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AssessmentsOct 28, 2024 | 21:37 GMT
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a plenary session at the lower house of parliament on Oct. 9, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan.
Japan's LDP Loses Its Majority in Snap Ballot, Portending Policy Gridlock
Despite losing its parliamentary majority in snap elections, Japan's ruling coalition will likely stay in power but will face greater legislative gridlock and a higher probability for rapid turnover in the role of premier in 2025, while in a low likelihood scenario, an opposition government would result in even more legislative gridlock and could strain U.S. defense and economic ties. The Oct. 27 snap elections for the powerful lower house of Japan's Diet saw the ruling coalition of the big-tent, conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its center-right minor coalition partner Komeito, lose its majority, dropping from a combined 288 seats to 215 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives. Within that total, the LDP dropped from 255 to 191 seats and Komeito from 32 to 24. Meanwhile, the main opposition party, the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), gained 50 seats, rising to a total of 148, while the right-wing
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Japan
Politics
AssessmentsOct 28, 2024 | 20:30 GMT
Pakistan's president administers the oath of office to Justice Yahya Afridi as Afridi is sworn in as chief justice in Islamabad on Oct. 26, 2024.
The Implications of Pakistan's Controversial Judicial Reform
In Pakistan, a controversial judicial reform will grant the government more influence over the nation's top court by allowing it to appoint judges who align with its agenda, which will threaten the independence of the judiciary, deepen political polarization and likely provoke unrest. On Oct. 21, Pakistan's president signed the 26th Constitutional Amendment Bill into law after Parliament approved it. The bill removes the Supreme Court's ability to initiate cases on its own, establishes a three-year term limit for the chief justice of Pakistan, and authorizes a new special parliamentary committee to appoint the next chief justice from the three senior-most judges on the Supreme Court. Shortly after the bill's ratification, parliamentary leaders nominated lawmakers to sit on the 12-member special committee, with eight from the lower house (the National Assembly) and four from the upper house (the Senate). The committee then selected Justice Yahya Afridi to serve as Pakistan's
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Pakistan
Politics
SnapshotsOct 26, 2024 | 12:41 GMT
A general view of Tehran after several explosions amid an Israeli attack were heard there Oct. 26, 2024.
Israel's Measured Attack on Iran Calibrated to Avoid a Response
Israel's restrained attack against Iran decreases the risk of an all-out war between the two, though future miscalculations and the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon mean the risk of another escalation persists. In the early hours of Oct. 26, the Israel Defense Forces' spokesperson announced via a televised address that dozens of Israeli fighter jets conducted "precise strikes" against "military targets" in Iran. Before the announcement, numerous explosions were reported around Iran's capital Tehran, specifically its western sector where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, headquarters is based, and the city of Karaj in the northwest. The operation was reportedly conducted in three waves, with the first focused on defeating Iran's air defense system, while the second and third waves targeted missile and drone bases and weapons production sites. Iranian state media outlets including Tasnim News Agency downplayed the attack, claiming air defenses repelled attacks on Tehran, Khuzestan
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Iran
Iraq
Israel
Syria
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
AssessmentsOct 24, 2024 | 18:52 GMT
Smoke billows from a fire at oil storage tanks in Hodeidah, Yemen, a day after Israeli strikes hit the city’s port on July 21, 2024.
Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen Are Unlikely To Turn Into a Bigger Anti-Houthi Campaign
Israel's distance from Yemen and expanded military operations in Lebanon will very likely preclude an expanded, sustained Israeli air campaign against the Houthis, while sporadic Israeli strikes on Houthi-linked targets only risk emboldening the group to attack Israel more frequently. The Israeli military has struck targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen twice in recent months after the Houthis used drones and missiles to attack south and central Israel with increasing accuracy compared with earlier in the Israel-Hamas war. The first Israeli airstrike occurred on July 20, a day after the Houthis launched a fatal drone attack on Tel Aviv that killed one Israeli civilian and injured at least 10 more, marking the first fatal Houthi attack on Israeli soil. Israel's retaliatory attack targeted the port city of Hodeidah, damaging a power plant and a Yemen Petroleum Company fuel storage facility, killing 14 individuals, and injuring more than 90 others. Israel's second attack
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Israel
Yemen
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
AssessmentsOct 23, 2024 | 14:20 GMT
The Hywind Tampen floating offshore wind farm, situated between energy company Equinor's oil and gas fields Snorre and Gullfaks in the Norwegian North Sea off the coast of Bergen.
Russia's Increasingly Aggressive Sabotage Threatens Europe's Offshore Energy Network
Although Russia is growing more likely to target Europe's offshore energy infrastructure, Moscow will likely seek to avoid excessive economic or societal disruptions that would significantly heighten escalatory risks. In recent weeks, European governments and media have warned of increasingly aggressive and dangerous actions from Russia in its now months-long sabotage, espionage and destabilization campaign across the Continent. On Oct. 14, Thomas Haldewang, head of Germany's domestic intelligence service, warned the German parliament about "aggressive behavior" by the Russian intelligence services, noting a rise in both the quantity and sophistication of espionage and sabotage operations by Russian actors in Germany and stressing that Moscow is willing to "put human lives at risk" as part of these activities. Striking a similar tone, Ken McCallum, head of the United Kingdom's domestic security and counter-intelligence agency MI5, noted on Oct. 8 that Russia's military intelligence agency GRU is conducting sabotage operations in the
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Germany
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
Russia
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsOct 22, 2024 | 21:24 GMT
A picture taken on Sept. 30, 2024, shows a fire over an area of southern Lebanon following an Israeli bombardment.
How Will the Israel-Hezbollah War Evolve?
Hezbollah and Israel are entering a new phase of conflict that will likely lead to a protracted war of attrition that, despite Israel's expanding ground and aerial campaign, favors Hezbollah in the long term if the group can tie down Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. On Oct. 20, Israeli fighter jets struck dozens of buildings across Lebanon, including in Beirut's suburbs, targeting branches of the Hezbollah-run bank Al-Qard Al-Hasan, hours after the Israeli military announced a new phase of targeting the Lebanese political and militant group's banks and financial infrastructure. The Israeli attacks came a day after Hezbollah launched three drones, one of which struck Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence in the central seaside town of Caesarea; Netanyahu and his wife were not at their residence at the time of the attack, but the drone strike marked the first time since the beginning of the war that a target
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Israel
Lebanon
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
AssessmentsOct 22, 2024 | 19:16 GMT
A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland.
Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry
While Russia and Ukraine are interested in a natural gas transit agreement allowing continued gas deliveries to Europe, a deal would require the involvement of Azerbaijan or another third party and faces significant commercial, political and tactical constraints that make it ultimately unlikely by year's end. On Dec. 31, Ukraine's natural gas transit agreement with Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom will expire. The five-year deal is set to deliver around 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to buyers in the European Union in 2024, though these flows through Ukraine now account for less than 5% of the Continent's gas supplies. Ukraine does not intend to renew the agreement but is negotiating with Azerbaijan and European buyers for an alternative deal with Gazprom, which would likely involve gas swaps, to keep around 10 bcm per year of gas flowing. Specifically, Ukraine's government is pursuing a commercial contract with Azerbaijan's state
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Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsOct 21, 2024 | 21:52 GMT
An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.
The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government
The close results of Moldova's constitutional referendum on EU membership raise the risk of a pro-Russian government taking office in 2025 that would end Moldova's European integration and potentially complicate neighboring Ukraine's resistance to Russia's ongoing invasion. On Oct. 20, Moldova held the first round of its presidential election and a concurrent referendum on adding the country's aspirations to join the European Union to its constitution. Pro-European President Maia Sandu won the presidential ballot after receiving 42% of the vote, with second place going to pro-Russian challenger Alexandr Stoianoglo, who received 26%. But Sandu's failure to secure at least 50% in the first round means she will compete against Stoianoglo in a runoff vote on Nov. 3. Meanwhile, the constitutional referendum just barely passed, with only 50.4% voting in favor of securing Moldova's course toward EU membership and 49.6% voting against it. The razor-thin margin of victory -- and particularly
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Ukraine
Russia
Moldova
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 18, 2024 | 20:16 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the BRICS Business Forum on Oct. 18, 2024, in Moscow, Russia.
Russia's Goals for the BRICS Summit Will Likely Go Unrealized
Despite host nation Russia's desire to speed progress on key issues like future expansion, de-dollarization and greater financial integration, internal disagreements mean the 2024 BRICS summit is unlikely to yield major breakthroughs that seriously challenge the Western-led order in the near term. From Oct. 22-24, Russia will host the 16th BRICS Summit in the southwestern city of Kazan. Russian President Vladimir Putin effectively opened the summit's associated gatherings on Oct. 18, when he addressed the BRICS Business Forum in Moscow. Overall, the summit and associated gatherings will constitute the largest and most momentous foreign policy event held in Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Moscow claims that of the 38 countries invited to the summit, 32 have confirmed their participation and 24 will be represented by heads of state, with the 9 BRICS members all represented at the highest level. Moscow's ambitious agenda for the summit includes the creation
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China
Russia
Economics
Politics
Situation ReportOct 18, 2024 | 19:38 GMT
North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: North Korean Forces Training in Russia To Participate in War With Ukraine
South Korea's National Intelligence Service confirmed North Korea decided to send four brigades with a total of 12,000 troops to support Russia in its war with Ukraine, adding that the North Korean forces had been issued Russian military uniforms, weapons and fake identification documents, Reuters reported on Oct. 18.
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North Korea
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsOct 17, 2024 | 21:19 GMT
People are reflected in a window displaying a poster of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Palestinian camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8, 2024, in Beirut, Lebanon.
What Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar's Death Means for the Gaza War
In the aftermath of Yahya Sinwar's assassination, Hamas' choice of new leadership will indicate whether the group is prepared to shift to pragmatism or remain hawkish, and if it is beginning to fragment. Meanwhile, Israel's government will face renewed political pressure to reach a cease-fire with Hamas, which will manifest in more substantial protests and strikes across the country. On Oct. 17, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a combat operation outside Rafah in the Gaza Strip the previous day. Sinwar's identity was confirmed through DNA testing. Sinwar had been on the run from Israeli forces since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, assault on Israel, and Israeli forces reportedly stumbled upon him in a fighting position on Oct. 16. The Palestinian militant group reportedly has begun taking steps within its political bureau to elect new leadership in the
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 15, 2024 | 21:49 GMT
Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024.
India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low
Canada's latest allegations against India will worsen already strained relations, reducing the possibility of near-term reconciliation and increasing the likelihood of consular service limitations, travel disruptions for Indian employees and protests from activist groups, though bilateral trade will likely remain mostly unaffected. On Oct. 14, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) accused Indian diplomats and consular staff in Canada of using their official roles for covert activities on Canadian soil, including by working with organized crime groups to sponsor murders, extortion and intimidation targeting Indian dissidents and the broader South Asian community in Canada. RCMP also accused India of interfering in democratic processes, though they did not provide specifics. Amid these allegations, the Canadian government announced the same day that six Indian diplomats and consular officials -- including High Commissioner Sanjay Verma, the country's top diplomat in Canada -- had been formally expelled from the country. Canada's foreign minister, Melanie Joly,
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Canada
India
Economics
Politics
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