AssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 21:28 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
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AssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 14:30 GMT
Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships
India's recent deals with New Zealand and Oman signal modest efforts to expand trade, investment and labor mobility, but various constraints will limit their impact as India struggles to reach larger agreements with partners like the United States, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council. On Dec. 22, India and New Zealand announced that, after nine months of negotiations, they had reached a free trade agreement (FTA) to reduce tariffs, improve labor mobility and expand trade of goods and services and investment. Signing is expected in the first half of 2026. The announcement of the FTA came days after India and Oman on Dec. 18 signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA).
READ MORESituation ReportDec 24, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
Cuba: Mexico Confirms Oil Shipments Amid U.S. Blockade of Venezuela
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed the shipment of 80,000 barrels of oil to Cuba, stating that it occurred pursuant to historic bilateral agreements and for humanitarian reasons, Efe reported Dec. 22.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsDec 24, 2025 | 15:08 GMT
The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence
Yemen's Southern Transitional Council (STC) -- backed by the United Arab Emirates -- has been on a blitz across the remnants of the central government's territory. A quick glance at a Yemeni Civil War map might suggest that a returned South Yemen may be on the cusp of reemergence after three decades within a unified state. But this path to de facto independence, while increasingly viable, is still far from a sure thing -- and for the STC to achieve it, the group must balance the pillars of Yemeni geopolitics with a care that suggests a long road still lies ahead.
READ MORESnapshotsDec 23, 2025 | 16:02 GMT
Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union
Despite growing political and business calls for the United Kingdom to rejoin the EU customs union, internal disputes within the British government and stringent EU conditions make a re-entry unlikely in the short to medium term.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 16, 2025 | 22:09 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty
Central Asia's strategic location between Russia, China and Europe will enhance its role in evolving Eurasian trade routes, but rival agendas, uneven financing, weak regional coordination, and governance and security risks will limit the region's rise as a true continental hub. Russia's war in Ukraine, persistent shocks to global supply chains and China's recalibrated Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have positioned Central Asia from a peripheral transit zone into a central area of great power competition. The region's five states -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- now sit at the junction of competing east-west and north-south corridors, where the build-out of transport and energy infrastructure creates strategic opportunities but also heightens exposure to geopolitical fragmentation and external pressure. Despite this renewed external attention, Central Asian states' landlocked geography imposes some of the world's highest trade costs, making improved connectivity an economic imperative. Compounding this geographic challenge, long-standing institutional
READ MORESituation ReportDec 15, 2025 | 19:34 GMT
Hong Kong, U.S., U.K.: Jimmy Lai Convicted, Raises Dilemma for Trump, Starmer
A Hong Kong national security court found Jimmy Lai, the 78-year-old founder of shuttered pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, guilty on two counts of conspiring to collude with foreign forces under the 2020 National Security Law and one count of sedition under a colonial-era law, Hong Kong Free Press reported on Dec. 15.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 13, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 12, 2025 | 18:05 GMT
China: Steel Export Licenses To Curb Domestic Risks, But Not Trade Disputes
China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Dec. 12 that it was implementing a licensing regime on exports of 300 steel products (various HS 72 & 73 codes), effective Jan. 1, 2026.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 8, 2025 | 20:38 GMT
Ukraine, Europe: Kyiv Prepares Counterproposal for Washington as Territorial Deadlock Persists
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv will present a revised 20-point peace framework to U.S. officials on Dec. 9 following consultations with British, French and German leaders in London, United Kingdom, Reuters reported on Dec. 8.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 3, 2025 | 19:41 GMT
Hong Kong: Dissenters Arrested Over Government Critiques Ahead of Elections
The Hong Kong police arrested two individuals for calling for an independent investigation into the government's response to the Nov. 26 Wang Fuk Court apartment fire, which killed at least 156 people, The New York Times reported on Dec. 3.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 27, 2025 | 08:03 GMT
Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas
On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.
READ MORESituation ReportNov 26, 2025 | 21:58 GMT
U.K.: Chancellor Reeves Unveils Tax Hikes in Budget to Restore Stability Amid Weak Growth
British Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented her Autumn Budget to Parliament on Nov. 26, outlining tax rises totaling 26.1 billion pounds (about $30.3 billion) a year by 2029-30, The Guardian reported.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 26, 2025 | 16:08 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade
Faced with the risk of U.S. financial sanctions, China and some other countries have sought to de-dollarize their international trade. While this will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, it will do little to undermine the position of the dollar as the preeminent international trade and finance currency over the next decade.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 24, 2025 | 20:26 GMT
What To Make of Europe's Counterproposal to the U.S. Ukraine Peace Plan
European efforts to adjust core elements of the Trump administration's peace plan for Ukraine will still leave Kyiv exposed to Washington's threat to pull support, and limited leverage and internal constraints mean Europe remains largely unable and thus unlikely to sustain Ukraine's defense alone if negotiations with the Trump administration were to break down. On Nov. 24, the United Kingdom, France and Germany presented a joint counterproposal to the United States' 28-point Ukraine peace plan, which they and other European countries had widely criticized for largely favoring Russia, offering an alternative framework that removes several contentious provisions and reframes others. The document reaffirms Ukraine's sovereignty and calls for a comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Ukraine, Russia and NATO, while removing the original U.S. language on halting NATO enlargement and outlining "robust" security guarantees for Ukraine, including a U.S. commitment that "mirrors" NATO's Article V but would only apply if Ukraine refrains
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 22, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: A High-Stakes British Budget, South Africa Hosts the G20
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportNov 21, 2025 | 17:38 GMT
India: Federal Government Implements Labor Codes
India announced the implementation of four new labor codes aimed at modernizing and streamlining the country's decades-old labor laws, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 21.
READ MORESituation ReportNov 20, 2025 | 17:46 GMT
Nigeria: Separatist Leader Found Guilty of Terrorism
A Nigerian court sentenced separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu to life in prison after finding him guilty on seven charges, including terrorism, treason, and involvement with a banned separatist group, over his campaign for an independent Biafra state in southeastern Nigeria, BBC reported on Nov. 20.
READ MORESituation ReportNov 20, 2025 | 16:49 GMT
Canada: Agreement Reached To Break Down Internal Trade Barriers
Canada's 13 provinces and territories, plus the federal government, signed the Canadian Mutual Recognition Agreement on Nov. 19 to remove internal trade barriers for thousands of products, according to a statement from British Columbia's provincial government.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 18, 2025 | 22:52 GMT
The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.
The Canadian government's efforts to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties away from the United States will likely make some headway in the coming years, but results will be slow and could invite U.S. retaliation, while deficit spending to fuel Ottawa's strategy may also open the door to longer-term fiscal pressure. On Nov. 17, Canada's House of Commons narrowly passed the first full budget under Liberal Party Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority government, staving off fresh elections as budget votes are confidence votes in the Canadian political system. Carney framed the fiscal year 2025-2026 budget as making "generational investments" to resuscitate a stagnant economy weighed down by many factors, including low productivity, weak business investment, domestic trade barriers and, more recently, U.S. tariffs. To this end, Carney has pledged that the budget, which relies heavily on deficit spending to finance large public investments in infrastructure, defense
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