AssessmentsOct 17, 2025 | 19:22 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
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Situation ReportOct 16, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Madagascar: African Union Suspends Madagascar Over Military Coup
The African Union announced the suspension of Madagascar's membership from the continental bloc in response to the Malagasy military's Oct. 14 coup, warned of sanctions against the country's new military rulers and called for a civilian-led transitional government that organizes new elections as soon as possible, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 16.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 16, 2025 | 18:29 GMT
The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire
The ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war will temporarily ease regional diplomatic tensions and free Israeli military resources for other fronts, but a collapse in the coming phases would almost certainly reignite conflict with Hamas, cause diplomatic friction with regional powers and risk a wider escalation involving Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran. On Oct. 15, Israel and Hamas entered negotiations over the second phase of the U.S.-backed 20-point Gaza peace plan that they reached on Oct. 8 as tensions flared over Israel's accusations that Hamas was not complying with the first phase by not releasing enough bodies of Israeli hostages. On Oct. 15, Israel announced that while three bodies handed over by Hamas the previous day were those of Israeli hostages, a fourth body was not. Meanwhile, mediators began discussing the deployment of an initial 1,000-strong Palestinian police force, trained by Egypt and Jordan, to help manage security in Gaza under
READ MORESnapshotsOct 15, 2025 | 18:16 GMT
Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar
In Madagascar, President Andry Rajoelina's ousting in a military coup on the back of widespread Gen Z protests will likely inspire demonstrators elsewhere in Africa and de-escalate political tensions in the near term, though protests risk resurging thereafter due to disagreements over the transition period. On Oct. 14, Col. Michael Randrianirina of the Personnel and Services Administration Corps unit of the army, or CAPSAT, announced that the military would take over government affairs, suspend the constitution and dissolve most state institutions with the exception of the National Assembly, the country's lower house. Randrianirina's announcement, which effectively marked a coup in the island nation, came just after the National Assembly impeached Rajoelina, who was exfiltrated by the French military from the country on Oct. 12. Despite its announced dissolution, Madagascar's High Constitutional Court subsequently called on Randrianirina to serve as head of state on an interim basis and for presidential elections
READ MORESnapshotsOct 14, 2025 | 15:43 GMT
Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote
With Bolivia's presidential runoff on Oct. 19 pitting two right-wingers against each other, austerity measures and a foreign policy realignment toward the West are certain, but persisting risks of unrest and a potential future rollback of pro-business measures could extend current high debt and challenges to the country's investment attractiveness. Bolivia will hold its first-ever presidential runoff election on Oct. 19. Right-wing former President Jorge Quiroga of the Freedom and Democracy Alliance (Libre) will face off against center-right Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC). The vote follows general elections on Aug. 17, in which Bolivia's ruling left-wing Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party lost control of the legislative branch and was eliminated from the presidential race. In the first round of the presidential election, Paz received 31% of the vote and Quiroga 26.7%. Pre-election polling for the runoff has indicated that Quiroga is leading. Unitel reported in
READ MORESnapshotsOct 9, 2025 | 14:07 GMT
After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?
An initial deal between Hamas and Israel to wind down the war in Gaza will decrease violence in the short term as both sides are likely to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, but over time talks on Gaza's future are likely to stall because of disagreements over more contentious topics, likely leading to a low-intensity conflict and potentially return to full-scale war. On Oct. 8, Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement in the Egyptian city of Sharm el Sheikh. The deal calls for a temporary halt to hostilities (with a partial ceasefire being announced early on Oct. 9), a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces to a defined line in the Gaza Strip and a hostage-prisoner exchange. In this opening phase, which is expected to occur in the coming days, Hamas will release the roughly 20 remaining Israeli hostages believed to
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsOct 8, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation
For the 77 years since the State of Israel's founding, the question of Palestine's future has fueled many, if not most, major conflicts in the Middle East. Those who argue it should be a single state have traditionally also advocated for the destruction of Israel along the way, spurring the great Israeli-Arab wars of the past, and the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault in 2023. Proponents of a single Palestinian state have traditionally also advocated for Israel's destruction, spurring the great Israeli-Arab wars of the past, and the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault in 2023. Conversely, those pushing for a two-state solution, while seemingly offering a path to compromise and peace, have failed to find a path to defuse the revanchism of far-right Palestinians and the expansionist aims of far-right Israelis. This has inadvertently given ground to these very same one-state advocates, who prefer to use war to achieve their aims. But
READ MORESituation ReportOct 7, 2025 | 16:16 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Latest Ceasefire Negotiations Begin Ahead of Two-Year Gaza War Anniversary
Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel began in Egypt, with some, including Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, expressing optimism about the progress of discussions, The Guardian reported on Oct. 6.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsOct 7, 2025 | 15:34 GMT
Political Instability Roils South Asia
The growing momentum of youth-led and anti-elite movements across South Asia signals that political transitions in the region are far from settled. As traditional power structures weaken, new political actors are emerging. Governments will likely face increasing pressure to demonstrate democratic accountability and deliver economic gains despite fiscal constraints, heightening the risk of policy volatility and unevenly distributed benefits. Over the longer term, these shifts could reshape the region's political order, encouraging greater popular participation and institutional reform while straining governments' capacity to maintain cohesion and deliver consistent policy outcomes.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 6, 2025 | 19:44 GMT
Syria: First Results From Parliamentary Election Show Limited Representation for Women, Minorities
The preliminary results of Syria's Oct. 5 indirect parliamentary elections show that women and ethnic/religious minorities only won around 15 of 119 seats on the ballot, indicating that the legislature will be overwhelmingly dominated by Sunni men, Reuters reported Oct. 6.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 3, 2025 | 15:15 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is likely to remain a high-risk location for sourcing critical minerals in the coming years, sustaining various legal, financial and reputational pressures. The potential easing of Western regulations could temporarily reduce these risks, though it would also incentivize due diligence shortcuts that increase exposure to conflict-linked minerals over time. According to numerous metrics, Congo is the world's highest-risk location for so-called "conflict minerals," meaning those extracted from areas experiencing typically prolonged conflict often driven by competition over resources, intercommunal violence, proxy wars and insurgencies. The conditions under which these minerals are extracted often include human rights violations, at times spanning from their initial extraction process through to their final sale. In Congo, conflict minerals are concentrated mainly in the eastern region, an area home to more than 120 armed groups. Within eastern Congo, the most common conflict minerals are tin, tungsten and tantalum --
READ MORESnapshotsOct 1, 2025 | 17:13 GMT
Even With PAS Victory, Moldova's Road to EU Membership Remains Long
Moldova's incumbent pro-EU government retained its parliamentary majority in elections on Sept. 28, reaffirming the country's European path, though progress is likely to be slow, depending on Chisinau's ability to implement credible reforms and resist Russian pressure and domestic skepticism. President Maia Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity, or PAS, won just over half the vote in the closely watched parliamentary election on Sept. 28, a result that defied pre-election polling that had forecast a much tighter contest with the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc. Instead, strong showings by smaller pro-European groups, including the Democracy at Home Party, mean that together they will command at least 61 out of 101 seats, giving Sandu's administration a majority pro-EU coalition in parliament following polls that were widely viewed as a referendum on the country's continuing alignment with the West. EU leaders hailed the outcome as a mandate for reforms. The bloc is preparing to
READ MORESituation ReportOct 1, 2025 | 16:34 GMT
EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Discuss Ukraine's Membership, Drone Wall, Sanctions
EU leaders gathered in Copenhagen, Denmark, to discuss the possible use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, plans to build a "drone wall" on NATO's eastern flank, proposals to accelerate Ukraine's EU membership process and next steps to impose more sanctions on Russia, Politico reported on Oct. 1.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 1, 2025 | 16:29 GMT
Ukraine, Russia: Europe's Largest Nuclear Plant Teeters as Power Cut Extends Beyond a Week
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine has been without external electricity since Sept. 23, when its last remaining power line was severed during fighting, Reuters reported on Oct. 1.
READ MOREAssessmentsSep 30, 2025 | 20:16 GMT
U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?
Iran's initial response to the snapback of U.N. sanctions will likely be pragmatic, but over time, the economic fallout from the sanctions could prompt Tehran to double down on its relationships with Russia and China, fuel social unrest within Iran, and strengthen the political influence of Iranian hard-liners who are calling for more aggressive action against the West. Wide-ranging U.N. sanctions against Iran were formally reimposed on Sept. 28. This action followed months of unsuccessful negotiations between Iran and the West, and also came after a last-ditch effort by China and Russia to delay the sanctions was defeated in a U.N. Security Council vote two days prior, with the United States and European powers opposing the delay. The reimposition of U.N. sanctions was widely anticipated after Europe's so-called E3 countries -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- triggered the sanctions snapback provision in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally
READ MOREAssessmentsSep 26, 2025 | 16:29 GMT
The Implications of a Syria-Israel De-Escalation Agreement
Syria and Israel will likely ink a security pact to ease border tensions by the end of the year, but the deal's likely narrow scope and other unresolved disputes will keep it fragile and at elevated risk of collapse in the months ahead. In recent days, U.S. officials have signaled that Syria and Israel are finalizing a pact to de-escalate their border tensions, with special U.S. envoy to Syria Tom Barrack noting on Sept. 24 that both sides were ''closing in'' on an agreement to restrict Syria's stationing of heavy weapons near the border in exchange for Israel halting attacks on Syria. Barrack's comment came shortly after Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa's high-profile meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York on Sept. 23, where the two discussed counterterrorism cooperation and progress in security talks with Israel. On Sept. 18, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani traveled to Washington
READ MOREAssessmentsSep 25, 2025 | 19:36 GMT
The West's Growing Support for Palestinian Statehood Will Have Limited Concrete Impacts
Western countries' growing recognition of Palestinian statehood is largely symbolic and will likely galvanize Israel's push for West Bank annexation, risking further Israeli isolation abroad and sporadic violence at home. Ahead of the start of the high-level debate at the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 21-22, several Western countries -- including Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom -- recognized Palestinian statehood. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called their decisions ''a huge reward to terrorism,'' a sentiment echoed by other senior Israeli officials and U.S. President Donald Trump. Following the series of new recognitions, approximately 80% of U.N. member countries recognize Palestinian statehood.
READ MORESnapshotsSep 19, 2025 | 15:15 GMT
India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances
While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.
READ MORESituation ReportSep 18, 2025 | 20:06 GMT
Nigeria: Tinubu Scraps State of Emergency in Rivers State
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu announced the lifting of a state of emergency in the country's southern Rivers state from Sept. 18 as well as the reinstatement of suspended Gov. Siminalayi Fubara, Reuters reported on Sept. 17.
READ MOREAssessmentsSep 17, 2025 | 19:47 GMT
The Causes and Implications of the Rise in Anti-Tourism Sentiment
Anti-tourism protests -- though generally limited in scale -- are likely to persist and spread to new destinations, increasing the risk of sporadic disruptions, modest policy restrictions on tourism and occasional diplomatic tensions.
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