GuidanceOct 24, 2020 | 14:00 GMT
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
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GuidanceOct 24, 2020 | 04:01 GMT
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events the Stratfor team is tracking.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 23, 2020 | 20:31 GMT
Saad Hariri’s return as Lebanon’s prime minister will unlock access to French aid and likely improve the country’s economic stability, but it will also trigger a fresh round of unrest by reinforcing popular perceptions that political reform is unlikely. On Oct. 22, Lebanese President Michel Aoun named Hariri, a prominent Sunni politician, prime minister-designate and tasked him with forming a government. Most political parties approved the nomination, indicating cross-sectarian approval for the three-time prime minister. The Iran-backed militant group and Shiite political party, Hezbollah, even tacitly approved Hariri’s nomination, despite disapproving of other candidates up to this point.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 23, 2020 | 20:13 GMT
Malaysia: Government Reportedly Planning to Declare COVID-19 State of EmergencyAmid rising COVID-19 cases, Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin is allegedly preparing to declare a state of emergency after consulting with the country's monarch, Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah, The Straits Times reported Oct. 23, citing unconfirmed leaks.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 23, 2020 | 18:21 GMT
New survey data suggests that Saudi Arabia’s citizens remain politically aligned with and supportive of the government, though that support may quickly dissipate as Riyadh makes difficult decisions on economic restructuring. The Arab Opinion Index, a survey compiled by the Doha Institute in Qatar, gives rare insight into regional social and political trends in the Middle East. For Saudi Arabia, the latest survey findings reveal a population largely content with their economic and political situations. Saudis’ economic well-being, however, will be undercut as pandemic-related losses of oil revenue and the arrival of peak oil demand force their government to make deeper cuts to crucial social programs, creating pockets of unrest across the kingdom.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 22, 2020 | 21:47 GMT
U.S., Taiwan: Trump Administration Approves Eighth Set of Arms Sales to Island The U.S. State Department approved its eighth round of arms sales to Taiwan since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in 2016, Focus Taiwan reported Oct. 22.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 22, 2020 | 21:44 GMT
Turkey: In Surprise Move, Central Bank Holds Benchmark Interest Rate SteadyTurkey’s central bank moved to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 10.25 percent, Bloomberg reported Oct. 22.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 22, 2020 | 21:23 GMT
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and his government have few good options to contain the country’s growing protest movement without sparking broader security concerns and potentially exacerbating social tensions. More than two weeks of protests against police brutality erupted into violence on Oct. 20, when live ammunition was used against demonstrators at the Lekki toll plaza in Lagos State, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more. A viral video showing an alleged murder of a man by the police’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) initially sparked the protests. SARS was disbanded by the government on Oct. 11 in response to initial protests, but the so-called #EndSARS movement formed amid the uproar has since expanded its focus to ending all forms of police brutality in Nigeria.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 22, 2020 | 20:03 GMT
U.S., China: Six More Chinese Media Outlets Designated as ‘Foreign Missions’The U.S. State Department has designated six additional Chinese media outlets as foreign missions, including Yicai Global, Jiefang Daily, Xinmin Evening News, Social Sciences in China Press, Beijing Review and Economic Daily, The Hill reported Oct. 22.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 22, 2020 | 15:30 GMT
U.K., EU: Trade Talks Resume, Breaking Brexit StalemateTrade negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom have resumed and will intensify in the coming weeks, Politico reported Oct. 22.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 21, 2020 | 22:02 GMT
Egypt’s strong macroeconomic performance amid the COVID-19 pandemic and continued appeal to foreign investors hold promise for Cairo’s near-term financial stability. But it does not resolve the country’s stubbornly high poverty levels, which will eventually become a political liability by stoking anti-government sentiment. In an address on Oct. 18, Egypt’s finance minister said economic growth has exceeded even the finance ministry’s previous projections for 2020. This confidence reflects recent positive adjustments to Egypt’s economic outlook projections by Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- all of which now see Egypt’s economy growing at 3.5 percent of GDP in this year, exceeding the performance of most of its regional peers. But Cairo’s ongoing pursuit of business-friendly economic reforms in lieu of measures that address rising poverty levels could backfire by raising the risk of social unrest that ultimately deters foreign investment.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 21, 2020 | 21:10 GMT
Pakistan: Khan Expedites Lahore Housing ProjectPakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan ordered authorities to expedite work on the Ravi Riverfront Urban Development Project (RRUDP) in Lahore, Pakistan Today reported Oct. 20.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 21, 2020 | 19:06 GMT
Zambia: Bondholders Abstain From Rejecting Debt MoratoriumA group of investors holding 40 percent of Zambia’s eurobonds abstained from rejecting a proposal for a six-month debt moratorium while it looks for concrete evidence that all Chinese claims, including those of state-owned banks and policy banks, will be treated comparably and that there will be involvement from the International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg reported Oct 21.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 21, 2020 | 16:00 GMT
Stronger, broader-based growth in China’s economy in the third quarter of 2020 underscores that it will be the only major economy to end the year with a larger GDP greater than it began with. Downside risks remain, but the opportunity to further Beijing’s strategic goals could bear economic fruit in the form of furthering policies that foster domestic self-reliance, even as low consumption persists and a COVID-19 resurgence in the United States and Europe threatens Chinese exports. According to official government statistics released on Oct. 19, China’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.9 percent (year-over-year) from 3.2 percent in the second quarter of 2020, even as it fell somewhat short of predictions. Negative growth for the year was reversed with the economy expanding by 0.7 percent in the first nine months of 2020, including the 6.8 percent decline in the first quarter. This shores up the public image of the Chinese
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 20, 2020 | 21:15 GMT
India: BJP’s Support of Taiwan Deepens Diplomatic Animosity With ChinaIndia’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) displayed posters near the Chinese embassy in New Delhi congratulating Taiwan on its 109th National Day despite Chinese requests to avoid such actions, The Diplomat Oct. 20.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 20, 2020 | 20:56 GMT
Israel, UAE: Countries Sign Bilateral Agreements, Including Visa Waiver DealA delegation of senior Emirati officials arrived in Israel to sign several new agreements, including a visa waiver, an aviation deal and a tax treaty, Times of Israel reported Oct. 20.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 20, 2020 | 20:42 GMT
Pakistan: Protesters Gather in Karachi to Demand Khan's Resignation Tens of thousands of people gathered in Karachi to demand Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s resignation over the country’s corrupt politics and worsening economic conditions, The Independent Oct. 19.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 20, 2020 | 20:00 GMT
Sudan: Country Too Unstable to Normalize Ties With Israel, Warn OfficialsTwo senior Sudanese government officials said that Sudan would need to stabilize itself economically and politically before it normalized relations with Israel, warning that a move too soon would deepen splits in the government and even put the country’s nascent government at risk, Reuters reported Oct. 20
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 20, 2020 | 19:14 GMT
Japan: Prime Minister’s Trip to Vietnam, Indonesia Yields Progress on Arms DealsJapanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga reached an agreement in principle to export defense technology and equipment to Vietnam during his first official visit to the country, Reuters reported Oct. 19. Suga has since arrived in Indonesia, where he’s also promised the government $473 million in low-interest loans to help manage the economic fallout from COVID-19 and agreed to speed up talks toward arms deals.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 20, 2020 | 19:08 GMT
Thailand: Special Parliamentary Session Scheduled to Discuss Ongoing Protests The Thai Cabinet has agreed to hold a special, two-day parliamentary session to address ongoing anti-government protests, Bangkok Post reported Oct. 20.
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