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AssessmentsJan 6, 2026 | 20:41 GMT
Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World
The growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will likely increasingly strain bilateral relations, raising the risk of escalations and conflicts -- both directly and through their proxies -- in places like Yemen, Sudan and Syria, as well as disruptions within the Gulf Cooperation Council. Geopolitical competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has increased in recent weeks, evident in their diverging strategies across several regional flashpoints and their direct economic rivalry. In Yemen, tensions have sharply escalated after Saudi-backed government troops on Jan. 2 launched an offensive in Hadramaut province to recapture territory from the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), highlighting the continued divergence of Saudi and Emirati strategic imperatives in the country. Similarly, in Sudan, the two Gulf states are backing rival factions in that country's ongoing civil war. And in Syria, while both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi support the new provisional
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Sudan
Saudi Arabia
Syria
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
Situation ReportJan 6, 2026 | 19:56 GMT
U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure
U.S. government officials have outlined to Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez that Washington's main priorities for Caracas are fighting drug trafficking, removing from the country operatives from Iran, Cuba and other nations hostile to the United States, and halting the shipment of oil to U.S. adversaries, Politico reported on Jan. 5.
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 6, 2026 | 15:46 GMT
The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.
How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?
In 2026, U.S. pressure on Greenland could range from expanded military deployments and economic and political coercion to unilateral intervention, which would aim to strengthen Washington's Arctic presence while eroding Danish authority and would prompt calibrated Russian, Chinese and European responses. During the 2024 presidential campaign and since his return to the White House in January 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in Greenland, often describing the territory as key for American national security. Throughout 2025, Trump repeatedly asserted that "ownership" and "control" of the island were an absolute necessity to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic, even refusing to rule out the use of military or economic coercion to achieve this goal. This stance has triggered significant tensions with Denmark and Greenland, with both governments repeatedly saying that the territory is not for sale. U.S. pressure peaked in late December 2025 with the appointment
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United States
Greenland
China
Europe
Denmark
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 22:09 GMT
Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.
Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios
Following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela will remain highly volatile and exposed to internal violence and further U.S. attacks. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez will most likely adopt a pragmatic, cooperative stance toward Washington to ensure regime survival, but alternative scenarios include her opting for a defiant stance vis-a-vis Washington, a hard-line coup, an internal civil conflict and a highly unlikely transition to democracy.
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Brazil
Colombia
Guyana
United States
Venezuela
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 18:00 GMT
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Cyber
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Social Issues
Situation ReportJan 5, 2026 | 16:50 GMT
Indonesia: Government Land Seizures Top 4 Million Hectares
Since March 2025, the Indonesian government under President Prabowo Subianto has seized more than 4 million hectares of palm oil plantations, mining concessions and processing facilities nationwide, transferring much of the land to state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara under a military-led task force, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5.
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Indonesia
Economics
Annual ForecastsJan 5, 2026 | 00:00 GMT
2026 Annual Forecast
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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SnapshotsJan 3, 2026 | 13:44 GMT
Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.
U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region
The United States' claimed capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro creates a leadership vacuum that risks leading to potentially violent instability and unrest in the coming weeks, while also keeping future U.S. strikes on Venezuela and other countries in the region on the table. On Jan. 3, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in an early morning social media post that the United States had captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flown them out of the country. Trump said the operation occurred with U.S. law enforcement and took place alongside U.S. military operations against Venezuela. The Venezuelan government said attacks had occurred in the capital, Caracas, as well as the surrounding states of Aragua, Miranda and La Guaira. The Venezuelan government also declared a state of emergency and called for popular armed mobilization to resist U.S. forces. President Trump announced a press conference at 11:00 a.m. EST to discuss
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026 | 20:15 GMT
A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe.
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast
At a time when forecasts are plentiful and certainty is often overstated, we strongly believe that publishing a transparent record of our accuracy is essential. This annual scorecard is a candid internal assessment of what we forecast accurately, where we missed the mark and where events unfolded in ways that challenged our underlying assumptions. This exercise is not performative. While we will celebrate our successes and further critique our missteps, the goal of this assessment is to sharpen our analytic discipline and inform the forecast for the year ahead.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Global Trade
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportDec 31, 2025 | 17:40 GMT
Congo: M23-Linked Administration Emerges in Uvira After Rebels Withdraw Bulk of Forces
The Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group said it had overseen the deployment of interim civilian security and administration officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's eastern city of Uvira to take charge of security and administration until the deployment of a neutral force to the city, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 30.
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
Rwanda
United States
Military & Security
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