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AssessmentsJul 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An image depicts waving Chinese and Indian flags overlaying a map of the world.
In India, Anti-China Anger Will Bring Out Modi's Hawkish Side
A surge of anti-China sentiment among Indian lawmakers, business leaders and voters will prompt Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a more aggressive approach against Bejing in the wake of the two countries' recent border clash. This could include a variety of actions ranging from diplomatic moves to economic and trade measures, as well as a continued military build-up against China, which will only further ratchet up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors. 
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Quarterly ForecastsJun 29, 2020 | 00:02 GMT
2020 Third-Quarter Forecast
While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.
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SnapshotsJun 16, 2020 | 15:48 GMT
North Korea and South Korea Inch Closer Toward Low-Level Military Confrontation
A mounting inter-Korean spat over propaganda balloons, amid domestic political developments deemed provocative in both countries, is raising the risk for low-level military confrontation while threatening South Korea’s efforts to begin its COVID-19 economic recovery. Over the past several days, despite the 20th anniversary of the first inter-Korean summit, North Korea has demolished the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong, threatened to scrap a 2018 bilateral military agreement aimed at easing inter-Korean tensions, stopped the daily calls between the two governments, and issued several warnings against South Korea's inaction to stop activists and defectors from sending propaganda-laden balloons into North Korea.
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SnapshotsJun 15, 2020 | 17:11 GMT
Despite ‘Intensified’ EU-U.K. Trade Talks, a No-Deal Brexit Remains Possible
The U.K. government’s decision to officially forgo extending its membership in the EU single market beyond Dec. 31 has increased the probability of no-deal Brexit on Jan. 1, but a limited trade agreement remains possible given Brussels and London’s mutual desire to avoid further economic disruption in light of the COVID-19 crisis. On June 15, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a virtual meeting with the presidents of the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament in an attempt to unblock EU-U.K. negotiations. According to an EU press release, Johnson confirmed that the United Kingdom will not seek to remain in the bloc’s single market in 2021. But during the meeting, he and EU leaders also agreed on the need to “intensify” talks and secure “new momentum” toward reaching a deal by increasing the frequency of trade negotiations from monthly to weekly. There are still significant obstacles, however, to
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AssessmentsJun 15, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Protesters in New York City kneel at an intersection to demand an end to systemic racism and police brutality on June 11, 2020.
U.S. Unrest Further Strains Trump’s Ties With Global Allies
Global U.S. allies are increasingly condemning the White House’s heavy-handed response to the nationwide protests following George Floyd’s death, suggesting a further erosion of U.S. leadership that could compromise Washington’s ability to find consensus on its controversial agenda of multilateral economic and security issues. Commentary from reputable news outlets and elite opinion-makers in Europe over the past week have questioned whether American internal polarization and discord would weaken its ability to function as a reliable ally. Increasingly irritated with the White House’s break from long-standing diplomatic norms, European governments appear to be translating opinion into policy action by challenging Trump’s proposed adjustments to the Group of Seven (G-7) summit and U.S. military posture in Europe.
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AssessmentsJun 3, 2020 | 17:02 GMT
Chinese flags and American flags are displayed at a business in Beijing.
Amid Rising Hong Kong Tensions, the U.S.-China Trade Deal Hangs by a Thread
Rising bilateral tensions stemming from Beijing's proposed national security legislation for Hong Kong are increasing the risk that the "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China will collapse before the end of 2020. The deal itself may still officially exist, but tit-for-tat escalation on tariffs and trade measures will render it functionally dead. Further retaliation by the United States over the Hong Kong legislation also risks triggering Chinese countermeasures beyond trade policy.
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AssessmentsJun 2, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A collection of Saudi riyal banknotes.
Saudi Arabia’s Currency Peg Will Hold -- For Now
The current collapse in crude prices is again fueling questions over the durability of the hard U.S. dollar currency peg used by Saudi Arabia. Despite the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, the peg is likely to survive in the near term. But structural changes in both the global oil market and the Saudi economy means Riyadh will likely devalue its currency at some point in the next five years, as this time the kingdom will not be able to rely on a full recovery in prices for its oil exports to substantially replenish the large fiscal reserves that underpin its ability to defend currency pegs.
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GuidanceMay 29, 2020 | 22:34 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks about U.S. relations with China at the White House on May 29, 2020.
U.S. Threats to Overhaul Hong Kong Policy Intensify China Confrontation
U.S. President Donald Trump's May 29 announcements adjusting U.S. policy toward China could derail the phase one U.S.-China trade deal if fully implemented, but they are unlikely to deter Beijing's determination to implement new Hong Kong national security legislation -- and no matter what, Hong Kong protest activity will increase in the coming months.
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On GeopoliticsMay 26, 2020 | 22:06 GMT
Protesters fleeing tear gas during a general strike in Hong Kong in August 2019.
What the End of One Country, Two Systems Means for Hong Kong, Taiwan and the World
Beijing's decision to impose a long-delayed security law on Hong Kong reflects the mainland’s growing concern with challenges to national unity ahead of next year's 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. But it is more immediately driven by the rising violence in Hong Kong and the political evolution in Taiwan. Despite international criticism, China will strengthen efforts to fully integrate Hong Kong and to further isolate Taiwan internationally.
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On SecurityMay 19, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An image of the Islamic State flag overlays a map of Iraq.
Rumblings of an Islamic State Resurgence in Iraq
The Islamic State may have faded from international headlines, but the group remains a potent threat capable of returning with force in its core territory. Since beginning its initial resurgence in Iraq during 2011, the Islamic State has morphed from a local insurgent group to a global movement, with branches that have continued to launch attacks in areas ranging from West Africa to Afghanistan. And without sustained pressure from its adversaries, including the United States and Iraq, the group is well-positioned to continue its resurgence in its core territory -- a development with potentially grave global consequences.
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SnapshotsMay 11, 2020 | 19:39 GMT
As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Opts for Austerity
In the face of the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent global recession, most countries are launching significant fiscal stimulus programs to boost domestic economic activity. Governments dependent on oil and gas revenue, however, are being forced to do the opposite as the likely long-term collapse of energy prices necessitates sharp spending cuts and unpopular austerity measures. Saudi Arabia has recently joined the growing list of oil-producers now facing twin economic and political crises as a result of the pandemic.  On May 10, Riyadh announced three specific measures that Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan said were necessary to get its public finances under control for the long and painful road ahead: - Saudi Arabia will cut or delay spending totaling 100 billion Saudi riyals ($26.6 billion), which is roughly equivalent to 10 percent of Saudi Arabia's planned 1020 billion riyal ($271.5 billion) 2020 budget. It is not clear how much of the spending cuts and
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