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AssessmentsMar 13, 2026 | 20:22 GMT

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits

Despite the two countries' mutual defense agreement, Pakistan will likely avoid direct military intervention in support of Saudi Arabia against Iranian strikes and instead limit its role to defensive and technical support given the risk of Iranian retaliation, domestic sectarian tensions, economic pressures and Pakistan's ongoing conflict with the Afghan Taliban; yet a more active role from Islamabad remains possible if Iranian attacks were to seriously threaten Saudi energy infrastructure or the kingdom's broader stability. Following Iran's recent missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been coordinating closely in the context of their new mutual defense agreement, signed in September. On March 7, Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, met with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in Riyadh to discuss potential joint actions under the agreement, which stipulates that an attack on one country is considered an attack on both. Days later, on

Military & Security

AssessmentsMar 13, 2026 | 20:04 GMT

Geopolitical Calendar

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Situation ReportMar 13, 2026 | 19:46 GMT

U.S.: Pentagon Orders USS Tripoli, Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ordered the deployment of the USS Tripoli, an America-class landing helicopter amphibious assault ship, and its attached 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is comprised of about 2,200 marines, to the Middle East, Axios reported on March 13.

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 13, 2026 | 16:36 GMT

South Africa: Ramaphosa Approves Deployment of 2,200 Troops to Combat Crime

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa approved the deployment of 2,200 military personnel to the provinces of the Western Cape, Gauteng, Free State, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape to tackle violent crime and illegal mining, Reuters reported on March 13.

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 13, 2026 | 16:27 GMT

Israel, Lebanon: War Expands as Israel Strikes Bridges in Southern Lebanon

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Israel could destroy Lebanese national infrastructure allegedly used by Hezbollah if the group is not disarmed, The Times of Israel reported on March 13.

Military & Security

AssessmentsMar 12, 2026 | 19:55 GMT

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

In an extended conflict with Iran, the United States could escalate by deploying ground forces ranging from limited commando raids to a full-scale invasion. But while small special operations missions are the most viable option, larger incursions or regime-change operations would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support. With the air war unlikely to result in a decisive victory for either side, the United States has threatened to further escalate with ground operations inside Iran, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he does not want to take any options off the table. A ground operation could run the gamut, from a limited commando raid with narrow and specific objectives with a few dozen forces, to an incursion with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and limited regional diplomatic buy-in, to a full-scale invasion to topple the regime,

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 12, 2026 | 16:26 GMT

Mozambique: EU To Decide on Renewal of Funding for Rwandan Deployment in Cabo Delgado

EU funding for the Rwandan deployment in northern Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, is set to expire in May, and discussions about a possible renewal have reportedly not yet been planned, Bloomberg reported on March 12.

Military & Security

AssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 20:48 GMT

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 12, 2026

The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

Situation ReportMar 11, 2026 | 19:20 GMT

Iran, U.S., Israel: Pro-Iran Hackers Reportedly Cripple U.S.-Based Medical Technology Company

Pro-Iran hacktivist group Handala claimed a cyberattack on U.S.-based medical technology company Stryker Corp. that crippled its operations, Bloomberg reported on March 11.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

AssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 18:20 GMT

People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.

Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions

The Iran war risks fueling sectarian tensions in Bahrain and further straining its economy due to disruptions to energy and aluminum exports. Other Gulf countries may choose security and economic intervention to stabilize the country, with a financial package potentially conditioned on further fiscal consolidation efforts. Bahraini authorities have been cracking down on protesters and government critics following domestic protests after the Feb. 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. The protests, a rare instance of civil unrest in the kingdom, have involved at least hundreds of participants from the majority Shiite Bahrain population and extended to cities and villages throughout the country. While the majority of protests were peaceful, some protesters threw Molotov cocktails and clashed with Bahraini security forces, resulting in several dozen arrests. Although Bahraini authorities have limited publicity of the demonstrations, security forces' arrests and government measures

Military & Security

AssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 15:46 GMT

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026.

The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships

Canada's push to deepen ties with India, Australia and Japan reflects an effort to reduce economic and security dependence on the United States, yet this plan faces varying constraints and any successes may ultimately strengthen the same U.S.-centered economic and security system Ottawa is trying to hedge against. From Feb. 27 to March 6, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India, Australia and Japan to expand economic, technological and security cooperation. During the trip, Canada and each of the three governments announced a range of initiatives covering trade negotiations, energy cooperation, investment coordination, critical minerals supply chains, defense dialogue and emerging technologies. In India, Carney met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to advance bilateral economic cooperation and launch new negotiations toward a comprehensive trade agreement, while also announcing commercial deals and new cooperation frameworks in energy, defense and technology. Carney then traveled to Australia, where he met with Prime Minister

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 10, 2026 | 18:57 GMT

China, North Korea: Cross-Border Passenger Rail Service Resumes

The China State Railway Group announced on March 9 that it would resume direct passenger rail service between Beijing and Pyongyang and international passenger rail service between China's border city of Dandong and Pyongyang, effective March 12.

Situation ReportMar 10, 2026 | 18:44 GMT

Sudan: U.S. Designates Sudan's Muslim Brotherhood as Foreign Terrorist Organization

The United States designated organizations linked to the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan, namely the Sudanese Islamic Movement, or SIM, and the Al-Baraa bin Malik Bataillon, or BBMB, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, effective from March 16, the U.S. State Department announced on March 9.

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 10, 2026 | 17:07 GMT

U.S., Afghanistan: Washington Designates Afghanistan 'State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention'

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Afghanistan and its Taliban government a "state sponsor of wrongful detention," demanding the group end its continuing use of "terrorist tactics" and kidnappings "for ransom or to seek policy concessions," Reuters reported on March 9.

Situation ReportMar 10, 2026 | 16:30 GMT

Mali: U.S. Reportedly Nearing Deal To Resume ISR Operations

The United States is nearing an agreement with Mali that would enable it to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, or ISR, flights over Malian airspace to gather intelligence on jihadist groups operating in the country, Reuters reported on March 9 based on conversations with a current U.S. official and one former U.S. official.

Military & Security

AssessmentsMar 9, 2026 | 20:39 GMT

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa at his "Shield of the Americas" summit, a gathering with heads of state and government officials from 12 countries in the Americas at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on March 7, 2026, in Doral, Florida.

U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism

Joint U.S.-Ecuador military operations meet strategic goals for both governments, despite the risk of political backlash in Ecuador, and they further demonstrate the Trump administration's intent to expand U.S. security operations to other Latin American countries as Washington's regional interventionism grows.

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 9, 2026 | 20:16 GMT

U.S., Latin America: Shield of the Americas Summit Establishes Coalition To Combat Cartels

The United States hosted the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Doral, Florida, during which U.S. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation launching a coalition to combat drug cartels, The Guardian reported on March 7.

Dominican Republic

Trinidad and Tobago

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 9, 2026 | 15:38 GMT

China, U.S.: Chinese Threat Actors Suspected of FBI Breach

U.S. investigators believe that Chinese state-sponsored threat actors are responsible for breaching computer networks linked to the FBI that hold information related to domestic surveillance orders, The Wall Street Journal reported on March 6.

Military & Security

AssessmentsMar 9, 2026 | 15:11 GMT

Jordanian Armed Forces, U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces and other international forces conduct a combined Arms Live Fire Exercise on May 23, 2024 in the desert near Azraq, Jordan.

Jordan Likely To Step Up Anti-Islamic State, Countersmuggling Operations in Syria

The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria will likely pressure Jordan to expand security support to Syria to combat challenges including the Islamic State and arms and drug smuggling. Jordan is likely to conduct at least sporadic airstrikes when Syria is unable or unwilling to effectively mitigate threats. Over the next two months, the United States is expected to fully withdraw the roughly 1,000 troops remaining in Syria, continuing the drawdown begun in 2025. In mid-February, U.S. forces handed over operations of the al-Tanf Base near Syria's borders with Jordan and Iraq to Syrian forces. Days later, U.S. troops also transferred control of the al-Shaddadi Base in Syria's northeast. While some U.S. forces withdrew to Jordan, where the United States maintains a robust military presence at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (MSAB), the government in Amman remains concerned about cross-border threats from Syria. However, the outbreak of war with Iran on

Military & Security

Situation ReportMar 6, 2026 | 16:30 GMT

U.S., Latin America, Caribbean: U.S. and Allies Agree on Aggressive Approach Against Latin American Drug Trafficking

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth signed a deal with military officials from 19 Latin American and Caribbean countries ideologically aligned with President Donald Trump's administration to fight narcoterrorist groups, Reuters reported March 5.

Dominican Republic

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