AssessmentsApr 18, 2025 | 20:11 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
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Situation ReportApr 11, 2025 | 16:03 GMT
Israel, Qatar: Military Cooperation Signals Improved Relations, but Normalization Remains Unlikely
In drills that ended on April 11, the Israeli air force confirmed that it flew alongside Qatar's air force for the first time at the annual Iniochos exercise held in Greece, The Times of Israel reported the same day.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 8, 2025 | 17:06 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Security Threats in the Strait of Hormuz and Likely Strategies
Rising tensions between Israel, the United States and Iran are increasing the likelihood of strikes on Iranian territory that could trigger an Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a development that would increase oil prices, generate trade disruptions and, over time, could incentivize Gulf states to find alternative oil export routes. For years, the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and measuring approximately 35 to 60 miles (55 to 95 kilometers) in width -- has remained a key geopolitical flashpoint between the United States and Iran, owing to its strategic importance for global trade and energy transit. At least 30% of the world's sea-traded crude oil passes through the strait daily. Given its importance for global oil markets, in the past decades, Iran has repeatedly threatened to blockade the strait as part of its broader rivalry with the
READ MORESituation ReportApr 7, 2025 | 17:35 GMT
Iraq: Iranian-Backed Militias Reportedly Discussing Disarmament
Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, Nujabaa, Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada and Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa, are reportedly in advanced discussions to disarm, Reuters reported April 7, citing senior commanders and Iraqi officials.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 4, 2025 | 15:35 GMT
Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs
Turkey's Trade Minister Omer Bolat said that Turkey would try to negotiate the 10% tariffs imposed on the country with the U.S. Department of Commerce and Trade and would attend the Turkish-American Conference in D.C. in May, Reuters reported April 4.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2025 | 19:08 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Expands Ground Operations
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that Israel had significantly expanded its ground operations in the Gaza Strip to "capture extensive territory that will be added to the State of Israel’s security areas," CNN reported on April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2025 | 15:52 GMT
U.S., Iran: Trump Administration Weighs Iran's Offer of Indirect Nuclear Talks
The United States is "seriously" considering Iran's proposal for indirect nuclear talks through Omani intermediaries, Axios reported on April 2, citing two U.S. officials.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 2, 2025 | 15:49 GMT
Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy
Egypt's reliance on foreign aid and its efforts to strengthen economic ties, especially with the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, will limit its foreign policy and ability to project influence in the region, likely leading Egypt to take a more mediating and peacekeeping role in regional conflicts. In recent months, Egypt has elevated its diplomatic engagement in conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. In mid-January, Egypt hosted technical discussions with a Somali delegation about contributing peacekeepers to a multilateral force countering jihadists in the Horn of Africa; weeks later, the Somali Ministry of Defense said it completed these technical discussions and "looks forward to [Egypt's] contribution alongside other troop-partner nations." The same month, Egyptian and Qatari negotiators brokered the phased Hamas-Israel ceasefire that took effect on Jan. 19. Egypt also established a command center in Cairo to implement the agreement, which largely held until widespread Israeli attacks on the
READ MORESituation ReportMar 27, 2025 | 16:07 GMT
U.S., Qatar: U.S. Starts Approval Process for MQ-9B Drone Sale to Qatar
The U.S. State Department approved an initial sale of eight MQ-9B Predator drones to Qatar for $2 billion, AP reported on March 27.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 26, 2025 | 17:01 GMT
Syria, U.S.: U.S. Provides Conditions for Partial Syrian Sanctions Relief
The United States reportedly provided the new Syrian government with a list of conditions to fulfill in exchange for some U.S. sanctions relief and increased recognition of the new regime, including a U.S. statement on Syria's territorial integrity and a two-year extension for an existing sanctions exemption that allows transactions with the Syrian government, Reuters reported on March 25.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 24, 2025 | 16:20 GMT
Congo: Angola Relinquishes Role as Conflict Mediator, AFC/M23 Remains in Walikale
Angola's presidency said it would relinquish the country's role as the chief mediator in the conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda and the Alliance for the Congo River, a coalition led by the Rwandan-backed M23, Reuters reported on March 24.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 20, 2025 | 19:10 GMT
Congo: AFC/M23 Edges Closer to Central Congo Despite Ceasefire Announcement
The Alliance for the Congo River, or AFC, a politico-military alliance led by the Rwandan-backed M23, captured the town of Walikale in the western part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's eastern North Kivu province, Reuters reported on March 20.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 19, 2025 | 19:30 GMT
Rwanda, Congo: Presidential Meeting in Qatar Bodes Well for Peace Talks
The presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda met in Doha, Qatar, for the first time since the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group captured Congo's eastern cities of Goma and Bukavu earlier this year, a statement by Qatar’s foreign ministry read on March 18.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 18, 2025 | 15:32 GMT
U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry
The U.S. military campaign against the Houthis will likely expand to additional locations in Yemen. But should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 13, 2025 | 16:12 GMT
Syria: Qatar To Start Gas Transfers as Israel Supplies Druze With Food, Interim President Signs Constitution
Qatar will supply gas to Syria's southern Deir Ali power plant via the Arab Gas Pipeline with U.S. approval, according to a U.S. official, Reuters reported on March 13.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 10, 2025 | 15:20 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Cuts Electricity to Gaza
Israel's energy minister, Eli Cohen, announced that the Israeli government would cut off electricity supplies to Gaza in an effort to pressure Hamas to extend the ceasefire deal and release more Israeli hostages, AP reported March 9.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 20, 2025 | 18:20 GMT
Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant
Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq will partially counterbalance the shifting regional influence of Turkey, Qatar and Iran. However, sectarian politics and the meddling of foreign powers will limit Saudi gains, making Riyadh more aggressive in the long term, particularly in Syria and Lebanon. On Feb. 2, Syria's transitional President Ahmad al-Sharaa traveled to Riyadh for his first diplomatic trip abroad, meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and discussing economic, humanitarian and diplomatic cooperation. The visit came after Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arrived in Damascus on Jan. 24. Prince Faisal also visited Lebanon on Jan. 23, making him the first top Saudi diplomat to travel to Lebanon in 15 years. The minister reportedly conveyed Saudi Arabia's support for the Lebanese people and state while urging political reforms to unlock foreign aid and investments. Finally, Saudi Arabia and Iraq on Nov. 4 signed a memorandum
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 19, 2025 | 21:14 GMT
India, Qatar: Qatar Pledges to Invest $10B in India
Following Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani's Feb. 17-18 visit to India, the two countries released a joint statement in which Qatar pledged to invest $10 billion across a range of Indian sectors, including infrastructure, technology and manufacturing, Reuters reported on Feb. 18.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 15, 2025 | 15:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 11, 2025 | 21:48 GMT
Germany's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Germany's general election will take place on Feb. 23. A two-party coalition could provide a more stable government with streamlined decision-making in Berlin, while a three-party coalition may lead to instability, prolonging policy uncertainty both domestically and within the European Union.
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