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SITUATION REPORTApr 12, 2021 | 19:25 GMT

China: Government Fines Alibaba $2.8 Billion, Increases Scrutiny of Ant Group's Activities

China’s central bank demanded Ant Group subject its financial activities to Beijing regulators and address financial risks after China’s State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) levied a record $2.8 billion antitrust fine against Ant Group subsidiary Alibaba for limiting e-commerce competition and harming the interests of sellers and consumers, Bloomberg reported April 12.

China in Transition

SITUATION REPORTApr 6, 2021 | 19:30 GMT

Caribbean: Eastern Caribbean Becomes First Currency Union to Launch a Digital Currency

The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) has launched a digitalized version of the Eastern Caribbean dollar called “DCash,” making it the world’s first currency union to implement such a blockchain-based currency, AP reported April 1.

Antigua and Barbuda

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Quarterly ForecastsMar 29, 2021 | 00:00 GMT

2021 Second-Quarter Forecast

COVID-19 will again dominate in the second quarter of 2021. With new viral variants and staggered or stalled vaccine rollouts, the global economic rebound will be uneven around the world.

SnapshotsMar 9, 2021 | 22:49 GMT

A photo illustration displays Twitter and Facebook’s logos on a computer screen.

Russia Tightens the Reins on Foreign Social Media Firms

Russian officials are increasing legal and financial pressure on foreign social media firms in order to exert more political control over the spread of information in the country to help maintain their power. On March 8, the chairman of the lower house of Russia’s parliament called for new laws to “protect digital sovereignty” after Facebook blocked access to articles published by Russian news sites that the U.S. social media company determined were inaccurate. His comments came four days after President Vladimir Putin called for the internet in Russia to be bound by “moral laws” and alleged that social media is exposing children to explicit and inappropriate information, including about recent anti-government protests. Russian officials have widely blamed foreign social media for supposedly undermining stability by spreading information to foment recent unrest.

Russia's Internal Struggle

SnapshotsMar 5, 2021 | 21:18 GMT

Riot police approach protesters' barricades in an attempt to disperse a March 4, 2021, demonstration in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, against the military coup.

On Myanmar, Washington Moves Cautiously to Avoid Losing More Ground to China

Without the prospect of international cooperation, the United States is proceeding cautiously with pressure on Myanmar's military government in spite of a week of deadly crackdowns on anti-coup protesters. For now, it is stopping short even from imposing sectoral or deeper country-level trade restrictions, to say nothing of more aggressive financial sanctions, in order to keep Chinese influence in Myanmar from growing.

On SecurityMar 2, 2021 | 19:09 GMT

A visitor takes photos at the 2020 World Semiconductor Conference on Aug. 26, 2020, in Nanjing in China's eastern Jiangsu province of a chip made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

Understanding Economic Espionage: The Future

The current geopolitical order, advances in technology and the importance of maintaining competitive advantages favor more economic espionage in the future.

On SecurityMar 1, 2021 | 22:20 GMT

Protesters clash with riot police during a rally in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Moscow, Russia, on Jan. 23, 2021. Navalny was detained upon returning to Moscow after spending five months in Germany recovering from a near-fatal poisoning.

Russia: A Case Study on the Proliferation of Repression Tactics

Since the beginning of 2021, high-profile protests in diverse locations across the globe have called attention to the tactics governments are using to try to deter, disrupt and reduce the influence of mass demonstrations. Russia’s response to the widespread protests triggered by the arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, in particular, provides a poignant case study on how authorities are increasingly using a wider array of counter-protest tactics beyond physical repression, with implications for security and stability in places where there is significant protest activity.

Hong Kong SAR, China

Russia's Internal Struggle

SITUATION REPORTMar 1, 2021 | 17:40 GMT

Global: G-20 to Maintain COVID-19 Stimulus, Resume Talks on Digital Taxes

Group of 20 (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors agreed to resume negotiations for an international agreement on taxing digital services, as well as a new allocation of international reserve assets known as Special Drawing Rights (SDR) issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to aid world’s poorest economies amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Bloomberg reported Feb. 26

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

SnapshotsFeb 26, 2021 | 16:31 GMT

EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni speaks during a press conference after a virtual meeting at the European Council in Brussels, Belgium, on Feb. 15, 2021.

The EU Moves Ahead With a Corporate Tax Transparency Plan

The European Union will move forward with a plan to force large multinational companies to be more transparent about the taxes that they pay in every member state. This measure will likely expose the special (and unpopular) deals that small countries often offer to corporations and, indirectly, increase EU pressure for higher taxation of digital companies. The Portuguese government, which holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, announced on Feb. 25 that it has secured enough support from member states to move forward with a plan to force multinationals with revenue of more than 750 million euros that operate in the bloc to reveal their tax payments and activities for each member state. The proposal will now move to the European Council and the European Parliament, which means that it could be months before it is enforced. Opponents to the plan, which include Luxembourg and Ireland, could challenge its

EU: Regional Blocs

The Fate of the Eurozone

AssessmentsFeb 24, 2021 | 22:33 GMT

A picture taken in London on Dec. 18, 2020, shows the logos of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft displayed on a mobile phone and laptop screen.

With Democrats in Power, the U.S. Push Against Big Tech Grows

As momentum builds in the United States for landmark antitrust legislation and lawsuits on Big Tech companies, potential changes to U.S. mergers law and limits on growth avenues for large tech firms like Google could impact U.S. dominance in the global tech space, increasing competition with Chinese and European firms. On Feb. 4, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, the new chair of the Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights, introduced a new bill aimed at updating the United States’ antitrust laws. The so-called Competition and Antitrust Law Enforcement Reform Act (CALERA) proposes giving more resources to antitrust investigators, as well as rewriting the way that mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are reviewed over antitrust concerns. Although it has not yet been presented to U.S. President Joe Biden, the draft bill does give hints about how the new Democratic-led government could treat antitrust law reforms and tackle Big Tech.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

On SecurityFeb 23, 2021 | 11:00 GMT

Deputy Attorney General Jeffery A. Rosen on Sept. 16, 2020, at the Department of Justice in Washington talks about charges and arrests related to computer intrusion campaign tied to Chinese government the group called 'APT 41.'

Understanding Economic Espionage: The Present

Economic espionage will continue to pose a threat to companies and the countries that benefit from their work for years to come.

On SecurityFeb 19, 2021 | 15:40 GMT

The lobby of CIA headquarters on Aug. 14, 2008, in Langley, Virginia.

When Government Intelligence Agencies Encounter Nonstate Competitors

Nongovernmental actors that conduct intelligence collection, analysis and operations increasingly are being shown to operate in parallel and at times in place of traditional intelligence agencies. This creates a more complex informational, analytic and operational environment that offers tradeoffs for policymakers.

SnapshotsFeb 18, 2021 | 21:48 GMT

In this photo illustration, a message is seen on Facebook mobile on Feb. 18, 2021, in Melbourne, Australia.

Facebook Pulls News Feed in Message to Australia, and Governments Worldwide

Australia's proposed media code requiring Facebook and Google to pay for content from Australian media companies has prompted Facebook to pull some services as a message to Australia's government that it has overstepped the line.

SITUATION REPORTFeb 10, 2021 | 20:51 GMT

Mexico: Proposed Law Would Fine Social Media Firms for Violating Free Speech

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party proposed a new law that would subject social media companies to fines of up to $4.4 million for violating users’ rights to free speech, the AP reported Feb. 9.

The Importance of Mexico

PodcastsFeb 5, 2021 | 16:09 GMT

RANE Insights: How SolarWinds Became the Hack That Keeps on Taking

In this podcast, RANE Founder David Lawrence speaks with Robert Knake, a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who also served as director for cybersecurity policy at the National Security Council, about new revelations about the SolarWinds hack.

SnapshotsJan 22, 2021 | 22:03 GMT

A photo taken on Oct. 21, 2020, shows the logos (left to right) of Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok on a computer screen.

Australia’s Proposed Media Code Turns Up the Heat on Google and Facebook

Australia’s pursuit of a media code that would force Facebook and Google to pay for sharing content from local media companies risks pushing the U.S. tech giants to pull some of their services from the country. During a Jan. 22 Australian Senate hearing, Google’s Managing Director for Australia and New Zealand Mel Silva said that if the country’s News Media and Digital Platforms Mandatory Bargaining Code is implemented in its current form, Google would have no choice but to remove Google Search from Australia. Later in the day, Facebook representatives echoed these remarks, threatening to pull Facebook News from Australia. In response to Google’s ultimatum, Prime Minister Morrison said that his country does not respond to threats.

SnapshotsJan 21, 2021 | 22:07 GMT

Spanish newspapers show images of newly sworn-in U.S. President Joe Biden on Jan. 21, 2021, in Madrid, Spain.

The EU Welcomes Biden, But Some Disputes Will Remain

Joe Biden’s presidency portends greater U.S.-EU coordination on areas like climate change, COVID-19 and human rights. But Washington and Brussels will likely still spar over trade, tech policy and defense spending. On the day of Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration, European Council President Charles Michel called for a “founding pact” between the United States and the European Union based on five priorities: boosting multilateral cooperation, fighting against COVID-19, tackling climate change, rebuilding the global economy with a digital transformation, and joining forces on security and peace. Also on Jan. 20, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Joseph Borrell, invited Biden’s new Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to a meeting with EU foreign ministers in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 4-5 to restart cooperation.

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

SnapshotsJan 11, 2021 | 20:30 GMT

Members of the National Guard and the District of Columbia police keep a small group of protesters at bay after thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building following a 'Stop the Steal' rally on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington.

Big Tech's Actions After the U.S. Capitol Siege Renew Debate Over Its Power

Large technology firms' content-moderation decisions in the wake of the violent siege of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 will add to long-standing debates regarding their influence over online speech, which may accelerate global regulatory action.

SITUATION REPORTJan 8, 2021 | 18:36 GMT

U.S., France: Washington Suspends Tariffs Over French Tech Tax

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has indefinitely suspended the 25% tariffs on imports of French goods it recently imposed in retaliation against France’s digital services tax (DST), which Washington argues unfairly targets U.S. tech companies, Reuters reported Jan. 7.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Annual ForecastsJan 3, 2021 | 21:37 GMT

2021 Annual Forecast

The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe.

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