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AssessmentsJan 6, 2026 | 20:41 GMT
Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World
The growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will likely increasingly strain bilateral relations, raising the risk of escalations and conflicts -- both directly and through their proxies -- in places like Yemen, Sudan and Syria, as well as disruptions within the Gulf Cooperation Council. Geopolitical competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has increased in recent weeks, evident in their diverging strategies across several regional flashpoints and their direct economic rivalry. In Yemen, tensions have sharply escalated after Saudi-backed government troops on Jan. 2 launched an offensive in Hadramaut province to recapture territory from the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), highlighting the continued divergence of Saudi and Emirati strategic imperatives in the country. Similarly, in Sudan, the two Gulf states are backing rival factions in that country's ongoing civil war. And in Syria, while both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi support the new provisional
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Sudan
Saudi Arabia
Syria
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
Annual ForecastsJan 5, 2026 | 00:00 GMT
2026 Annual Forecast
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026 | 20:15 GMT
A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe.
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast
At a time when forecasts are plentiful and certainty is often overstated, we strongly believe that publishing a transparent record of our accuracy is essential. This annual scorecard is a candid internal assessment of what we forecast accurately, where we missed the mark and where events unfolded in ways that challenged our underlying assumptions. This exercise is not performative. While we will celebrate our successes and further critique our missteps, the goal of this assessment is to sharpen our analytic discipline and inform the forecast for the year ahead.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Global Trade
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsDec 30, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025.
Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor
Israel's recognition of Somaliland's independence will likely enable it to eventually secure access to military facilities in the territory, which would raise the likelihood of retaliation from the Houthis. It also increases the likelihood of the United States, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates recognizing Somaliland in the coming years and threatens to escalate proxy conflicts in Sudan and Yemen. On Dec. 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel's recognition of the independence of Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland. The move came after Netanyahu signed a declaration of mutual recognition with Somalilander President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Irro, with Israel pledging to expand cooperation with Somaliland in the field of agriculture, health, technology and the economy. Following the signing ceremony, Netanyahu said that the joint declaration was "in the spirit of the Abraham Accords" and that he would tell U.S. President Donald Trump about Somaliland's readiness to formally
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Somalia
Sudan
Egypt
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Military & Security
Situation ReportDec 29, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland
The governments of Somalia's Jubaland and Puntland states skipped a meeting convened by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to discuss plans to protect the country's territorial integrity following Israel's Dec. 26 recognition of the independence Somaliland, a breakaway region, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 29.
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Somalia
Egypt
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 18, 2025 | 19:33 GMT
A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.
The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West
A spate of recent Islamic State-linked terror incidents illustrates the group's resilience and continuing ability to inspire supporters across the globe, as growing branches in certain countries may develop both a greater intent and capability to direct mass casualty attacks in the West in the coming years. Over the past week, authorities worldwide have linked a series of successful attacks and thwarted plots to the Islamic State. On Dec. 14, a father and son pair inspired by the group killed 15 people and injured dozens more at a Hanukkah celebration in Sydney, Australia, the deadliest terror incident in the country's history. The day before, an Islamic State-affiliated gunman killed two U.S. servicemembers and a civilian interpreter in an ambush in Palmyra, Syria. Meanwhile, on Dec. 16, Polish police said they had arrested an individual suspected of planning an Islamic State-inspired attack on a Christmas market, days after German police said
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Mozambique
Republic of the Congo
Somalia
Syria
Afghanistan
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 18, 2025 | 19:06 GMT
People walk through a main square in Algeria's capital of Algiers on Sept. 15, 2024.
Algeria's Islamic Bonds an Incomplete Step Toward Diversifying Government Revenues
Algeria's inaugural issuance of Islamic bonds marks a symbolic step toward diversifying government funding, but the limited size of the effort means it will have minimal short-term impact on reducing dependence on hydrocarbon revenue and more traditional forms of raising government funds. Algeria is set to issue its inaugural sukuk, or Islamic bonds, with a seven-year maturity and a 6% fixed annual return in early 2026. According to reports, the initial issuance will be valued at around 297 billion Algerian dinars, or $2.3 billion, equivalent to about 1% of the country's GDP. The bond sale -- which was initially planned for November 2025 but later postponed due to government efforts to finalize debt issuance regulations -- is only open to Algerian citizens and backed by state-owned real estate assets. The original plans for sukuk issuance, initially reported in September, came during early discussions for Algeria's 2026 fiscal year budget. 
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Algeria
Economics
Energy
Politics
Situation ReportDec 17, 2025 | 17:35 GMT
U.S.: Trump Expands Travel Ban, Effective Jan. 1
The Trump administration expanded its travel ban to include full restrictions on several sub-Saharan African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso, Laos, Syria and individuals with Palestinian Authority-issued passports, as well as partial restrictions on several Caribbean and other African countries, the White House announced on Dec. 16.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Burkina Faso
Mali
United States
Syria
Laos
Economics
Politics
Situation ReportDec 16, 2025 | 19:21 GMT
Congo: M23 Announces Plan To Withdraw From Uvira Amid U.S. Pressure
Corneille Nangaa, the leader of the Alliance for the Congo River -- a rebel coalition also known as the AFC and that includes the Rwandan-backed M23 -- announced in a statement on X dated Dec. 15 that the group would unilaterally withdraw its forces from the eastern Congolese city of Uvira at the request of the United States, Reuters reported on Dec. 16.
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Burundi
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Rwanda
United States
Military & Security
Politics
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