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SnapshotsApr 15, 2025 | 18:47 GMT
Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei.
What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal
In the short term, Argentina's new IMF deal will help reduce financial risks, enable the government to further liberalize capital account restrictions, and grant the country access to international capital markets next year, but the risk of renewed reform and policy slippage will increase in the run-up to the 2027 presidential election. On April 11, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Argentina agreed on a four-year financial package and program, known as an Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The deal will provide the South American country with $20 billion in net financing, with an immediate disbursement of $12 billion. It will also unlock additional multilateral financing, with the World Bank already announcing a $12 billion support package for Argentina and China agreeing to roll over existing central bank swap lines. In exchange for the IMF's financial support, Argentina committed to maintaining macroeconomic adjustment policies and continuing structural reform. Buenos Aires also
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Argentina
Economics
AssessmentsApr 14, 2025 | 20:27 GMT
Mock drones and missiles are displayed at an exhibition on Nov. 13, 2024, in Sanaa, Yemen.
To Placate the U.S., Iran Temporarily Scales Back Its Regional Proxy Strategy
In response to U.S. threats, Iran and its allied militias in Iraq are taking a conciliatory approach to avoid winding up in Washington's crosshairs. But while this will temporarily mitigate the risk of a regional escalation as Tehran engages in nuclear talks with the Trump administration, Iran remains unlikely to fully abandon its proxy strategy. Since the United States began launching airstrikes on Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis in mid-March, there have been reports that Iran and its proxies in Iraq are taking steps to reduce the likelihood of also becoming a target of U.S. attacks. On April 3, The Telegraph reported that Iran had ordered its military personnel to leave Yemen, with an Iranian official saying that the decision was designed to mitigate risks of direct confrontation with the United States if an Iranian military member, such as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, was killed in the ongoing U.S.
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 11, 2025 | 17:30 GMT
Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen holds a press conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 28, 2025.
What the Democratic Alliance's Exit From Government Would Mean for South Africa
In South Africa, the Democratic Alliance's opposition to a key element of the 2025 budget significantly increases the likelihood of the party exiting the coalition government in the next few months, threatening legislative gridlock and a marked depreciation of the rand while raising the prospect of the government leaning closer to the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters. On April 8, Secretary-General of the African National Congress (ANC) Fikile Mbalula said in a statement on social media that the party's National Working Committee supported a "reconfiguration" of South Africa's coalition government. While the statement was subsequently deleted, it came after the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA), the second largest party in the coalition, voted on April 2 against the fiscal framework, one of three key pieces of legislation needed to pass South Africa's budget. Despite opposition from the DA and the right-wing Freedom Front Plus party (FF+), another member of the coalition government,
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South Africa
Economics
Politics
On GeopoliticsApr 11, 2025 | 16:26 GMT
NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025.
The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe
Despite diverging priorities among different European countries, NATO and transatlantic security cooperation remain the foundations of Europe's defense architecture. The Continent's fundamental interest is to maintain internal stability and deter external threats, primarily from Russia. However, deep-seated divisions persist over how to achieve these goals and the extent to which reliance on American security guarantees should take precedence over developing greater European strategic autonomy. The Russia-Ukraine war has underscored both the indispensability of U.S. military support and the risks of overreliance on Washington, fueling renewed European debates on defense spending, industrial capacity and military coordination.
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United States
Europe
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Poland
Spain
Italy
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 10, 2025 | 15:31 GMT
Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024.
Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain
A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly likely, but internal political dynamics in Armenia may delay its implementation, opening the door to cross-border violence. In the meantime, Russia will use a combination of threats and cooperation offers to preserve its influence in the region. On April 2, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that his country will not demand any additional changes to a peace agreement with Armenia that the two countries agreed on March 13. Still, Aliyev said that the agreement cannot enter into force unless Armenia introduces constitutional reforms to remove any references to what Baku perceives as Armenian claims on Azeri territory. On April 3, Armenia's Minister of Justice Srbuhi Galyan confirmed that her government is working on a new constitution and said that ''at some point'' the text will be made public. However, Galyan added, ''I don't think it's possible to have a new
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Iran
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 9, 2025 | 18:53 GMT
Palestinian men walk amidst the rubble of a destroyed building following an Israeli strike on a residential area of Gaza City on April 9, 2025.
To Secure Gaza, Israel Pursues a Strategy of Occupation and Displacement
In Gaza, Israel will likely lean further towards population displacement and military occupation as a long-term strategic solution to the territory's security dilemma, but election timelines, domestic pressure and logistical problems will hamper this strategy and may even reverse it. On April 1, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would conduct new military operations in Gaza with the intent to occupy significant new portions of the Strip, where fighting between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas has recently resumed. Since the collapse of the ceasefire in mid-March, Israeli combat operations have resurged in Gaza, as Israel tries to pressure Hamas to release the remaining 59 hostages and lay down their arms as part of an agreement that would precede the militants' ultimate exit from the Strip. According to the Associated Press, the IDF now occupies half of the Gaza Strip, including areas in
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 4, 2025 | 15:32 GMT
A photo of Khartoum, Sudan, with columns of smoke rising in the background.
What Next for Sudan After the Army Retakes Khartoum?
Following the Sudanese Armed Forces' capture of Khartoum, fighting will likely escalate around the city of El Fasher as the rival Rapid Support Forces seeks to consolidate control over Darfur, which will heighten the risk of a violent spillover into neighboring Chad. On March 26, Commander in Chief of the SAF Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced that the army had recaptured the capital city of Khartoum from the paramilitary RSF. This came amid sustained gains by the SAF in and around the city in recent weeks, which prompted the RSF to withdraw its forces to the west of the Nile River in late March. Still, RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan ''Hemedti'' Dagalo insisted on March 30 that the group had tactically repositioned outside Khartoum and vowed to continue fighting the SAF. Since the RSF's withdrawal from Khartoum, clashes between the two sides have continued in the capital's twin city of Omdurman, located
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Chad
Sudan
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 3, 2025 | 18:28 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on reciprocal tariffs as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a chart during an event in the Rose Garden entitled ''Make America Wealthy Again'' at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025.
The U.S. Launches the Largest Trade War in Modern History
New U.S. tariffs will slow global economic growth, increase inflation, worsen inequality in the United States, and trigger significant retaliation. While deals to suspend or reduce tariffs may be possible, most countries are unlikely to receive a reprieve in the short term. U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 ''reciprocal'' tariff plan shocked financial markets and the rest of the world by going well beyond what many governments and investors had been expecting. Trump unveiled a 10% tariff on all U.S. trade partners and higher rates for virtually all countries that have a trade surplus with the United States. Canada and Mexico are exempt from the new tariffs, and Trump also extended the exemptions of USMCA-compliant goods from 25% tariffs placed on Canada and Mexico that were due to expire on April 2. The 10% universal tariffs will go into effect on April 5 and the higher tariffs will go into
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Canada
Mexico
United States
China
Vietnam
Europe
United Kingdom
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsApr 2, 2025 | 15:49 GMT
Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.
Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy
Egypt's reliance on foreign aid and its efforts to strengthen economic ties, especially with the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, will limit its foreign policy and ability to project influence in the region, likely leading Egypt to take a more mediating and peacekeeping role in regional conflicts. In recent months, Egypt has elevated its diplomatic engagement in conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. In mid-January, Egypt hosted technical discussions with a Somali delegation about contributing peacekeepers to a multilateral force countering jihadists in the Horn of Africa; weeks later, the Somali Ministry of Defense said it completed these technical discussions and "looks forward to [Egypt's] contribution alongside other troop-partner nations." The same month, Egyptian and Qatari negotiators brokered the phased Hamas-Israel ceasefire that took effect on Jan. 19. Egypt also established a command center in Cairo to implement the agreement, which largely held until widespread Israeli attacks on the
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Somalia
United States
Egypt
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Europe
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsApr 2, 2025 | 14:19 GMT
Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria.
The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington
The transatlantic alliance is at an inflection point, with the United States now signaling a profound shift away from its traditional security commitments in Europe. Since taking office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump and various members of his administration have repeatedly insisted that Europe must take primary responsibility for its security, announced a withdrawal from future military exercises in Europe and warned that the United States may not protect its NATO allies that fail to meet the alliance's 2% of GDP defense spending target. Further alarming European leaders, Trump has repeatedly floated the prospect of annexing allied territories, including Greenland and Canada, and has refused to rule out the use of force to do so. Adding to European anxieties is the Trump administration's handling of the war in Ukraine, notably its rapprochement with Russia, exclusion of European allies from negotiations and pressure on Kyiv to enter peace talks by
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United States
China
Europe
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsMar 31, 2025 | 00:13 GMT
2025 Second-Quarter Forecast
Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.
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SnapshotsMar 27, 2025 | 18:00 GMT
People in Istanbul, Turkey, walk past a currency exchange board showing the Turkish lira, which fell to historic lows against the dollar upon the news of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's arrest on March 19, 2025.
Turkey's Efforts To Stabilize Markets Amid Protests May Not Be Sustainable
Turkey's policy of stabilizing the lira's exchange rate amid widespread protests may not prove sustainable and could force Ankara to allow for a significant depreciation, which would prove unpopular by leading to higher inflation and/or interest rates. The March 19 arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu -- a key rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the 2028 presidential election -- has triggered widespread pro-democracy protests in major cities across Turkey over the past week. The political crisis has also rattled markets by injecting more uncertainty into the country's economic and financial outlook, which has led to a surge in capital outflows. Instead of letting the Turkish lira's exchange rate adjust, the central bank has decided to stabilize the currency by selling a significant amount of foreign exchange reserves. But this is a high-risk strategy, as continued capital outflows eventually overwhelm the bank's ability to maintain exchange rate
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Turkey
Economics
Politics
Situation ReportMar 27, 2025 | 17:15 GMT
Europe, Ukraine: Europe To Maintain Sanctions on Russia, Pursue Reassurance Force in Ukraine
At the end of a summit of European leaders in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron said during a press conference that participants had unanimously agreed to maintain sanctions on Russia and increase military aid to Ukraine, with France pledging an additional 2 billion euros ($2 billion), Le Monde reported on March 27.
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Europe
Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsMar 26, 2025 | 18:04 GMT
Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy's Minister of the Environment and Energy Security, discusses a new draft law on nuclear energy with the press at Palazzo Chigi on Feb. 28, 2025, in Rome, Italy.
The Challenges Facing Italy's Nuclear Comeback
Italy is seeking to return to nuclear power in a bid to bolster its energy security, cut carbon emissions and reduce electricity prices, but the eventual revival of a nuclear program will take years to materialize and likely face potential public opposition and technical constraints. On Feb. 28, the Italian government approved a draft law that, if passed by parliament, would give it a mandate to adopt detailed legislation for the reintroduction of nuclear power, including for the establishment of a national nuclear program, the commissioning of scientific research, the training of a specialized workforce, and the creation of independent safety authority to regulate and supervise nuclear infrastructure. Rather than returning to past large-scale reactors, the draft calls for a focus on fusion and next-generation fission technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs) and fourth-generation reactors. Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said he expects the law to be
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Italy
Energy
Politics
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