AssessmentsOct 24, 2025 | 20:23 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
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Situation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 19:33 GMT
Pakistan: Government Proscribes Hardline Islamist Party Under Anti-Terrorism Act
Pakistan's government proscribed hardline Islamist party Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, or TLP, under the country's Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997, weeks after the party's members clashed with police during pro-Palestinian protests in Punjab province that killed five people and injured dozens of others, Dawn reported on Oct. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 19:31 GMT
South Korea, U.S.: Dispute Over Investments Impeding Trade Deal
The South Korean and U.S. trade teams are divided over how much money South Korea should invest annually in the United States to fulfill the former's $350 billion investment pledge, with the United States demanding $25 billion per year and South Korea claiming it could only invest $15 billion-$20 billion annually without a currency swap deal, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 19:10 GMT
Japan: Takaichi To Accelerate Defense, Household Spending
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave her first policy speech to the Diet, in which she pledged to raise defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product by March 2026, two years ahead of schedule, Jiji Press reported on Oct. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 19:07 GMT
U.S., China: U.S. Probe Portends New Tariffs Over Phase 1 Noncompliance
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that the United States was launching a Section 301 trade investigation into whether China complied with Phase 1 of the 2020 U.S.-China trade deal, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 19:05 GMT
Kazakhstan: Tokayev Pushes 'Strong Presidency' Reform Amid Crackdown
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used his Republic Day address to reiterate plans for sweeping constitutional reforms that would create a unicameral, party-list parliament and reaffirm Kazakhstan's "strong presidential" system, KazTAG reported on Oct. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 18:22 GMT
Sudan: Several Outlets Report Start of Indirect SAF-RSF Talks, SAF Denies
The United States is hosting indirect talks between the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, in Washington with the goal of establishing a humanitarian truce between the two sides and returning to the Jeddah peace negotiating framework, Sudan Tribune reported on Oct. 23 based on talks with several sources.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 18:18 GMT
Ethiopia: Anti-Eritrean Government Rebels Announce Graduation of New Fighters in Ethiopia
The Ethiopia-based and anti-Eritrean government Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization, or RSDAO, announced the graduation of new fighters after three months of military training, Addis Standard reported on Oct. 23.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 18:16 GMT
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mozambique Removed From FATF 'Grey List'
The Financial Action Task Force, or FATF, removed South Africa from its anti-money laundering and terrorism financing "grey list" after assessing that it had met all the necessary actions proposed in a 2023 plan, News24 reported on Oct. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 16:52 GMT
EU: Belgian Objections Delay EU Decision on Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Loan
EU leaders failed to agree on a 140 billion euro ($162 billion) loan to Ukraine backed by roughly 190 billion euros in frozen Russian state assets during a summit in Brussels, following Belgian objections, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 16:40 GMT
Turkey: Turkish Court Throws Out Case To Oust Opposition Leader
A Turkish court threw out a contentious court case that alleged there were procedural irregularities during the 2023 party congress of the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, or CHP, during which the party's leader Ozgur Ozel was elected, Reuters reported on Oct. 24.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 24, 2025 | 16:19 GMT
Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks
Turkey will likely initially use diplomatic and political pressure to weaken Northern Cyprus's attempts to restart what are likely to be difficult federalization talks with the Republic of Cyprus. Should they nonetheless advance, an escalation to economic pressure could instead strengthen Northern Cyprus's drive for federalization in the coming years. On Oct. 19, the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus held a presidential election that resulted in the victory of Republican Turkish Party (CTP) head Tufan Erhurman, a center-left candidate who supports resuming federalization talks with the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus after a prolonged suspension of negotiations. Erhurman secured 62% of the vote, achieving a decisive victory over incumbent Ersin Tartar of the National Unity Party (UBP), who had rejected federalization talks and advocated for a two-state solution to the decades-long division of the island between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Two days after the vote, Devlet Bahceli, a Nationalist
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 24, 2025 | 15:31 GMT
What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics
The death of former Kenyan Prime Minister and opposition leader Raila Odinga risks fragmenting his political party, creating space for other opposition figures to challenge the incumbent president. Odinga, widely known as the "people's president" despite never serving in the role, died on Oct. 15 after reportedly suffering a stroke while receiving medical treatment in India. The 80-year-old, a central figure in Kenyan politics for decades, was granted a state funeral and seven days of national mourning. However, his death quickly sparked unrest across the country from the capital, Nairobi to his home region of Western Kenya. In the intervening days four people were killed when security forces used live fire to disperse crowds at the Kasarani stadium where Odinga's body was to be publicly viewed. On Oct. 16, Odinga's supporters also stormed airport grounds, breaching security and forcing authorities to temporarily halt operations. Some mourners denounced President William Ruto,
READ MORESituation ReportOct 24, 2025 | 14:44 GMT
U.S., Canada: Trump Cancels Trade Talks With Canada Due to Anti-Tariff Ad
U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Truth Social post late on Oct. 23 that he was ending all trade talks with Canada due to a video ad paid for by the province of Ontario and running in U.S. markets featuring former U.S. President Ronald Reagan criticising tariffs.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 23, 2025 | 20:33 GMT
U.S., EU, Russia: New Energy Sanctions Tighten Pressure on Moscow but Highlight the Limits of Economic Warfare
The United States and the European Union imposed sweeping new sanctions on Russia's energy sector, targeting its two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and banning Russian liquefied natural gas imports to Europe by 2027, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 23, 2025 | 20:27 GMT
U.S., Latin America: U.S. Military Strikes Against Drug Traffickers Expand to Pacific Ocean
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the U.S. military struck two alleged drug vessels in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Oct. 21 and 22, killing several alleged drug smugglers, Reuters reported on Oct. 22.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 23, 2025 | 20:06 GMT
China: Party Frames Purged Military Generals as Challengers of Top Leaders
At China's fourth plenum from Oct. 20-23, Beijing appointed Central Military Commission (CMC) member Zhang Shengmin as the new CMC vice chair, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 23.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 23, 2025 | 19:55 GMT
Haiti: Government Confirms Elections Will Not Occur Before February Deadline
Haitian electoral council president Jacques Desrosiers said on Oct. 22 that Haiti will not be able to hold a general election before the end of the transitional presidential council's mandate on Feb. 7, 2026, Reuters reported the same day.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 23, 2025 | 19:34 GMT
China: Plenum Charts Steady Economic Plan, Trade Deterrence, Internal Security
A communique summarizing the proceedings of China's Oct. 20-23 fourth plenum pledged to "seek progress while maintaining stability," expand domestic demand, stabilize employment and uphold manufacturing as the foundational "real economy."
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 19:28 GMT
Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Deep political fragmentation will likely complicate coalition building following the Dutch election on Oct. 29, forcing broad and ideologically unstable alliances and triggering a complex negotiation process that could leave the country without a cabinet for months.
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