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On GeopoliticsFeb 24, 2026 | 17:00 GMT
A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.
Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East
Erstwhile Gulf Arab allies battle one another in proxy wars in Sudan and Yemen. Pro-U.S. partners Turkey and Israel face off in Syria. These are just some of the most high-profile Middle Eastern conflicts now emerging, driven by an unfolding regional competition between two camps with very different views. One, comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, aims to fill power vacuums by rebuilding existing states. The other, made up of Israel and the United Arab Emirates, intends instead to weaken embattled states or carve them up into new ones.
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Somalia
Sudan
United States
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Lebanon
Libya
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsJan 28, 2026 | 22:49 GMT
A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.
The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality
More than a year after the fall of former President Bashar al Assad, the new Syria is still firming up its state identity -- and its place in the wider region. But the broader contours are now clear. There will be no Rojava, the decade-plus experiment in Kurdish self-rule that emerged in 2012, now that Syrian government forces, backed by Turkey and tolerated by the United States, have rolled over the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, Syria will also not return to Assad-era repression, as the new government has offered Kurds significant language and cultural rights. Navigating domestic and foreign pressures, Syria is emerging as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian state. For stability and reconstruction, it will maintain formal neutrality in the region's many conflicts, but Syria, struggling to escape Turkey's shadow and the Gulf Arabs' interests, will still inevitably be forced to endure some of those wars anyway.
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Syria
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 10, 2025 | 19:15 GMT
Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.
U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization
The United States is unlikely to impose an expansive terrorist designation on the Muslim Brotherhood, choosing instead to focus on specific branches and individuals and emboldening anti-Brotherhood governments to take harder stances against the movement. On Nov. 24, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order starting the process to designate chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). The order calls for the secretary of state, secretary of the treasury, attorney general and director of national intelligence to submit a joint report in 30 days regarding the designation of Muslim Brotherhood chapters in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and potentially elsewhere. After 45 days, the White House intends to impose FTO designations on the branches the report finds to be backing terrorism. The move comes against the backdrop of Florida and Texas declaring the Brotherhood and a Brotherhood-affiliated Muslim civil rights organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), as
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United States
Middle East and North Africa
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 31, 2025 | 20:04 GMT
An aerial photo shows the Saudi capital of Riyadh.
The Modern Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's national strategy is challenged by its austere past and potential future. The kingdom seeks alignment with a regional and global order to achieve middle power status while preventing internal divisions spurred by the very reforms it is using to walk that path. It is vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and internal erosion of consensus, especially the latter. Riyadh's monarchy must manage these imperatives effectively to avoid a return to a divided, foreign-controlled state, mirroring its 20th-century beginning.
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Saudi Arabia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
SnapshotsOct 24, 2025 | 16:19 GMT
A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.
Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks
Turkey will likely initially use diplomatic and political pressure to weaken Northern Cyprus's attempts to restart what are likely to be difficult federalization talks with the Republic of Cyprus. Should they nonetheless advance, an escalation to economic pressure could instead strengthen Northern Cyprus's drive for federalization in the coming years. On Oct. 19, the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus held a presidential election that resulted in the victory of Republican Turkish Party (CTP) head Tufan Erhurman, a center-left candidate who supports resuming federalization talks with the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus after a prolonged suspension of negotiations. Erhurman secured 62% of the vote, achieving a decisive victory over incumbent Ersin Tartar of the National Unity Party (UBP), who had rejected federalization talks and advocated for a two-state solution to the decades-long division of the island between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Two days after the vote, Devlet Bahceli, a Nationalist
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Turkey
Cyprus
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsFeb 19, 2025 | 21:55 GMT
Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.
Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals
From the ancient Romans to the modern Russians, population transfers have been a means for governments to remove the blood from the soil they wish to control. But population transfers have become taboo for a reason, as they can create more problems than they solve (not to mention violate the letter and spirit of various international agreements). While there are intense constraints on actually carrying out Trump's plan, his proposal to relocate the Gazan population will nonetheless change the U.S. approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, this new strategy is unlikely to solve the decades-old conflict and will instead fuel the erosion of post-World War II norms that have made population transfers rare, potentially setting the stage for future, generational conflicts as states steadily return to pushing civilians outside their borders.
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Armenia
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Russia
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsSep 9, 2024 | 16:51 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R) and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Tamim on April 15 in Washington.
Security in Iraq After a U.S. Withdrawal
Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq and a consequent decrease in U.S. influence there is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists -- especially Shiite nationalists -- and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 19, 2024 | 14:00 GMT
The Modern Geopolitics of Russia
For much of its history, Russia has been a quintessential geopolitical great power, and it arguably remains so today. Russia's power stems from its vast territory and geography, which spans 11 time zones and possesses large reserves of nearly every strategic resource. The country's amassment of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world has only solidified great power status in more recent decades.
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Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsNov 15, 2023 | 21:48 GMT
A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.
The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank
A little over a month into the Hamas-Israel war and a bit over two weeks since major Israeli combat operations began in the Gaza Strip, postwar governance for the territory is top of mind. While figuring out a viable plan is a necessary step in ending the current conflict and preventing the reemergence of Hamas or another group, anything resembling sustainable peace will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank. In many respects, the West Bank is a far more complex puzzle, given that it is populated by both Palestinians and Israeli settlers (and a continual Israeli military presence), has a population (combining both Palestinians and Israelis) that is at least one-third larger than Gaza's, encompasses a territory that is vastly larger than Gaza, and borders (or comprises, depending on who you ask) East Jerusalem, which Palestinians claim as their capital. Without confronting the challenges
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
On GeopoliticsSep 21, 2023 | 21:08 GMT
An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.
National Identity and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name
The act of naming something endows it with a definite identity -- from children to countries, a name is the most basic thing one can know about someone or someplace. It is the first building block from which an identity grows, extending outward into behaviors and probable futures. The name of a nation reflects the history, aspirations, culture and behaviors of its people and can, at times, suggest the long-term goals of its leaders. But when those goals change, so too can a name, as evidenced by India's occasional use of the term "Bharat" to describe itself at the recent Group of 20 summit. Though India may not be quite ready to change out its business cards, New Delhi's possible contemplation of such a name change makes sense amid shifting identities, power dynamics and goals in the age of multipolar power politics
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Turkey
China
Taiwan
North Macedonia
Ukraine
Georgia
Belarus
India
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJul 21, 2023 | 14:32 GMT
A 3D map of Turkey with a flag embedded into the planet's surface during sunrise.
The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey
Turkey is a classic geopolitical middle power. It’s not strong enough to unilaterally impose its policies, but not weak enough to be forced into the orbit of another great power. This middle power status is rooted in its geographic position between Europe and Asia, which affords Turkey great economic opportunities and knowledge transfers, but also exposes it to security threats by placing it between numerous powerful countries and potential invaders.
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Turkey
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsJun 8, 2023 | 17:51 GMT
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center left, wearing a red tie) and his newly appointed cabinet members visit the Anıtkabir memorial site in Ankara, Turkey, on June 6, 2023.
A Final Term for Turkey's Erdogan in the Age of Annexation
Five years is a long time for a politician, particularly an elected one. But it is a blip for a nation-state like Turkey, where progress is measured in decades. After winning reelection on May 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now faces the task of making his next (and potentially last) term -- which ends in 2028 -- a defining chapter in Turkey's ongoing transformation into an independent great power. To cement his legacy over the next five years, Erdogan may be tempted to follow in the footsteps of countries like Israel, India and Russia, which have all been accused to varying degrees of forcibly expanding their influence and power by violating the post-war norm of territorial integrity. This could see him conduct aggressive naval drills in a push to expand Turkey's maritime claims, install puppet republics along Turkey's border with Syria, or even attempt to unilaterally annex Cyprus.
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Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsMay 4, 2023 | 20:52 GMT
A photo taken on May 2, 2023, shows the new checkpoint set up by Azerbaijan at the entrance of the Lachin Corridor, the only land link connecting the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia.
A Return to Icier Turkey-Armenia Ties Risks Emboldening Azerbaijan
As pre-election political calculations drive Turkey to slow its normalization with Armenia, Azerbaijan will be emboldened to increase pressure against Armenia in both peace talks and on the battlefield, which could raise the specter of another major conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. On May 3, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that Turkey had closed its airspace to Armenian flights after Armenia opened a new monument in its capital commemorating a program to assassinate Ottoman and Turkish officials in retaliation for the Armenian genocide of 1915-16. The announcement came just days after an Armenian airline, Flyone Armenia, said it was denied entry to Turkish airspace without explanation. The diplomatic rift over the monument comes amid recent efforts by Turkey and Armenia to normalize their ties after decades of estrangement, which saw flights between the two countries resume in 2022 for the first time in two years.
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Turkey
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 6, 2022 | 20:52 GMT
A demonstrator holds a placard during a rally in Thessaloniki, northern Greece on April 24, 2021, to commemorate the 106th anniversary of the Armenian genocide.
Azerbaijan Risks Spoiling Budding Armenia-Turkey Normalization
Despite recent moves, Armenia is unlikely to advance normalization with rival Turkey until there is greater progress made in Yerevan's territorial disputes with Turkey-backed Azerbaijan, risking a collapse in normalization talks that would leave Armenia isolated in the Caucasus. On Oct. 6, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pahsinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held the first in-person talks between the leaders of the two countries in 13 years as part of an ongoing effort to establish diplomatic relations. In July 2022, Erdogan and Pashinyan pledged in a rare phone call to continue efforts to normalize relations between the two after decades of estrangement, saying they would work to open their borders to third-country nationals and start direct cargo flights between them. The talks came after a rare summit between the two countries' representatives in Moscow on July 1, where the pledges to pursue normalization were initially struck. However, in September,
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Turkey
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsAug 11, 2022 | 21:08 GMT
A partial view shows a collapsed UNESCO-listed building in the old city of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Aug. 10 following heavy rains.
Yemen's Path to a Frozen Conflict
Yemen's warring parties have agreed to another extension of a now four-month-old cease-fire -- opening the door, ever so slightly, to the possibility of at least freezing the war-torn country's seven-year conflict. The factors compelling the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels to continue prolonging their truce -- namely, waning foreign support, fuel and food insecurity, and the lack of a clear way for either side to achieve their military objectives -- are unlikely to change anytime soon. But even if this results in a sustained period of reduced fighting, real and lasting peace in Yemen -- while not impossible -- remains improbable. And that's because a frozen Yemeni war would likely resemble the unstable conflicts in Gaza and Syria, where periods of violence alternate with long swathes of relative calm.
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
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