AssessmentsJul 5, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsJul 4, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties
Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will continue expanding their oil and gas exports to emerging markets, particularly in Asia, while these countries seek alternative export markets to the United States amid tariff uncertainty; but despite these shifting trade dynamics, Gulf Arab countries will maintain strong military and technological ties with the United States. The oil-rich countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman) are set to benefit from changing global trade partners. While hydrocarbon products currently comprise most of GCC nations' global exports, a significant portion of their trade growth is expected to come from non-hydrocarbon sectors in the coming years. This shift is part of their long-term economic and trade diversification strategies (including Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar's National Vision 2030), which are all aimed
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 3, 2025 | 20:50 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 2, 2025 | 19:17 GMT
Vietnam, U.S.: Hanoi Avoids 46% Tariffs With Trade Deal, but Lower Rate Still Spells Risk
The United States reached a trade deal with Vietnam that will see Washington lower its proposed 46% tariff rate on Vietnamese goods to 20% in exchange for Vietnam cutting tariffs on U.S. goods to zero, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a July 2 post on Truth Social.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 1, 2025 | 17:34 GMT
A Fragile Peace Takes Shape Between Congo and Rwanda
The peace agreement opens Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo up to significant economic opportunities, but disagreements over interpretation and continued proxy violence risk stalling the deal’s implementation.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 1, 2025 | 17:01 GMT
Argentina: YPF Legal Dispute To Fuel Uncertainty, Financial Volatility
A U.S. judge ordered Argentina to give up its 51% stake in oil and gas company YPF as a partial payment in a $16.1 billion trial, La Nacion reported June 30.
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 1, 2025 | 15:42 GMT
The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program
Argentina has made significant strides in terms of macroeconomic stabilization and, bolstered by a new IMF program, the country's short-term outlook remains broadly favorable, despite approaching legislative elections in October and the concomitant risk of policy slippage. Since taking office in December 2023, the government of President Javier Milei has implemented a very substantial fiscal adjustment and broader structural reform. This enabled Argentina to reach a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, which commits the government to continued fiscal discipline, a liberalization of exchange rate policies, and structural reform. The new IMF program will also provide Argentina with foreign-exchange liquidity, thus making the country's external financing outlook more manageable. As a condition necessary to secure the IMF program, Argentina abolished its crawling peg exchange rate regime, which risked exacerbating peso overvaluation and balance-of-payments problems. The government has adopted a floating foreign exchange regime within a pre-determined
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:08 GMT
China, U.S.: Washington, Beijing Finalize Rare Earth Trade Truce
The United States and China finalized their June framework trade agreement under which China has pledged to resume rare earth exports to the United States in exchange for rollbacks of certain U.S. trade restrictions on non-sensitive goods, like ethane and air components, Bloomberg reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 15:48 GMT
Nigeria: Tinubu Brokers Deal Between Wike and Fubara Over Rivers Crisis
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu brokered a deal between Minister for the Federal Capital Territory Nyesom Wike and suspended Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara over the ongoing political crisis in Rivers state, The Punch reported June 27.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
READ MORESnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
READ MORESnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability
The collapse of France's pension reform negotiations could undermine Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's fragile minority government, increasing the risk of no-confidence votes, budgetary deadlock and potentially early elections at a time when the country is facing mounting pressure to rein in its growing deficit. On June 23, months-long negotiations between French unions and employer groups over potential amendments to President Emmanuel Macron's contested 2023 pensions reform collapsed. The talks focused on revising the law that gradually raises France's retirement age from 62 to 64, as part of a last-ditch attempt to ease tensions between the government, trade unions and opposition parties. Prime Minister Bayrou had tasked unions and employers with identifying compromise measures, including earlier retirement options for physically demanding jobs and greater recognition of maternity leave. However, employer groups reportedly opposed any changes that they argued would impose new costs and could threaten the financial balance of the system.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 24, 2025 | 18:55 GMT
Bangladesh: IMF To Release $1.3B After Third and Fourth Loan Review
Under a combined third and fourth review of Bangladesh's ongoing loan program, the International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the release of $1.3 billion, Bloomberg reported on June 24.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 23, 2025 | 19:06 GMT
China, U.S.: Beijing Bans Two Fentanyl Precursors as Rare Earth Exports Dropped 80% in May
China added two fentanyl precursor chemicals to its Class Two list, enabling stricter supervision of their export starting July 20 in what Chinese officials deemed "a contribution to global drug control," Bloomberg reported on June 23.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 21, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict Rages On, NATO Holds Annual Summit
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 20, 2025 | 19:09 GMT
Thailand: Ruling Coalition Teeters on Collapse, Economy Suffers
The Thai coalition government's second-largest party, the United Thai Nation Party, is threatening to exit the government if Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra does not resign, the Bangkok Post reported on June 20.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 17, 2025 | 16:56 GMT
U.S. Review of AUKUS Pillar I Puts Pact on Shaky Ground
The U.S. review of AUKUS Pillar I puts the deal in jeopardy, but strong strategic imperatives mean Washington is more likely to revise the pact than scrap Pillar I outright. On June 11, the U.S. Department of Defense formally launched a 30-day review of AUKUS Pillar I, the nuclear-powered submarine component of the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States signed in 2021. According to the Pentagon, the review aims to evaluate if the AUKUS submarine deal aligns with U.S. military capacity, industrial readiness and national interests pursuant to the Trump administration's "America First" doctrine. U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, a known AUKUS sceptic, will oversee the review, assessing the feasibility and desirability of delivering up to five Virginia‑class attack submarines to Australia. The review will have no immediate direct bearing on Pillar II, but its outcome will have significant implications for its
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 16, 2025 | 21:27 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification
While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is attempting to use global trade tensions to strengthen economic integration, the bloc's diversity will limit the extent of this effort even as, over time, common concern about export dependencies on the United States will drive ASEAN members to seek alternative trading partners. On May 26-27, Malaysia, as the 2025 ASEAN chair, hosted a series of summits that underscored ASEAN's broad dual-track initiatives to bolster intra-bloc trade and trade diversification. The 46th ASEAN Summit, convened on May 26, brought together leaders from the ten-member bloc and produced a new five-year strategic plan aimed at deepening economic integration among member states, with goals such as further harmonizing trade standards, enhancing financial integration and promoting sustainable economic practices. Leaders also committed to finalizing an upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement by October, which aims to further liberalize regional markets and boost intra-ASEAN trade beyond
READ MORESnapshotsJun 16, 2025 | 16:06 GMT
Assessing the Trajectory of the Iran-Israel War
With both sides seemingly unwilling to negotiate, the Iran-Israel conflict is escalating into a high-intensity but limited war that increases the risk of regional spillover and/or Iran's withdrawal from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, elevating the risk of U.S. military involvement. Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles toward central and northern Israel early on June 16, while Israel continued its widespread attacks on Iran, including against its capital, Tehran. Since June 13, Israeli attacks in Iran have killed at least 224 people, according to the Iranian government, while Iranian attacks in Israel have killed at least 23 people and injured more than 400 others, according to the Israeli government. Iran's June 16 ballistic missile attack impacted several locations in Israel, including Haifa, Petah Tikva and Tel Aviv, where an Iranian missile slightly damaged the U.S. Consulate. Meanwhile, Israel reported that it hit more than 80 targets in Tehran on June 15,
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