypto exchanges and tokenized asset markets as well as for cross-border payments. Bitcoins have gained in prominence as an investment rather than as money. Bitcoin's total market capitalization stands at some $2.5 trillion and the total amount of all stablecoins outstanding is $300 billion. By comparison, total U.S. commercial bank deposits stand at $18.4 trillion.
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Economics
SnapshotsOct 9, 2025 | 14:07 GMT
People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.
After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?
An initial deal between Hamas and Israel to wind down the war in Gaza will decrease violence in the short term as both sides are likely to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, but over time talks on Gaza's future are likely to stall because of disagreements over more contentious topics, likely leading to a low-intensity conflict and potentially return to full-scale war. On Oct. 8, Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement in the Egyptian city of Sharm el Sheikh. The deal calls for a temporary halt to hostilities (with a partial ceasefire being announced early on Oct. 9), a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces to a defined line in the Gaza Strip and a hostage-prisoner exchange. In this opening phase, which is expected to occur in the coming days, Hamas will release the roughly 20 remaining Israeli hostages believed to
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United States
Egypt
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Turkey
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsOct 8, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories.
A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation
For the 77 years since the State of Israel's founding, the question of Palestine's future has fueled many, if not most, major conflicts in the Middle East. Those who argue it should be a single state have traditionally also advocated for the destruction of Israel along the way, spurring the great Israeli-Arab wars of the past, and the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault in 2023. Proponents of a single Palestinian state have traditionally also advocated for Israel's destruction, spurring the great Israeli-Arab wars of the past, and the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault in 2023. Conversely, those pushing for a two-state solution, while seemingly offering a path to compromise and peace, have failed to find a path to defuse the revanchism of far-right Palestinians and the expansionist aims of far-right Israelis. This has inadvertently given ground to these very same one-state advocates, who prefer to use war to achieve their aims. But
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 6, 2025 | 18:06 GMT
Outgoing French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu arrives to deliver a statement at the Hotel Matignon in Paris after submitting his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron on Oct. 6, 2025.
French Political Crisis Deepens as Another Prime Minister Resigns
In France, the surprising resignation of the recently installed prime minister will plunge the country deeper into political paralysis, leaving President Emmanuel Macron with difficult options that are likely to prolong the gridlock, further unsettle financial markets and/or exacerbate social unrest. French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned on Oct. 6, less than 13 hours after unveiling his new cabinet, marking the shortest tenure for a prime minister in France's Fifth Republic and the third to resign in under a year. Lecornu, who took office on Sept. 9, had spent weeks negotiating with political parties to form a viable government and explore ways to approve a budget for next year ahead of his general policy address to the National Assembly scheduled for Oct. 7. However, the cabinet announced on the evening of Oct. 5 drew immediate backlash from across the political spectrum, including opposition parties on both the left and right,
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France
Economics
Politics
On GeopoliticsOct 2, 2025 | 18:48 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025.
'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change
Israel's Sept. 9 airstrike on Qatar targeting Hamas leaders has exposed new fissures in Israeli-American relations. In the wake of the attack, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was "very unhappy" about the strike and reportedly reassured Qatar, a major non-NATO ally, that it would not be subject to an open-ended air campaign conducted by a fellow U.S. ally, though he resisted meaningfully sanctioning Israel in response.
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsSep 30, 2025 | 20:16 GMT
The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025.
U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?
Iran's initial response to the snapback of U.N. sanctions will likely be pragmatic, but over time, the economic fallout from the sanctions could prompt Tehran to double down on its relationships with Russia and China, fuel social unrest within Iran, and strengthen the political influence of Iranian hard-liners who are calling for more aggressive action against the West. Wide-ranging U.N. sanctions against Iran were formally reimposed on Sept. 28. This action followed months of unsuccessful negotiations between Iran and the West, and also came after a last-ditch effort by China and Russia to delay the sanctions was defeated in a U.N. Security Council vote two days prior, with the United States and European powers opposing the delay. The reimposition of U.N. sanctions was widely anticipated after Europe's so-called E3 countries -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- triggered the sanctions snapback provision in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally
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United States
Iran
China
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
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