AssessmentsMar 13, 2026 | 20:04 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORE
For more targeted results combine or exclude search terms by applying the Boolean Operators AND, OR and AND NOT. Place quotations around your search term to find documents that contain that exact phrase
Search Tools
AssessmentsMar 10, 2026 | 15:54 GMT
A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles
While the European Union will make incremental progress on a capital markets union (CMU) in the coming years, a fully unified market remains unlikely in the short to medium term, which will limit immediate reductions in financing costs and strategic autonomy but will gradually improve access to capital, market efficiency and resilience for European businesses over time. In recent months, efforts by the European Union to advance its long-standing CMU project have gained renewed urgency amid rising geopolitical risk, weak economic growth and mounting pressure to improve financing conditions for European businesses. Most recently, in a Feb. 19 interview with The Wall Street Journal, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated the need to establish a CMU to lower financing costs for European companies and increase European competitiveness. The CMU seeks to create a single, integrated capital market across all EU member states by harmonizing rules and legislation to facilitate
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 9, 2026 | 20:39 GMT
U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism
Joint U.S.-Ecuador military operations meet strategic goals for both governments, despite the risk of political backlash in Ecuador, and they further demonstrate the Trump administration's intent to expand U.S. security operations to other Latin American countries as Washington's regional interventionism grows.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 6, 2026 | 13:57 GMT
Evaluating the Spillover Risks of the Iran War for Egypt and Turkey
Though Iran is less likely to target Egypt and Turkey as part of its retaliation than other regional countries, cuts to energy exports risk forcing Cairo and Ankara to rely on more expensive imports of liquefied natural gas.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 5, 2026 | 18:06 GMT
Prolonged Conflict in Iran Would Elevate Security, Migration Threats Against Europe
A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would increase Europe's exposure to security risks, including potential attacks on European-linked assets, renewed migration pressures and an elevated terrorism threat, particularly if European capitals assume a more active military or diplomatic role against the Iranian regime.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsMar 3, 2026 | 18:38 GMT
Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk
Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 3, 2026 | 17:44 GMT
Political Stalemates in Iraq and Lebanon Deepen Amid Regional Instability
The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran will likely further delay government formation in Iraq and lead to the postponement of elections in Lebanon, prolonging both countries' political stalemates.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 2, 2026 | 13:58 GMT
European Economic Growth Likely To Suffer From Impact of U.S. and Israel-Iran War
The ongoing U.S. and Israel-Iran war will primarily impact Europe through energy market volatility, with outcomes ranging from a manageable price shock and modest growth slowdown to a severe energy-driven economic downturn, depending on the duration of the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Since Feb. 28, the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel has evolved into an active regional conflict. The U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military and strategic infrastructure and senior leadership have prompted Tehran to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel, U.S. assets in the region and Gulf states, as well as attacks on shipping across the Persian Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz (through which approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption and liquefied natural gas trade transits) has emerged as the central pressure point, with Iran warning vessels against entering the corridor and maritime operators such as Maersk suspending routes. Oil markets reacted immediately: Brent
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 28, 2026 | 12:06 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: The Conflict in the Middle East, Merz meets Trump
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 21:43 GMT
China: Military Purge Expands, Deepening Command Uncertainty
The Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress removed nine serving officers from their positions as delegates to the National People's Congress, including Ground Force Commander Li Qiaoming and Information Support Force Political Commissar Li Wei, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 26.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 26, 2026 | 20:28 GMT
Will Lebanon's Draft Banking Law Unlock an IMF Deal?
The Lebanese government's contentious banking reform proposal will face obstacles in parliament and, even if adopted, Beirut will need to balance repayment with debt sustainability, but successful implementation would mark progress toward an IMF program and likely boost short-term economic growth. Nearly two weeks have passed since a delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed a Feb. 10-13 visit to Beirut to discuss Lebanon's recent efforts to restructure its banking sector after the Lebanese Cabinet advanced the draft Financial Stabilization and Depositor Recovery law, or "gap law", for consideration by parliament. The bill's main provision is to repay Lebanese depositors up to $100,000 in cash over a four-year period and, over time, restore depositor confidence in the Lebanese banking system. Small depositors -- those with deposits under $100,000 -- comprise around 85% of all Lebanese accounts, and the total cost of repaying them is estimated to be around $20
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 17:29 GMT
Italy: Ruling Coalition Agrees on Electoral Reform Introducing Proportional System With Majority Bonus
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's governing coalition reached an agreement to reform the country's electoral law, introducing a proportional system with a majority bonus of 70 seats in the lower house and 35 in the upper house for coalitions surpassing 40% of the vote, Italian press agency ANSA reported Feb. 26.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 25, 2026 | 15:58 GMT
Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Goes Global
Political disputes between Taiwan's president and its legislature are unlikely to ease anytime soon, which could disrupt trade and arms deals with the United States and/or jeopardize future opportunities for diplomatic engagement with China. On Feb. 12, Taiwanese President William Lai announced that the United States and Taiwan had signed a trade deal to reduce U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese imports to 15%, in line with those of industrial competitors Japan and South Korea. In exchange, Taipei agreed to facilitate purchases of $84 billion in U.S. energy and aerospace products and industrial equipment. In response to the deal, Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party expressed "grave concerns" and demanded clarification from Lai. Fellow opposition Taiwan People's Party (TPP) also stated its disapproval of what it called an "uneven" deal. The KMT and TPP together hold a majority in Taiwan's unicameral legislature, so their support is crucial for the deal's ratification. The
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 24, 2026 | 15:56 GMT
U.S.: Trump Administration Considers New National Security Tariff Investigations
The U.S. Trump administration is preparing to launch a number of new Section 232 investigations as part of its attempts to replace struck-down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 23.
READ MORESnapshotsFeb 20, 2026 | 22:54 GMT
What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners
The Trump administration will use other authorities to replace many of the tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, which means many countries will still seek to engage with the White House on trade matters, though the ruling could slow plans to implement signed trade deals. The U.S. Supreme Court delivered a major blow to President Donald Trump's trade policy on Feb. 20, striking down the majority of his global tariffs. The decision upheld rulings from two lower courts that found Trump exceeded his authority when using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the levies. Upon hearing the news during a meeting with state governors, Trump reportedly called the ruling a "disgrace," but said he had a backup plan for imposing new tariffs. During a press conference after the announcement, Trump announced his intention to sign executive orders later in the day that would invoke Section
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 19, 2026 | 17:13 GMT
Poland: Ruling Coalition Party Poland 2050 Splits but Leaves Tusk's Majority Intact
Fifteen of 31 lawmakers under the Poland 2050 party, a centrist member of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's ruling coalition, announced that they were breaking away following a contentious party leadership contest concluded on Jan. 31, citing dissatisfaction with newly elected leader and EU funds minister Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Notes From Poland reported on Feb. 18.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsFeb 19, 2026 | 17:04 GMT
The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy
In recent weeks, a concept once confined to academic defense seminars has entered mainstream European politics: a "European nuclear umbrella." Both German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned the idea during their speeches at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 13, while officials from countries including Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Belgium have also recently expressed support for it. The term "nuclear umbrella" sounds dramatic -- almost Cold War in tone -- but the idea itself is less about building new weapons than about redefining who guarantees Europe's security in an era of strategic uncertainty. The discussion is primarily driven by doubt about whether the transatlantic security model that has protected Europe for nearly eight decades will function in the same way in the decades ahead.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 18, 2026 | 20:18 GMT
Japan, U.S.: Initial Three Investments an Early Sign of Trade Deal Stability
U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Feb. 17 Truth Social post Japan's first three investments under their July 2025 trade deal, including a gas power plant in Ohio, a crude oil export facility in Texas and a critical minerals facility in Georgia.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 18, 2026 | 20:12 GMT
Venezuela, Guyana: President Rodriguez Issues Statement Regarding Essequibo Region
Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez issued a statement on X on Feb. 17 regarding the country's dispute with neighboring Guyana over the Essequibo region, stating that the 1966 Geneva agreement is "the only legally valid instrument for achieving a mutually acceptable solution to the territorial dispute over Essequibo."
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 18, 2026 | 18:20 GMT
The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy
European governments are financially capable of supporting Ukraine's war effort this year, but the country's long-term reconstruction -- and its emergence as a viable, independent economic entity -- will hinge on the sustained political will of European countries and a lasting peace settlement to attract necessary levels of investment. Foreign financial, military and humanitarian support has enabled Ukraine to remain in the fight against numerically superior Russian forces, backed by vastly greater economic resources, for nearly four years of conflict. Although the United States under President Donald Trump has largely ended its support for Ukraine, European countries have stepped in to fill the gap. In January 2026, the European Commission officially approved a 90 billion euro "Ukraine Support Loan," which includes approximately 60 billion euros for military support and 30 billion euros for general budgetary support. In late 2025, the European Union and G-7 partners also agreed on a 45
READ MORE