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On SecurityOct 29, 2025 | 15:39 GMT
Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building.
Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success
In recent weeks, a flurry of youth-led mass protests, often given the moniker ''Gen Z,'' has swept across countries in Africa and Asia. Despite each protest movement having its own unique features, there are signs that they have been inspiring, if not significantly coordinating with each other. They share a common frustration with the ruling elite and a belief that poor governance -- due to the rising cost of living, high-level corruption, social injustice, worsening authoritarianism or otherwise -- is mortgaging their futures. These movements not only have generated empathy from outsiders but also resulted in changes, from regime change or changes to unpopular legislation, that open the door to reforms to countries' political structures, economic systems and security apparatuses. But these uprisings also entail numerous risks beyond the obvious potential for near-term violence. These dangers are often overlooked, yet Gen Z protesters will have to confront the same fundamental
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Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
South Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Serbia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 15:05 GMT
Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.
Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain
After years of stagnation, the German economy will receive a boost from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure, but a failure to implement flanking structural reform will mean that the boost to medium-term economic growth will be limited. In recent weeks, numerous media reports have cast doubt on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ambitious plans to reform the economy. Since taking office in May after forming a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority between his center-right Christian Democratic Union or CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party or SPD, Merz's government has reformed the constitutionally mandated limits on government deficits and has committed to significant increases in defense expenditure and infrastructure, especially of transport. The new government has also agreed to implement reforms aimed at reducing growth-impeding bureaucratic rules governing product markets and infrastructure investment. However, despite these goals, thus far intra-coalition disagreements have translated into more limited practical results
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Germany
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 24, 2025 | 15:31 GMT
Kenyan forces stand next to the coffin of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during a funeral mass at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on October 19, 2025 in Bondo, Kenya.
What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics
The death of former Kenyan Prime Minister and opposition leader Raila Odinga risks fragmenting his political party, creating space for other opposition figures to challenge the incumbent president. Odinga, widely known as the "people's president" despite never serving in the role, died on Oct. 15 after reportedly suffering a stroke while receiving medical treatment in India. The 80-year-old, a central figure in Kenyan politics for decades, was granted a state funeral and seven days of national mourning. However, his death quickly sparked unrest across the country from the capital, Nairobi to his home region of Western Kenya. In the intervening days four people were killed when security forces used live fire to disperse crowds at the Kasarani stadium where Odinga's body was to be publicly viewed. On Oct. 16, Odinga's supporters also stormed airport grounds, breaching security and forcing authorities to temporarily halt operations. Some mourners denounced President William Ruto,
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Kenya
Economics
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025.
U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag
The United States will likely use sanctions relief leverage to de-escalate tensions between Syria and Israel and support Syria's economic and reconstruction recovery efforts, while continuing to provide sufficient, albeit diminished, support to the Kurds, enabling them to slow-walk integration with the Syrian government. In recent weeks, the U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, has met with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and visited the Kurdish-majority northeastern city of al-Hasaka to discuss mechanisms to facilitate the integration of the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the Syrian central government. In March, the SDF and al-Sharaa reached an agreement to integrate SDF institutions into the state, but little progress has been made after separate outbreaks of violence between government forces and minority Alawites and Druze communities led the SDF to seek to maintain their arms out of concern for similar clashes with government forces. However, following Barrack's visits and
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United States
Israel
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 22, 2025 | 17:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies
Ongoing revisions to the European Union's supply-chain due diligence framework reflect a softening of ambitious sustainability goals as competitiveness, economic security and trade diversification take precedence, easing near-term compliance burdens for businesses but maintaining binding ESG obligations, regulatory fragmentation and long-term uncertainty for large companies and high-impact sectors such as energy, agriculture and manufacturing. The European Union is weakening its most ambitious supply-chain sustainability rules -- the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) -- by delaying implementation, easing compliance and narrowing obligations. As part of the ''Omnibus'' simplification package presented in February, Brussels proposed giving companies more time and flexibility and softening due diligence, disclosure and liability requirements for all three initiatives. In April, the European Union also adopted the ''Stop-the-Clock'' Directive, pausing transposition and first-phase application of both CSDDD and CSRD to prevent immediate compliance deadlines from
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Europe
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
SnapshotsOct 22, 2025 | 16:31 GMT
Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025.
Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest
Bangladesh's political charter, a roadmap for constitutional reforms aimed at strengthening governance and limiting executive power, incorporates demands from protesters in the 2024 uprisings that ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and has broad party backing, but its non-binding nature and uncertainty over which party will win the February elections leave a risk of renewed unrest if the next government fails to implement the reforms. On Oct. 20, a 13-member delegation of ''July fighters'' -- people who took part in the July 2024 uprisings that led to the fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government and were injured or lost family members in the violence -- met with the National Consensus Commission, calling for legal protection and the issuance of official identification cards recognizing them as ''July injured heroes.'' Their demands followed protests on Oct. 17, at which demonstrators, mostly from the July Fighters group, clashed with police outside
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Bangladesh
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 21, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election.
Previewing Tanzania's General Elections
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in Tanzania's Oct. 29 general elections, and while her sidelining of opposition forces threatens to trigger potentially violent demonstrations, these are unlikely to pose a threat to her second term, set to focus on advancing constitutional reforms and infrastructure projects. On Oct. 10, Hassan stated at a campaign rally for her Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, or CCM, in the northern Mara region that she would press ahead with constitutional amendments should she be elected for a second term. Hassan's comments built on previous pledges made since taking office in 2021, when she accepted opposition demands for a constitutional review, though precise details have yet to be laid out. But while Hassan's recent comments were likely aimed at shoring up her reformist credentials, authorities have barred the country's two largest opposition parties -- Chadema and the ACT-Wazalendo -- from challenging
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Tanzania
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 20, 2025 | 21:56 GMT
A poster displaying a photo of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen as members of the Bolivarian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise in Caracas on Sept. 20, 2025.
U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela: Potential Scenarios
To weaken the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the United States will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months, while a scenario where Washington only sustains its current strikes on drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean Sea is less likely. Other scenarios -- including de-escalation, a U.S. operation targeting Maduro, a negotiated solution or a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela -- are highly unlikely to occur. On Oct. 15, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he had authorized the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela. He also said he was considering anti-drug trafficking operations on land, in addition to the ongoing U.S. strikes in the southern Caribbean Sea that have targeted at least five boats since early September. The statements, military attacks and drills near Venezuela come after the United States deployed eight warships and 4,500 sailors and marines
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United States
Venezuela
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 17, 2025 | 20:31 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other senior government members and deputies attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 8, 2025, in Beijing, China.
What To Watch for During China's Fourth Plenum
The Chinese government's fourth plenum will reveal its next five-year plan, elucidating economic and security objectives; it will likely also update Beijing's indigenous industrialization plans and fill the thinned ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, giving insights into future policy priorities and the trajectory of President Xi Jinping's political purges. China's Central Committee (CC), the national decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), will hold its fourth plenum from Oct. 20-23. In its five-year tenure, each CC holds seven plenums, with this fourth plenum set to discuss China's 15th five-year plan. Each five-year plan is a policy document that roughly outlines the CCP's top economic, security and political priorities for China, with this latest iteration covering 2026-2030. Though the full details will not be published until China's ''Two Sessions'' rubber-stamp legislative meetings in March 2026, the CCP usually publishes a proposal containing the broad policy contours and ideological framing
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China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
Situation ReportOct 17, 2025 | 15:54 GMT
Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter
Representatives from 25 political parties and alliances in Bangladesh, including major groups such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, signed the July National Charter 2025 -- named after the national uprisings of July 2024 -- which lays out a roadmap for constitutional amendments, legal reforms and the introduction of new legislation, The Business Standard reported on Oct. 17.
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Bangladesh
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportOct 16, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Madagascar: African Union Suspends Madagascar Over Military Coup
The African Union announced the suspension of Madagascar's membership from the continental bloc in response to the Malagasy military's Oct. 14 coup, warned of sanctions against the country's new military rulers and called for a civilian-led transitional government that organizes new elections as soon as possible, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 16.
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Madagascar
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 15, 2025 | 18:16 GMT
Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025.
Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar
In Madagascar, President Andry Rajoelina's ousting in a military coup on the back of widespread Gen Z protests will likely inspire demonstrators elsewhere in Africa and de-escalate political tensions in the near term, though protests risk resurging thereafter due to disagreements over the transition period. On Oct. 14, Col. Michael Randrianirina of the Personnel and Services Administration Corps unit of the army, or CAPSAT, announced that the military would take over government affairs, suspend the constitution and dissolve most state institutions with the exception of the National Assembly, the country's lower house. Randrianirina's announcement, which effectively marked a coup in the island nation, came just after the National Assembly impeached Rajoelina, who was exfiltrated by the French military from the country on Oct. 12. Despite its announced dissolution, Madagascar's High Constitutional Court subsequently called on Randrianirina to serve as head of state on an interim basis and for presidential elections
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Madagascar
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 15, 2025 | 17:07 GMT
Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participate in a ceremony at the Pyongyang Sports Palace on Oct. 9, 2025, during Lam's three-day official visit to North Korea.
Vietnam's Lam Extends Diplomatic Balancing Act With Rare North Korea Visit
The first visit by Vietnam's leader to Pyongyang in nearly two decades reflects Hanoi's balancing strategy and North Korea's bid to broaden ties beyond China, though numerous constraints limit how far ties can deepen beyond certain symbolic steps. From Oct. 9-11, Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam visited Pyongyang at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, marking the first Vietnamese leader-level trip since 2007 and only the second since 1950. The visit coincided with the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), around which Pyongyang organized a series of large-scale commemorations and diplomatic events. During his visit, Lam received a formal welcome ceremony, including a 21-gun salute and held high-level talks with Kim. The two leaders committed to deepen exchanges across party, parliamentary, governmental and local levels; broaden cooperation in sectors such as culture, education, health, tourism and information and communications; and intensify
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North Korea
Vietnam
Politics
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