Situation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 20:47 GMT
U.S., Syria: U.S. Lifts Some, but Not All, Sanctions on Syria
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to partially lift sanctions on Syria, the White House announced on June 30.
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AssessmentsJun 30, 2025 | 15:02 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 28, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 20:15 GMT
U.S., Canada: Trump Says Trade Talks With Canada Will End Over Digital Services Tax
U.S. President Donald Trump said in a June 27 Truth Social post that the United States would immediately terminate all trade talks with Canada and impose new tariffs on Canadian goods within the next seven days due to Canada's digital services tax going into effect.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 19:23 GMT
Brazil: Supreme Court Ruling Holds Digital Platforms Liable for Users' Posts
Brazil's Supreme Court ruled on June 26 that social media platforms can be held legally responsible for users' posts, the Financial Times reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 15:48 GMT
Nigeria: Tinubu Brokers Deal Between Wike and Fubara Over Rivers Crisis
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu brokered a deal between Minister for the Federal Capital Territory Nyesom Wike and suspended Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara over the ongoing political crisis in Rivers state, The Punch reported June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 15:20 GMT
Canada: Landmark Legislation Passes to Narrow Intraprovincial Barriers and Speed Up Major Projects
Canada approved a landmark law to implement the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act, The National Post reported June 26.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
U.S., Mexico: Treasury Restricts U.S. Business With Three Mexican Financial Institutions Accused of Cartel Financing
The U.S. Treasury Department identified Mexican banks CIBanco and Intercam and brokerage company Vector Casa de Bolsa as being of primary money laundering concern in connection with illicit opioid trafficking over alleged laundering of millions of dollars for cartels, according to a June 25 Treasury press release.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
U.S. Naval Update Map: June 26, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 25, 2025 | 19:43 GMT
Afghanistan, China: Afghan Taliban Cancels Major Chinese Oil Extraction Deal
The Afghan Taliban said it had terminated its 25-year, $540 million oil extraction and development contract with China-based Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co. on June 17, Nikkei reported on June 25.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 19:32 GMT
In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church
In Armenia, an escalating dispute between the prime minister and the country's national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan, raising the risk of another military confrontation. On June 25, Armenian authorities arrested Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and 13 other people on charges of plotting violence and other destabilizing actions to overthrow the government and seize power. According to the country's top criminal investigative agency, the conspirators had recruited more than 1,000 people since the start of the year, and investigators allegedly have already recovered firearms, ammunition and other items linking them to the plot. The arrests, which the archbishop's supporters have called politically motivated, are the most severe developments in an escalating feud between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church, one of the most influential institutions in the country. The standoff began in late May,
READ MORESnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
READ MORESnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability
The collapse of France's pension reform negotiations could undermine Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's fragile minority government, increasing the risk of no-confidence votes, budgetary deadlock and potentially early elections at a time when the country is facing mounting pressure to rein in its growing deficit. On June 23, months-long negotiations between French unions and employer groups over potential amendments to President Emmanuel Macron's contested 2023 pensions reform collapsed. The talks focused on revising the law that gradually raises France's retirement age from 62 to 64, as part of a last-ditch attempt to ease tensions between the government, trade unions and opposition parties. Prime Minister Bayrou had tasked unions and employers with identifying compromise measures, including earlier retirement options for physically demanding jobs and greater recognition of maternity leave. However, employer groups reportedly opposed any changes that they argued would impose new costs and could threaten the financial balance of the system.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 23, 2025 | 21:12 GMT
With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions
Absent further retaliation, Iran's seemingly limited response to the June 22 U.S. attacks enables a path toward de-escalation between the two sides, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict. On 23 June, Iran launched multiple missiles against Qatar's al-Udeid Air Base, which houses the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. Qatar released a statement condemning Iran's attack on the airbase, which had been partially evacuated as a precaution, and noted that Qatari air defenses intercepted the Iranian missiles, which caused no casualties. According to Iranian state-backed media, Iran's Supreme National Security Council claimed that the attack "obliterated" the al-Udeid Air Base -- the same word U.S. President Donald Trump used to describe the damage the recent U.S. strikes did to Iran's nuclear facilities -- and that Iran deployed the same number of missiles as the number of bombs (14)
READ MORESituation ReportJun 23, 2025 | 18:59 GMT
Uganda, Congo: Ugandan Army Chief Threatens To 'Hunt' Congolese Pro-Government Militias
Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda's army chief and the son of President Yoweri Museveni, threatened to "hunt down" Wazalendo militias, which support the Democratic Republic of the Congo's government, in possible joint Ugandan-Congolese operations unless they surrender, Actualite.cd reported on June 22.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 22, 2025 | 15:35 GMT
Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation
Iran will likely try to calibrate its kinetic response to the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities to avoid significant escalation, but its response will open the door to further attacks that include Iran targeting regional oil and gas production. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 22 said that the United States had "blown up" diplomacy with its decision to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities earlier that day, and that "we have to respond" following what has been more than a week of Israeli attacks that began on June 13. When asked by a reporter about potential retaliation options, Araghchi would not rule out an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or harass ships in the strait, or an exit from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In response to the attacks, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a June 22 statement that the United States had put
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 21, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict Rages On, NATO Holds Annual Summit
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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