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AssessmentsMar 5, 2026 | 18:06 GMT

The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) on Feb. 25 at the quay of the North Port in Malmo, Sweden.

Prolonged Conflict in Iran Would Elevate Security, Migration Threats Against Europe

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would increase Europe's exposure to security risks, including potential attacks on European-linked assets, renewed migration pressures and an elevated terrorism threat, particularly if European capitals assume a more active military or diplomatic role against the Iranian regime.

On SecurityFeb 19, 2026 | 21:29 GMT

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

The United States is rapidly assembling a significant military buildup of air and naval assets near Iran as U.S. President Donald Trump weighs options for military action against the country. The USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group is currently transiting the Atlantic Ocean toward the Middle East, where it will join dozens of fighter jets and at least six E-3 Sentry command-and-control aircraft that have recently relocated to U.S. bases in the area -- marking the largest accumulation of U.S. air power in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Situation ReportFeb 11, 2026 | 17:45 GMT

Venezuela, U.S.: Washington Allows Venezuela To Import U.S. Equipment and Software for Oil Production

The U.S. Treasury Department issued on Feb. 10 a general license authorizing the provision of U.S. goods, technology, software or services for the exploration, development or production of oil and gas in Venezuela, Reuters reported the same day.

Environment, Science & Technology

SnapshotsFeb 6, 2026 | 19:19 GMT

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

U.S.-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine will likely continue, and to deliver limited confidence-building steps. But they are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SnapshotsJan 27, 2026 | 18:16 GMT

The candidates running in Costa Rica's 2026 presidential election participate in a debate at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal in San Jose, Costa Rica, on Jan. 11, 2026.

Costa Rica's Upcoming Election Will Likely Yield Policy Continuity

Despite surging crime levels and political tensions, Costa Rica's right wing will likely maintain its hold on the presidency following the Feb. 1 election, continuing efforts to boost economic performance, crack down on crime and strengthen relations with the United States. On Feb. 1, Costa Ricans will head to the polls to elect a new president, two vice presidents and all 57 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly. The presidential election will advance to a second round on April 5 if no candidate secures at least 40% of the vote in the first round. The incumbent, President Rodrigo Chavez, is barred from seeking immediate reelection, as Costa Rica's Constitution requires an eight-year interval between presidential terms. The presidential race is crowded, with 20 candidates vying for the office. According to polling conducted by OPol on Jan. 2-5, Chaves' chosen successor, Laura Fernandez of the right-wing Sovereign People's Party (PPSO), appears

AssessmentsJan 22, 2026 | 19:32 GMT

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a hotel in New York City on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting on Sept. 22, 2025.

Where Things Stand in U.S.-India Trade Talks

A U.S.-India trade agreement could gradually ease tariffs and regulatory barriers, particularly in tech, industrial and energy sectors, but progress will likely remain constrained by India's domestic priorities in agriculture and manufacturing, as well as U.S. legal and political uncertainties. On Jan. 20, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Indian companies had "stopped" buying Russian oil after the United States further increased tariffs on India to deter such purchases -- a move that has since fueled tensions between the two countries. Bessent's comments followed a Jan. 13 meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, where they discussed ongoing bilateral trade negotiations, as well as cooperation on energy security and critical minerals. Since taking office in January, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has levied some of the world's highest tariffs on India, totaling 50%. Despite months of talks and multiple

AssessmentsJan 21, 2026 | 22:29 GMT

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's government reshuffle will help strengthen his negotiating capacity and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace process, as Western support weakens and Russia seeks to translate battlefield gains into diplomatic leverage. On Jan. 14, Ukraine's parliament approved former defense minister Denys Shmyhal as first deputy prime minister and minister of energy, as the country rushes to stabilize its energy sector amid intensified Russian attacks. Lawmakers also confirmed former digital transformation minister Mykhailo Fedorov as deputy prime minister and minister of defense. These appointments were part of a wider government reshuffle, which also included President Zelensky's Jan. 2 decision to appoint the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) chief, Kyrylo Budanov, as head of the Presidential Office, and to dismiss Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) head Vasyl Maliuk.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

AssessmentsJan 14, 2026 | 20:21 GMT

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Following the U.S. operation in Venezuela, China is exercising strategic patience, but U.S. pressure on Caracas could spur Chinese retaliation that threatens the U.S.-China trade deal and temporarily cool China's engagement in Latin America; however, the U.S. operation is unlikely to catalyze Chinese aggression against Taiwan. In the days since the Jan. 3 U.S. operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, there has been a deluge of media coverage speculating about its impacts on China, the largest purchaser of Venezuelan oil. Though U.S. President Donald Trump pledged on Jan. 3 that nations like China and Russia would still "get their oil," multiple media outlets have reported that Trump has demanded that acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez sever economic ties with China and prioritize U.S. access to Venezuela's oil industry. China strongly condemned the U.S. operation and called for Washington to immediately release Maduro and resolve issues with Caracas through dialogue,

AssessmentsJan 7, 2026 | 21:16 GMT

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

After complex negotiations, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is likely to be extended with stricter rules of origin and higher labor requirements that will make North American supply chains less competitive, but Canada and Mexico will maintain a competitive edge that will help drive investments in the long term, should they retain preferential access to the U.S. market.

AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 22:09 GMT

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela will remain highly volatile and exposed to internal violence and further U.S. attacks. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez will most likely adopt a pragmatic, cooperative stance toward Washington to ensure regime survival, but alternative scenarios include her opting for a defiant stance vis-a-vis Washington, a hard-line coup, an internal civil conflict and a highly unlikely transition to democracy.

Annual ForecastsJan 5, 2026 | 00:00 GMT

2026 Annual Forecast

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

AssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 14:30 GMT

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

India's recent deals with New Zealand and Oman signal modest efforts to expand trade, investment and labor mobility, but various constraints will limit their impact as India struggles to reach larger agreements with partners like the United States, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council. On Dec. 22, India and New Zealand announced that, after nine months of negotiations, they had reached a free trade agreement (FTA) to reduce tariffs, improve labor mobility and expand trade of goods and services and investment. Signing is expected in the first half of 2026. The announcement of the FTA came days after India and Oman on Dec. 18 signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA).

AssessmentsDec 2, 2025 | 20:45 GMT

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to India will reinforce the symbolic strength of bilateral ties and support incremental cooperation across defense, energy and trade, though India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and sanctions and continues its shift toward defense and technology diversification. Putin will visit India on Dec. 4-5 for the annual India-Russia summit, where he will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Russia and India have held summits each year since 2000, following the signing of the Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership, which created their highest-level institutionalized dialogue. These meetings, typically hosted alternately by each country, aim to deepen the strategic partnership through high-level discussions.

ColumnsNov 28, 2025 | 08:56 GMT

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted how accessible, cost-effective technologies, particularly drones, are reshaping modern warfare. Drones have become central instruments of cost-imposition, allowing Ukraine to inflict disproportionate damage on a materially stronger adversary at a fraction of the cost of traditional weapons systems. Far from the rapid win Russia hoped to impose, Ukraine has demonstrated that smaller states can leverage these technologies to survive, adapt and even impose sustained costs over the long term.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

AssessmentsNov 10, 2025 | 23:33 GMT

Chile's presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (C) poses with her team after registering her candidacy at the Electoral Service of Chile in Santiago on Aug. 16, 2025.

Chile's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Chile will hold general elections on Nov. 16 to elect a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and half the Senate. A runoff will follow on Dec. 14 if no presidential candidate secures over 50% of the vote. President Gabriel Boric cannot seek re-election, and his coalition backs Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara. Her main rivals include far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast, center-right candidate Evelyn Matthei and ultra-right candidate Johannes Kaiser. Campaigns have centered on crime, migration and slow economic growth, amid Chileans' frustration over failed constitutional reforms since the 2019-2020 protests.

Situation ReportNov 3, 2025 | 20:23 GMT

Kazakhstan: Government Deepens Western Energy Ties Ahead of Tokayev's Washington Visit

KazMunayGas chief Askhat Khassenov met TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to discuss the next phase of the North Caspian (Kashagan) project and review ongoing cooperation on the 1 gigawatt Mirny wind project, KazMunayGas' press service announced on Nov. 3.

On GeopoliticsOct 27, 2025 | 16:53 GMT

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Quarterly ForecastsSep 29, 2025 | 00:00 GMT

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

AssessmentsSep 10, 2025 | 20:18 GMT

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

The Nigerian government will likely continue prioritizing security crises based on the political and economic relevance of different regions, but myriad domestic constraints and limited regional cooperation will enable armed groups to continue to expand their range of operations and capabilities. In mid-August, the governor of northwestern Zamfara state publicly rejected the option of negotiating with armed bandits to curb their growing attacks, instead pledging to pursue them by force. His firm stance came days after reports emerged that some local government areas in neighboring Katsina state had struck peace deals with bandit groups, though the terms of these agreements remain unclear. The deals follow a recent surge in banditry characterized by killings of both civilians and security personnel, kidnappings for ransom and disruption to farming and herding -- pivotal economic sectors in northern Nigeria. While initiatives such as peace agreements with bandits aim to address insecurity, they highlight the

AssessmentsAug 27, 2025 | 17:19 GMT

The building housing Norway's parliament is seen on May 17, 2025, in Oslo.

Norway's Legislative Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

The Sept. 8 vote could result in another left-wing coalition focused on welfare and climate, a right-wing coalition focused on tax cuts and oil production, or perhaps even an unprecedented grand coalition between the country's two largest parties.

Norway

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