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AssessmentsMar 17, 2026 | 18:55 GMT
Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021.
Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?
Rwanda is unlikely to press ahead with a complete troop withdrawal from Mozambique for the foreseeable future, but the European Union's refusal to provide fresh funding would raise the prospect of a partial drawdown of Rwandan forces that would portend rising security risks in the northern Cabo Delgado province and could prompt Maputo to expand counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. On March 14, Rwandan Foreign Affairs Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said the Rwandan government was ready to withdraw its troops from Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province, where they are stationed to combat a jihadist insurgency, if Kiagli's "efforts and achievements [were] not appreciated." This came after Bloomberg reported on March 12 that funding from the European Union for Rwanda's military deployment in Cabo Delgado is set to expire in May and that EU officials have not yet planned any discussions on a possible renewal. Prior to the Bloomberg report, the
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Mozambique
Rwanda
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 5, 2026 | 18:06 GMT
The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) on Feb. 25 at the quay of the North Port in Malmo, Sweden.
Prolonged Conflict in Iran Would Elevate Security, Migration Threats Against Europe
A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would increase Europe's exposure to security risks, including potential attacks on European-linked assets, renewed migration pressures and an elevated terrorism threat, particularly if European capitals assume a more active military or diplomatic role against the Iranian regime.
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Iran
Germany
Greece
France
United Kingdom
Cyprus
Spain
Italy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 2, 2026 | 13:58 GMT
A woman holds a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranians protest against attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States on Feb. 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.
European Economic Growth Likely To Suffer From Impact of U.S. and Israel-Iran War
The ongoing U.S. and Israel-Iran war will primarily impact Europe through energy market volatility, with outcomes ranging from a manageable price shock and modest growth slowdown to a severe energy-driven economic downturn, depending on the duration of the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Since Feb. 28, the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel has evolved into an active regional conflict. The U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military and strategic infrastructure and senior leadership have prompted Tehran to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel, U.S. assets in the region and Gulf states, as well as attacks on shipping across the Persian Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz (through which approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption and liquefied natural gas trade transits) has emerged as the central pressure point, with Iran warning vessels against entering the corridor and maritime operators such as Maersk suspending routes. Oil markets reacted immediately: Brent
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Iran
Europe
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 26, 2026 | 23:09 GMT
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) shakes hands with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace on Feb. 19, 2026, in Washington, D.C.
To Escape Russia's Orbit, Armenia and Azerbaijan Turn to Each Other -- and the West
Armenia and Azerbaijan will seek to capitalize on momentum toward a final peace treaty amid expanding Western engagement to fill the vacuum left by a weakened Russia, but this geopolitical realignment will be tested by Moscow's influence operations ahead of elections in Armenia and Iran's competing geopolitical interests. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan on Feb. 9-11, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the region since 2008. The trip sought to capitalize on diplomatic momentum generated by the August 2025 White House summit, where U.S. President Donald Trump convened the two nations' leaders to sign a draft peace agreement. In Yerevan, Vance met Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to announce the conclusion of negotiations on a U.S.-Armenia civil nuclear cooperation agreement, establishing a legal framework for the construction of a new nuclear power plant using U.S. technology to replace the aging Metsamor nuclear power plant. He
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United States
Iran
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsFeb 25, 2026 | 19:26 GMT
A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag.
The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions
​​Brussels' forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act, as currently drafted, is set to embed "Made in Europe" criteria into procurement and subsidy instruments to boost industrial resilience and competitiveness, but its final scope will determine whether it will help strengthen Europe's manufacturing base or drive higher costs, internal divisions and renewed transatlantic trade tensions. The European Commission is set to present its Industrial Accelerator Act on March 4. According to leaked drafts, it will introduce "Made in Europe" local-content requirements for products receiving support through public procurement and manufacturing subsidies, alongside "low-carbon" eligibility thresholds for key industrial inputs. The proposal would require electric, hybrid and fuel-cell cars benefiting from public support falling within the scope of the regulation to be assembled in the European Union and to contain at least 70% of components by value, excluding batteries, sourced within the bloc. Separate origin requirements would apply to defined core battery components. It
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United States
Europe
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsFeb 24, 2026 | 17:25 GMT
Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.
In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership
The convergence of domestic political developments and heightened North Atlantic security concerns is accelerating the debate over Iceland's membership of the European Union and increasing the possibility of a referendum to resume accession talks. On Feb. 23, Icelandic Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir said that her government would submit to Parliament a bill to organize a referendum on whether to reopen negotiations to join the European Union. Gunnarsdottir said that the bill would be submitted "before the summer" but declined to provide a specific date. Also on Feb. 23, Politico reported that a referendum could take place as early as August. Separately, Iceland's finance ministry announced that it was working on an assessment about the advantages and disadvantages of using the Icelandic krona compared to adopting the euro, which should be published by the end of June. 
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Europe
Iceland
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsFeb 24, 2026 | 16:11 GMT
European Union and Australian flags together.
The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks
Renewed Australia-EU trade talks reflect a broader strategic realignment driven by shared efforts to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility. A probable deal would expand market access in agriculture and advanced manufacturing and boost critical minerals cooperation and defense industrial integration. From Feb. 12-13, Australia and the European Union moved the long-stalled Australia-EU Free Trade Agreement back into a self-described "endgame" phase after intensive ministerial-level talks in Brussels. Australia's Trade Minister Don Farrell traveled to Brussels to meet EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen. Both sides framed the meetings as a renewed attempt to close the remaining gaps that halted the deal in 2023. In a joint statement on Feb. 13, Sefcovic and Farrell said "good progress" had been made and that the two would now brief their leaders, typically a sign that negotiators believe the outstanding issues are few
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Australia
Europe
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
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