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AssessmentsDec 15, 2025 | 17:59 GMT
A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble.
Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro
EU governments have been looking to use immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine, which, despite concerns by critics, is unlikely to have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone and euro financial assets. But should intra-EU agreement on how to do so remain elusive, European governments will have the option of providing financial support on a bilateral basis. During a summit on Dec. 18-19, the governments of the European Union will discuss ways to continue providing funding to Ukraine, which remains highly dependent on foreign financial support to continue the war against Russia. With much-reduced support from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, European governments are faced with great pressure to provide funding. Increasing domestic spending pressures as well as large fiscal deficits and high debt ratios have led them to look for ways to lend support without incurring further liabilities. EU governments are quite capable of
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United States
Europe
Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportDec 15, 2025 | 16:25 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Negotiator Rejects Disarmament After Assassination of Senior Commander
Hamas' chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, said that Israel's alleged violations risked upending the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and that Hamas' arms are a "right guaranteed by international law" in a video statement released a day after Israel assassinated a senior Hamas commander, Raed Saad, in Gaza, Al Jazeera reported Dec. 14.
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 12, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024.
Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union
The Tunisian government's likely passage of a contentious finance bill will elevate tensions with the country's largest labor union, opening the door to a potential expansion of strike and protest activity, but reforms to increase production will likely improve the manufacturing and agricultural export sectors. On Dec. 10, Tunisia's 2026 Finance Bill advanced from the National Assembly to President Kais Saied, who is expected to approve it; upon approval, the measure will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The bill combines the annual budget with other financial measures, including wage and pension increases, provisions to improve fiscal consolidation (including a wealth tax to expand Tunisia's tax base), value-added tax reductions on manufacturing and some agricultural production inputs, and reforms to drone laws to boost agricultural profitability. One particularly contentious provision is Article 15, which approves wage increases for public and private sector workers at a reported average annual rate of
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Tunisia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 10, 2025 | 19:15 GMT
Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.
U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization
The United States is unlikely to impose an expansive terrorist designation on the Muslim Brotherhood, choosing instead to focus on specific branches and individuals and emboldening anti-Brotherhood governments to take harder stances against the movement. On Nov. 24, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order starting the process to designate chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). The order calls for the secretary of state, secretary of the treasury, attorney general and director of national intelligence to submit a joint report in 30 days regarding the designation of Muslim Brotherhood chapters in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and potentially elsewhere. After 45 days, the White House intends to impose FTO designations on the branches the report finds to be backing terrorism. The move comes against the backdrop of Florida and Texas declaring the Brotherhood and a Brotherhood-affiliated Muslim civil rights organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), as
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United States
Middle East and North Africa
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025 | 18:18 GMT
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
In October, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense published its biennial National Defense Report (NDR), which describes the state of Taiwan's security environment, as well as the goals for and challenges to developing the island nation's military. The report suggests the Taiwan military's arms procurement and recruitment capabilities are growing to help it deter and defend against a Chinese invasion. But it is still unclear how well Taiwan could coordinate a whole-of-society defense effort, necessitating deeper informal ties with the West and the broadcasting of China's aggressive gray-zone activities to gain Western support. Likewise, Taiwan's ability to deter Chinese aggression shy of an invasion (e.g., a blockade) depends as much on political signals and Lai's willingness to escalate as it does on Taiwan's military capabilities. The upshot is that Taipei is demonstrating growing intent and tactical capabilities but not yet the administrative capacity to carry out a sustained defense. Moreover, perhaps
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China
Taiwan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 2, 2025 | 20:45 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.
What To Expect as Putin Visits India
Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to India will reinforce the symbolic strength of bilateral ties and support incremental cooperation across defense, energy and trade, though India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and sanctions and continues its shift toward defense and technology diversification. Putin will visit India on Dec. 4-5 for the annual India-Russia summit, where he will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Russia and India have held summits each year since 2000, following the signing of the Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership, which created their highest-level institutionalized dialogue. These meetings, typically hosted alternately by each country, aim to deepen the strategic partnership through high-level discussions.
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Russia
India
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 20, 2025 | 20:11 GMT
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa delivers a speech in Damascus on July 3, 2025, during the unveiling of the "New Visual Identity of the Syrian Arab Republic."
The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State
Syria's entry into the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State coalition will bolster the country's reconstruction and increase pressure on the jihadist group, but Syria's Western outreach will risk alienating hard-liners in the transitional government and could eventually help revitalize the Islamic State if popular expectations are not met. On Nov. 10-12, Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa made his first official visit to Washington, where he held meetings at the White House with U.S. President Donald Trump and senior national security officials. During the visit, the two sides announced that Syria would join the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State, marking the first formal security cooperation agreement between Damascus and Washington since the terror group emerged during Syria's civil war in the early 2010s. The announcement included plans for a joint coordination mechanism focused on intelligence sharing and operations against Islamic State cells in the Syrian desert and along the Euphrates
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United States
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 14, 2025 | 19:26 GMT
A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote.
The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia will focus on pragmatic investments in projects in the final stretch of Vision 2030, likely feeding into existing diversification efforts, but this will not be enough to provide long-term stability to the Saudi political economy, leaving Riyadh wedded to an implicit subsidy system that could invite future instability.
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Saudi Arabia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsNov 12, 2025 | 20:03 GMT
Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen.
What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security
Israel is highly likely to launch another military offensive against the Houthis in the coming months, which will prompt the group to resume attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, and could also reignite Yemen's civil war and subsequent Houthi attacks on the Gulf, while creating security vacuums for al Qaeda to exploit. In a recent letter to the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Houthi military chief Maj. Gen. Yusuf Hassan al-Madani signalled that the group had paused its attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea, but threatened to resume operations if Israel renewed its Gaza offensive. This comes as Israel and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement have exchanged a series of tit-for-tat threats of military confrontation in recent weeks, hinting at the potential for renewed confrontation. Most notably, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Nov. 2 that his country was preparing to take further military action against the
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Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 11, 2025 | 22:35 GMT
Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025.
Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation
Back-to-back explosions in New Delhi and Islamabad appear unlikely to trigger imminent Indian or Pakistani retaliation against the other, but severe bilateral mistrust and tensions will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes against targets in major cities should either country determine the other culpable for the recent blasts. On Nov. 11, a suicide bombing killed at least 12 people and injured 36 outside the District Judicial Complex in Islamabad, Pakistan. While the Afghanistan-based Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group denied responsibility, a hard-line TTP faction, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), subsequently claimed the attack and said it targeted "the judges, lawyers, and other staff who enforce Pakistan's un-Islamic laws." Pakistani authorities are still investigating "all aspects" of the bombing, though some top officials have suggested it occurred with Indian support, with Pakistan's prime minister attributing the attack to India-backed militants, and the country's interior minister claiming "Indian-backed elements and Afghan Taliban proxies" were
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India
Pakistan
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 10, 2025 | 23:33 GMT
Chile's presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (C) poses with her team after registering her candidacy at the Electoral Service of Chile in Santiago on Aug. 16, 2025.
Chile's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Chile will hold general elections on Nov. 16 to elect a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and half the Senate. A runoff will follow on Dec. 14 if no presidential candidate secures over 50% of the vote. President Gabriel Boric cannot seek re-election, and his coalition backs Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara. Her main rivals include far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast, center-right candidate Evelyn Matthei and ultra-right candidate Johannes Kaiser. Campaigns have centered on crime, migration and slow economic growth, amid Chileans' frustration over failed constitutional reforms since the 2019-2020 protests.
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Chile
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 6, 2025 | 19:38 GMT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addresses the Senate in Rome on Oct. 22, 2025.
Italy Struggles To Translate Political Stability Into Economic Growth
Italy's political and fiscal stability has markedly improved under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and while upcoming institutional reforms could help her further consolidate power ahead of the 2027 elections, weak growth and the expiry of EU recovery funds may compel her to abandon recent fiscal prudence, potentially once again testing investor confidence in the country's fiscal trajectory. On Oct. 30, Italy's Senate gave final approval to Meloni's flagship justice reform, which establishes separate career paths for judges and prosecutors and bans magistrates from switching between these roles. The proposed constitutional amendment also restructures the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM) -- the top self-governing body of the Italian judiciary -- into two distinct branches and expands the President of the Republic's authority over appointments, promotions and disciplinary action. The reform will now proceed to a confirmatory referendum, expected in March or April, where Italian voters will decide whether the constitutional
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Italy
Economics
Politics
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