AssessmentsSep 13, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Qatar Hosts an Arab-Islamic Summit, EU Announces New Sanctions on Russia
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsSep 11, 2025 | 22:08 GMT
How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession
In Kazakhstan, proposed institutional reforms are meant to tighten the regime's hold on power, but they will not guarantee a smooth transition or prevent Russian attempts to manipulate political events once President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev steps down. On Sept. 8, President Tokayev used his annual State of the Nation address to the Parliament to propose constitutional changes that would abolish Kazakhstan's upper chamber, the Senate, and create a unicameral legislature. Framed as the next phase of political reform, Tokayev's proposal calls for at least a year of public debate followed by a nationwide referendum in 2027. In a separate but related step, Tokayev also proposed an electoral change: shifting back to elections conducted exclusively by party lists. Together, these moves mark Kazakhstan's most significant political reform since the January 2022 protests, which triggered constitutional amendments that altered the composition of the Mazhilis, the lower chamber, by reintroducing a mixed electoral system
READ MORESituation ReportSep 4, 2025 | 15:45 GMT
Guyana: President Ali Wins Reelection on Back of Oil Boom
Guyanese President Irfaan Ali was reelected for a second five-year term, with his People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) winning more than twice as many votes as the second-placed party in the country's general election, Reuters reported on Sept. 3.
READ MOREAssessmentsSep 1, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 2
Key maritime chokepoints are vulnerable to a variety of political, security and environmental threats that endanger global shipping and trade. The Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Suez Canal, the Danish and Turkish straits, and the Panama Canal are a handful of the most crucial waterways that the International Monetary Fund lists as essential for international commerce. Because of their centrality to global trade, disruptions to any of these chokepoints would have severe implications for supply chains and the trillions of dollars worth of goods that transit these routes. Such disruptions could be caused by geopolitical tensions like those between NATO and Russia, physical security issues like militancy and piracy, and environmental concerns like drought.
READ MORESnapshotsAug 28, 2025 | 21:49 GMT
Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges
Despite gradual improvements and cautious steps toward economic and border cooperation between India and China, strategic competition will limit the scope for deeper engagement. On Aug. 31, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to China to attend the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Heads of Government Council meeting. This will mark his first visit to China since June 2018, as well as the first since the deadly border clashes between Indian and Chinese troops broke out in the Galwan Valley in mid-2020, which saw bilateral ties plunge to their lowest point in decades.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 27, 2025 | 17:19 GMT
Norway's Legislative Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
The Sept. 8 vote could result in another left-wing coalition focused on welfare and climate, a right-wing coalition focused on tax cuts and oil production, or perhaps even an unprecedented grand coalition between the country's two largest parties.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 26, 2025 | 21:27 GMT
Myanmar's Elections and the Military's Quest for Legitimacy
In Myanmar, the military regime's claimed recapture of an eastern township portends intensified violence ahead of elections, which will be tightly managed and deepen fissures with rebel forces, but could open the door to limited international reengagement after years of civil war. On Aug. 19, Myanmar's military regime announced that its troops had captured Demoso township in eastern Kayah state. This followed weeks of heavy clashes with ethnic Karenni armed groups and pro-democracy militias, which had held parts of the township since the junta seized power in a coup in February 2021. Demoso residents immediately disputed the news, citing ongoing gunfire and bombardment in the area. But the military has nonetheless touted its alleged victory as proof of its ability to claw back rebel-contested areas, and that it retains momentum heading into its newly declared election cycle. Indeed, just days earlier, the regime unveiled its most concrete election plan since
READ MORESituation ReportAug 26, 2025 | 15:50 GMT
Australia, Iran: Canberra Expels Iranian Ambassador Over Alleged Links to Antisemitic Attacks
Australia expelled Iran's ambassador and three other senior diplomats and designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization after the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) determined that Tehran orchestrated at least two arson attacks targeting the Jewish community in Sydney and Melbourne in late 2024, The Australian Financial Review reported Aug. 26.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 25, 2025 | 22:02 GMT
Guyana's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
No matter who wins Guyana's Sept. 1 election, the next administration will use oil revenue and foreign investment to increase social spending and infrastructure development.
READ MORESnapshotsAug 21, 2025 | 22:07 GMT
The Challenges and Opportunities in Saudi Arabia's Mining Sector
Saudi Arabia's mining sector will likely struggle to attract significant foreign investment. which will constrain its growth, though certain resources closely linked to the kingdom's robust oil industry, such as lithium, are expected to fare better. As its ambitious Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy enters the home stretch, Saudi Arabia has recently been seeking to expand its mining sector by securing bilateral agreements with Western countries and inking investment deals to extract and refine mineral resources. In the first six months of 2025, Saudi Arabia issued 22 mining licenses, an increase from nine during the same period in 2024. On Jan. 14, representatives from the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia signed a critical minerals cooperation deal in efforts to secure British critical minerals supply chains and support the development of British industries that rely on critical mineral supplies, including artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and clean energy technologies. During U.S. President
READ MORESituation ReportAug 20, 2025 | 20:17 GMT
India, China: Governments Continue To Ease Tensions With New Agreements
Marking the conclusion of the Chinese foreign minister's two-day visit to New Delhi, India and China agreed to resume bilateral direct flights, maintain communications on transboundary rivers and water issues, and establish a group to formally explore demarcating sections of their disputed border, Reuters reported on Aug. 19.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsAug 13, 2025 | 21:35 GMT
The UAE's Long Game in East Africa
Over the past two decades, Emirati companies have steadily expanded their footprint across East Africa, with a focus on logistics, farmland and critical minerals. Amid East African countries' rapid economic growth, this trend will likely continue as Dubai-based entities look to capitalize on the region's economic potential and to position Dubai as its leading trade interface with the rest of the world. However, the United Arab Emirates' outreach to East Africa has become increasingly driven by geostrategic considerations since the start of the 2010s, with the goal of pushing back against political Islam and shoring up Emirati influence in the Red Sea region. With a rising prospect of resurging UAE-Turkey competition in the medium-term amid Iran's repeated setbacks, Abu Dhabi will likely keep deepening its security and trade partnership with East Africa as it seeks to keep Ankara and other regional competitors' influence at bay -- with Ethiopia and Uganda
READ MORESituation ReportAug 13, 2025 | 16:42 GMT
Pacific Islands: Influence Competition Heats Up Ahead of Summits
The United States pledged $60 million to the Pacific island region under its 2022 U.S.-Pacific Partnership, and China secured a $651 million development deal with Nauru, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported on Aug. 13.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsAug 12, 2025 | 21:05 GMT
Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?
While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.
READ MORESnapshotsAug 8, 2025 | 19:45 GMT
What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit
The upcoming Trump-Putin summit risks sidelining Ukraine, fracturing Western unity and creating space for Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains and promote a U.S.-Russia framework that advances Russian strategic interests. On Aug. 7, the Kremlin and the White House confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are preparing to meet ''within days.'' The announcement came just hours ahead of an Aug. 8 deadline set by Trump, who has threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil unless Moscow makes significant progress on the peace process in Ukraine. According to Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy aide, the leaders ''essentially'' agreed to a one-on-one summit, their first since 2018, at the ''suggestion of the American side.'' This development followed closed-door talks between Putin and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow on Aug. 6, which both sides described as ''productive'' and ''constructive,'' though no details were disclosed. U.S.
READ MORESituation ReportAug 8, 2025 | 18:34 GMT
U.S.: Federal Agency Approves New Rules for Submarine Cables
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission approved new rules to accelerate the deployment and security of submarine cables, citing risks from adversaries and competitors like China, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 7.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 7, 2025 | 21:53 GMT
Will Trump's Tariffs Deter India From Buying Russian Oil?
Despite escalating U.S. tariffs, India will likely continue buying Russian oil for affordable energy in the short term, while simultaneously negotiating a trade deal with the United States to protect its broader economic interests. On Aug. 6, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order that places a new 25% tariff on Indian imports, effective Aug. 27, bringing total U.S. tariffs on India to 50%. In justifying the tariff hike, Trump cited India's continued purchases of Russian oil, arguing that these transactions have helped finance Russia's war in Ukraine. The move comes as Trump has repeatedly voiced frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over stalled ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine. In response to Trump's tariff announcement, the Indian government stressed its oil purchases were guided by market dynamics and the need to secure energy for its population, and asserted that India will act to defend its national interests. India has also
READ MORESituation ReportAug 7, 2025 | 15:07 GMT
U.S.: Trump's 100% Semiconductor Tariff To Further Incentivize Manufacturing Offshoring
U.S. President Donald Trump said he would place a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors but would exempt tech companies that have committed to building manufacturing facilities in the United States, specifically mentioning Apple, Politico reported on Aug. 6.
READ MORESituation ReportAug 6, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
India, U.S.: Trump Imposes Additional 25% Tariff Over Imports of Russian Oil
In an executive order, President Donald Trump announced a new 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total to 50%, citing New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 6.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 4, 2025 | 15:46 GMT
The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability
Despite the Afghan Taliban's growing foreign engagement, a widening divide between countries willing to foster close ties with the group and the generally Western states that will remain more hesitant will challenge efforts to stem Afghanistan's worsening domestic challenges, which could ultimately threaten security and stability regionwide. After limiting ties with Afghanistan following the Taliban's takeover of the country in August 2021, Germany, on July 21, said it had allowed two envoys from Afghanistan's Taliban government to visit and facilitate Afghan migrant deportations as Berlin intensifies its efforts to curb illegal migration. Though Chancellor Friedrich Merz later clarified Germany had not moved in its refusal to diplomatically recognize the Afghan Taliban, Merz did reiterate a need to engage with the group and carry out limited "technical coordination." Berlin's decision marked the latest in a string of diplomatic victories for Afghanistan, which also saw Russia on July 3 become the first
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