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AssessmentsAug 20, 2025 | 19:56 GMT
A tank is seen during Turkey's International Defense Industry Fair on July 22, 2024, in Istanbul.
In Syria, Turkey and Israel's Parallel Deployments Heighten Flashpoint Risks
In Syria, Israel's competing interests and ongoing airstrikes are driving Turkey to accelerate its own military buildup, raising the risk of accidents, miscalculations or other incidents that could open the door to a brief crisis. In recent weeks, Turkey has made a number of announcements about improving its military capabilities with new jet purchases, which have coincided with recent warnings from Turkish officials about perceived growing threats from Israel. On June 18, Devlet Bahceli, the leader of Turkey's far-right nationalist party that is allied with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, asserted that Israel's war against Iran was part of a broader strategy to encircle Turkey and curtail its regional ambitions. Two days earlier, Erdogan announced that Turkey planned to increase its medium- and long-range missile stockpiles to a ''deterrent level'' against the backdrop of regional instability and what he described as rising military threats. Relatedly, on July 23, Turkey signed a
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Israel
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
AssessmentsAug 19, 2025 | 19:27 GMT
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Jassim al-Budaiwi and the foreign ministers from the six GCC countries (Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) pose for a group photo during the GCC foreign minister meeting in Kuwait City on June 2, 2025.
Solid Fundamentals Shield GCC Economies From Global Volatility
Gulf Arab states' solid macroeconomic and financial fundamentals will keep the region resilient in the face of global economic uncertainty, including a potential sustained drop in oil prices over the next few quarters. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to sustain solid economic growth over the next five years against the backdrop of low inflation and strong current account and external financial positions. Oil prices and production levels, particularly in the case of swing producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will continue to strongly contribute to economic growth, despite Gulf states' decades-long and ongoing efforts to diversify away from oil and gas production. Across the region, ongoing structural reform has helped increase the share of the non-hydrocarbon economy, though Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia remain highly reliant on oil and gas exports. By comparison, Bahrain and
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Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
AssessmentsAug 13, 2025 | 22:12 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (center), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (right) hold up an agreement signed during a ceremony at the White House on Aug. 8, 2025.
What To Make of the U.S.-Brokered Peace Deal Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
A U.S.-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan has ushered in a strategic realignment in the South Caucasus by cementing Baku’s territorial gains, sidelining Russia and Iran, and planting a long-term U.S. commercial footprint in the region. But the treaty will remain fragile amid unresolved security guarantees and implementation challenges, and could unravel within the next 12-18 months. On Aug. 8, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House, where the three leaders issued a joint declaration outlining the outcomes of their trilateral summit. According to the declaration, the leaders witnessed the initialling of a draft peace agreement by the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, aimed at ending decades of conflict between the two countries. They also endorsed a joint appeal to terminate the OSCE Minsk Group and its associated mechanisms. Additionally, the joint declaration committed Armenia, the
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United States
Iran
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsAug 11, 2025 | 22:10 GMT
Israeli military vehicles drive along the border fence into Israel, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025.
Despite Recent Talks, Syria-Israel Normalization Remains Highly Unlikely
While Syria will seek pragmatic ties with Israel for limited security cooperation, domestic anti-Israeli sentiment and pressure from hard-liners, stoked by additional Israeli military interventions in Syria, will prevent any formal normalization of relations between the two countries, especially in the absence of U.S. economic pressure on Damascus. On July 26, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack moderated a meeting in Paris between Syrian and Israeli representatives to de-escalate tensions following the latest round of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian targets on July 16, which included attacks near the presidential palace and on the army headquarters in Damascus. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted the strikes after the Syrian army deployed to the southern province of Sweida, a region Israel wants to be demilitarized, to break up sectarian clashes between Sunni Bedouin clans and Syrian Druze backed by Israel. But U.S. mediation successfully pressured both Israel and Syria to de-escalate, with interim Syrian
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United States
Israel
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsAug 11, 2025 | 17:56 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018.
Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine
On Aug. 15, U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a ceasefire that opens the door to a future peace deal, in addition to other bilateral issues. Media reports indicate Washington and Moscow are exchanging proposals that would let Russia retain most, if not all, of the territory it currently holds in return for halting its offensive and freezing the front lines. Trump has confirmed the talks, adding that ''there'll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both.'' Uncertainty remains over whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend, as the White House has voiced support for his participation but also signaled Trump is willing to meet Putin alone. Putin, for his part, has said conditions are not ripe for talks with Zelensky, making his exclusion likely. In this context, the main risk for
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
On SecurityAug 8, 2025 | 15:32 GMT
DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.
The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels
Trump's offer of military support, the designation of cartels as terrorist groups in February, and repeated comments regarding their control of Mexico and threat to the United States leave the door open to unilateral U.S. military and/or covert action to directly combat the cartels. It is thus worth exploring what such operations might entail and their objectives, as well as their potential implications for both the United States and Mexico.
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Mexico
United States
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsAug 7, 2025 | 21:53 GMT
An oil tanker train passes near a refinery in Guwahati, India, on March 30, 2023.
Will Trump's Tariffs Deter India From Buying Russian Oil?
Despite escalating U.S. tariffs, India will likely continue buying Russian oil for affordable energy in the short term, while simultaneously negotiating a trade deal with the United States to protect its broader economic interests. On Aug. 6, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order that places a new 25% tariff on Indian imports, effective Aug. 27, bringing total U.S. tariffs on India to 50%. In justifying the tariff hike, Trump cited India's continued purchases of Russian oil, arguing that these transactions have helped finance Russia's war in Ukraine. The move comes as Trump has repeatedly voiced frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over stalled ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine. In response to Trump's tariff announcement, the Indian government stressed its oil purchases were guided by market dynamics and the need to secure energy for its population, and asserted that India will act to defend its national interests. India has also
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United States
Russia
India
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsAug 6, 2025 | 14:31 GMT
Bolivia's presidential candidates participate in a presidential debate in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, on Aug. 1, 2025.
Economic Crisis Fuels Political Shakeup in Bolivia
Bolivia's upcoming elections will likely end the left-wing ruling party's grip on power amid widespread frustration over economic turmoil and legislative paralysis. A right-wing win would shift the government's focus toward improving the business climate, but deep-rooted socioeconomic challenges are expected to persist in the long term. On Aug. 17, Bolivia will hold general elections, with voters choosing a new president, all 130 members of its Chamber of Deputies and all 36 members of its Chamber of Senators. In the likely event that no presidential candidate achieves more than 50% of the vote or a 10 percentage point advantage over the next closest candidate in the first round, there will be a runoff vote on Oct. 19. All electoral winners will take office on Nov. 8. Polling suggests low support for the ruling left-wing Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS), with polling firm SPIE reporting in mid-July that Samuel Doria Medina
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Bolivia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsAug 6, 2025 | 14:12 GMT
The new flag of Syria's interim government.
In Syria, Parliamentary Elections Will Deepen Political and Sectarian Divides
Syria's parliamentary elections will likely consolidate the transitional government's authority and entrench Islamist-aligned governance. However, the vote is unlikely to foster minority integration, which means Syria will likely face more insurgencies that deepen fragmentation and set back national unity. On July 27, Syria's transitional government announced that it would hold its first parliamentary elections between Sept. 15 and 20. The parliament will expand from 150 seats to 210, with a third of those seats appointed by interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa. Local councils will vote on the rest of the seats indirectly through an electoral college system constitutionally established throughout the provinces. The government said even areas like the Kurdish northeast and the Druze southeast would be allocated seats, and that foreign election monitors would be invited in to monitor the entire process. Meanwhile, a Syrian government official said on July 27 that Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hijri, one of the Druze community's
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United States
Israel
Syria
Turkey
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsAug 5, 2025 | 17:20 GMT
Employees work at a production line as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius attend the groundbreaking ceremony for a new munitions factory of German defense contractor Rheinmetall on Feb. 12, 2024, in Unterluess, Germany.
How the EU's SAFE Loans Package Will Reshape Europe's Defense Industry
The Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loan facility represents the European Union's most immediate and politically viable tool to accelerate rearmament, support joint procurement and strengthen Europe's defense-industrial base amid growing security threats and transatlantic uncertainty, but long-term strategic autonomy goals will ultimately require more ambitious and contentious measures that currently face significant political constraints amid sovereign and fiscal concerns. Eighteen EU member states -- including Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain and the three Baltic States -- have applied for SAFE funding to support defense investments and joint procurement across the bloc by the July 30 deadline. Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden are among the countries that decided not to apply, at least in this initial round, though they could still do so ahead of the final deadline for formal applications on Nov. 30. According to the European Commission, governments have submitted preliminary funding requests -- outlining a
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Europe
Military & Security
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