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AssessmentsMar 19, 2026 | 18:54 GMT
Danish Defense Minister and top candidate of Denmark's Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen (left), and Danish Prime Minister and top candidate of the Social Democrat Party, Mette Frederiksen (right), attend a debate in Copenhagen on March 15, 2026.
Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Denmark will hold parliamentary elections on March 24. The campaign has been shaped by debates over welfare, taxation, migration and the pace of the green transition, as well as tensions surrounding U.S. demands over Greenland. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the election while seeking to capitalize on a partial rebound in support linked in part to her defiant handling of Washington's pressure on Greenland. However, any new government will likely adopt a somewhat more conciliatory tone in an effort to contain tensions, prevent further escalation and reach a compromise if possible. Meanwhile, the governing center-left Social Democrats, center-right Venstre and centrist Moderates remain weakened by years of cross-bloc compromise and voter fatigue. Polling suggests the election is unlikely to produce a clean or ideologically cohesive majority, leaving coalition-building dependent on broad alliances or issue-based support from smaller and potentially opposition parties.
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Greenland
Denmark
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 19, 2026 | 18:22 GMT
A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.
Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are reducing global supplies and increasing costs of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal stress for agricultural producers if the Iran conflict persists for several more weeks. The ongoing disruption to shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war is rattling global fertilizer markets by constraining supply, driving up logistics costs and increasing energy prices. The Gulf region is a critical hub for global fertilizer trade, making any interference highly consequential. Roughly one-third of all internationally traded fertilizers and nearly half of traded urea volumes are either produced in the region or rely on its transit routes. Specifically, the Gulf accounts for around 45% of global urea exports, roughly 30% of ammonia exports and around 25% of phosphate fertilizers. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normally carries around
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsMar 18, 2026 | 19:32 GMT
A man fills up his truck at a Petroleum Sarawak Berhad (Petros) station in Kuching, Malaysia, on June 20, 2025.
Malaysia's Ballooning Fuel Subsidy Costs Will Test the Government's Reform Agenda
Malaysia is absorbing the Iran war's energy shock through fuel subsidies, but if higher prices persist, the government may have to sacrifice economic reforms to preserve political support ahead of the next election. Following the onset of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran on Feb. 28 and the resulting disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Malaysia has sought to shield domestic consumers from rising global fuel costs by maintaining subsidized gasoline prices. On March 11, Malaysia's finance ministry confirmed that the government would keep the price of RON95 gasoline at roughly $0.51 per liter (RM1.99) under the BUDI95 targeted subsidy program, thereby preventing higher global oil prices from passing through to consumers. The decision significantly increased government spending on fuel subsidies as the state compensates fuel retailers for the gap between fixed pump prices and higher market-based costs (albeit with part of the fiscal burden offset by revenues from
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Malaysia
Energy
Politics
AssessmentsMar 17, 2026 | 22:11 GMT
Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.
The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts
A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships through the Strait of Hormuz would likely only commence once the intensity of the Iran conflict dies down, and even then, such a mission would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited resumption of shipping, unless a comprehensive de-escalation agreement is also reached. In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has been increasing pressure on countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has dropped over 90% since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began on Feb. 28. In a March 16 post on Truth Social, Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and "others" to send naval vessels to the Middle East. The following day, he said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if the alliance's members did not help protect commercial ships transiting the strait from Iranian attacks. But despite
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United States
Iran
Europe
Economics
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 17, 2026 | 18:55 GMT
Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021.
Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?
Rwanda is unlikely to press ahead with a complete troop withdrawal from Mozambique for the foreseeable future, but the European Union's refusal to provide fresh funding would raise the prospect of a partial drawdown of Rwandan forces that would portend rising security risks in the northern Cabo Delgado province and could prompt Maputo to expand counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. On March 14, Rwandan Foreign Affairs Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said the Rwandan government was ready to withdraw its troops from Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province, where they are stationed to combat a jihadist insurgency, if Kiagli's "efforts and achievements [were] not appreciated." This came after Bloomberg reported on March 12 that funding from the European Union for Rwanda's military deployment in Cabo Delgado is set to expire in May and that EU officials have not yet planned any discussions on a possible renewal. Prior to the Bloomberg report, the
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Mozambique
Rwanda
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 16, 2026 | 19:38 GMT
Smoke plumes rise above a village in southern Lebanon following Israeli airstrikes on March 16, 2026.
Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push
Any negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are unlikely to resolve fundamental disputes, meaning the most likely scenario in the coming weeks is an escalation in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. On March 16, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the start of large ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, escalating the renewed fighting with Hezbollah that erupted on March 2 amid Israel and the United States' ongoing war with Iran. Two days earlier, Axios reported that France had drafted a diplomatic framework aimed at ending the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war and preventing a prolonged Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon. The proposal reportedly calls for direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, facilitated by France and potentially supported by the United States, with the goal of reaching a political declaration within approximately one month. The reported framework would see both sides reaffirm their commitment to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which
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Israel
Lebanon
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 13, 2026 | 20:22 GMT
A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.
In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits
Despite the two countries' mutual defense agreement, Pakistan will likely avoid direct military intervention in support of Saudi Arabia against Iranian strikes and instead limit its role to defensive and technical support given the risk of Iranian retaliation, domestic sectarian tensions, economic pressures and Pakistan's ongoing conflict with the Afghan Taliban; yet a more active role from Islamabad remains possible if Iranian attacks were to seriously threaten Saudi energy infrastructure or the kingdom's broader stability. Following Iran's recent missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been coordinating closely in the context of their new mutual defense agreement, signed in September. On March 7, Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, met with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in Riyadh to discuss potential joint actions under the agreement, which stipulates that an attack on one country is considered an attack on both. Days later, on
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Iran
Saudi Arabia
Pakistan
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 12, 2026 | 19:55 GMT
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.
Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran
In an extended conflict with Iran, the United States could escalate by deploying ground forces ranging from limited commando raids to a full-scale invasion. But while small special operations missions are the most viable option, larger incursions or regime-change operations would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support. With the air war unlikely to result in a decisive victory for either side, the United States has threatened to further escalate with ground operations inside Iran, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he does not want to take any options off the table. A ground operation could run the gamut, from a limited commando raid with narrow and specific objectives with a few dozen forces, to an incursion with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and limited regional diplomatic buy-in, to a full-scale invasion to topple the regime,
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United States
Iran
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 18:20 GMT
People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.
Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions
The Iran war risks fueling sectarian tensions in Bahrain and further straining its economy due to disruptions to energy and aluminum exports. Other Gulf countries may choose security and economic intervention to stabilize the country, with a financial package potentially conditioned on further fiscal consolidation efforts. Bahraini authorities have been cracking down on protesters and government critics following domestic protests after the Feb. 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. The protests, a rare instance of civil unrest in the kingdom, have involved at least hundreds of participants from the majority Shiite Bahrain population and extended to cities and villages throughout the country. While the majority of protests were peaceful, some protesters threw Molotov cocktails and clashed with Bahraini security forces, resulting in several dozen arrests. Although Bahraini authorities have limited publicity of the demonstrations, security forces' arrests and government measures
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Bahrain
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
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