Situation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 18:17 GMT
Tunisia: Chief of Largest Labor Union Resigns Ahead of Strike
Nourredine Taboubi, the secretary-general of the Tunisian General Labor Union, or UGTT, resigned, Reuters reported Dec. 23.
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Situation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 16:18 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Defense Minister Says IDF To Establish Civilian-Military Units in Gaza
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Israel would maintain a permanent security presence in the Gaza Strip for security reasons and that at some point -- though no specific timeline was given -- Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would establish Nahal units in northern Gaza, Reuters reported Dec. 23.
READ MORESnapshotsDec 23, 2025 | 16:02 GMT
Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union
Despite growing political and business calls for the United Kingdom to rejoin the EU customs union, internal disputes within the British government and stringent EU conditions make a re-entry unlikely in the short to medium term.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 22, 2025 | 20:51 GMT
Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Talks To Resume Despite Ongoing Fighting
Thailand and Cambodia agreed to talks between their defense officials under the bilateral General Border Committee on Dec. 24 to resume the U.S.-brokered July 28 ceasefire; the decision followed a special meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers Dec. 22 in Kuala Lumpur.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 22, 2025 | 17:33 GMT
Deadlock and Dissent Leave Merz's Reform Agenda Floundering
Germany's governing coalition is increasingly constrained by internal divisions, weak party discipline and falling approval ratings. While a government collapse or early elections remain unlikely, these pressures are slowing down and diluting reforms and causing uncertainty over Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ability to restore stability and deliver economic growth.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 22, 2025 | 16:31 GMT
EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months
On Dec. 22, the European Council officially extended the European Union's sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026, the institution announced.
READ MOREAnnual ForecastsDec 22, 2025 | 15:11 GMT
2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview
In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 20, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 19, 2025 | 21:34 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 19, 2025 | 19:44 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Global Hunger Monitor Declares Famine Is No Longer Present in Gaza
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a global hunger monitor, wrote in an assessment that there was no longer a famine in the Gaza Strip, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 19, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
Nigeria: Tinubu Presents 2026 Budget to National Assembly
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu presented the 58.18 trillion naira ($40 billion) budget for 2026 to a joint session of the National Assembly, with 5.41 trillion naira for defense and internal security, the single largest sectoral allocation, 6.0 trillion naira for education and health care, and 3.52 trillion naira for infrastructure, The Punch reported on Dec. 19.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 19, 2025 | 17:21 GMT
Japan: Prime Minister Reaffirms Nonnuclear Policy
The Japanese government publicly reaffirmed that it will not possess, produce or permit the introduction of nuclear weapons in its territory, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 19, 2025 | 16:08 GMT
Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing
In Yemen, territorial advances by UAE-backed forces will deepen fragmentation within the anti-Houthi camp, triggering violence that will undermine stalled ceasefire efforts. Despite Emirati hopes, a near-term push toward southern independence is unlikely, but renewed instability would encourage the Houthis to launch their own offensive. On Dec. 14, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced its rejection of Saudi mediation efforts aimed at securing the withdrawal of STC forces from the provinces of Hadramawt and al-Mahra, reaffirming it would maintain its deployments in the areas. The statement came after a Saudi-Emirati military delegation arrived in the port city of Aden on Dec. 12 to discuss steps to de-escalate tensions in southern Yemen following the STC's claim that it had consolidated control across much of the south of the country and that its forces were present throughout the broader Aden province, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed internationally recognized government (IRG), following
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 18, 2025 | 19:06 GMT
Algeria's Islamic Bonds an Incomplete Step Toward Diversifying Government Revenues
Algeria's inaugural issuance of Islamic bonds marks a symbolic step toward diversifying government funding, but the limited size of the effort means it will have minimal short-term impact on reducing dependence on hydrocarbon revenue and more traditional forms of raising government funds. Algeria is set to issue its inaugural sukuk, or Islamic bonds, with a seven-year maturity and a 6% fixed annual return in early 2026. According to reports, the initial issuance will be valued at around 297 billion Algerian dinars, or $2.3 billion, equivalent to about 1% of the country's GDP. The bond sale -- which was initially planned for November 2025 but later postponed due to government efforts to finalize debt issuance regulations -- is only open to Algerian citizens and backed by state-owned real estate assets. The original plans for sukuk issuance, initially reported in September, came during early discussions for Algeria's 2026 fiscal year budget.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 18, 2025 | 18:06 GMT
Mexico: Pemex's JVs Attract Limited Private Sector Interest Under New Interventionist Framework
Mexican state-run oil company Pemex has awarded five of the 11 new joint venture contracts it had planned to close by year-end, Reuters reported on Dec. 17.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 18, 2025 | 17:59 GMT
U.S., Syria: U.S. Congress Repeals Caesar Act Sanctions
The U.S. Senate repealed the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act as part of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act in a 77-20 vote with bipartisan support to permanently end U.S. sanctions on Syria, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 17.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 18, 2025 | 17:50 GMT
Angola, Congo: Lobito Corridor Consortium Secures $753M in Financing for Rail Upgrade
The Lobito Atlantic Railway consortium signed a $553 million loan with the U.S. Development Finance Corp. and a $200 million loan with the Development Bank of Southern Africa, Reuters reported on Dec. 17.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 17, 2025 | 18:20 GMT
U.S., Venezuela: Trump Orders Total Blockade of Sanctioned Tankers Around Venezuela
U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, Reuters reported on Dec. 16.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 17, 2025 | 14:48 GMT
2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview
In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 16, 2025 | 22:09 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty
Central Asia's strategic location between Russia, China and Europe will enhance its role in evolving Eurasian trade routes, but rival agendas, uneven financing, weak regional coordination, and governance and security risks will limit the region's rise as a true continental hub. Russia's war in Ukraine, persistent shocks to global supply chains and China's recalibrated Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have positioned Central Asia from a peripheral transit zone into a central area of great power competition. The region's five states -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- now sit at the junction of competing east-west and north-south corridors, where the build-out of transport and energy infrastructure creates strategic opportunities but also heightens exposure to geopolitical fragmentation and external pressure. Despite this renewed external attention, Central Asian states' landlocked geography imposes some of the world's highest trade costs, making improved connectivity an economic imperative. Compounding this geographic challenge, long-standing institutional
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