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AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 21:38 GMT
Malian trucks carrying fuel are seen waiting to cross the border between Cote d'Ivoire and Mali on Oct. 31, 2025.
Mali's Junta Fights for Its Life as Jihadists Tighten Their Noose on Bamako
Jihadists' fuel blockade on Mali's capital is set to increase popular and elite pressure on the ruling junta, whose likely inability to use force to fully lift the blockade portends rising intra-junta tensions that risk fragmenting the country's security forces, a development that jihadists would likely exploit to advance toward the capital. On Oct. 28, the U.S. Embassy in Mali issued a security alert calling on all U.S. nationals to immediately leave the country amid a worsening fuel blockade by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the capital Bamako and other major cities. The fuel blockade, which began in early September, has led to severe shortages of diesel and gasoline, bringing the economy to a standstill and causing fuel prices to increase by up to 500%. While Mali's junta has deployed security forces to escort fuel truck convoys importing petroleum products from neighboring countries, this has not
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Mali
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 22:48 GMT
A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025.
Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?
The United States is pressuring Nigeria to take visible action against armed groups targeting Christian communities, but Abuja faces multiple constraints to curb the violence, and fresh instances of high-profile intercommunal attacks would increase the likelihood of U.S. airstrikes in Nigeria. On Oct. 31, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he was designating Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern due to the killing of Christians in the country. The following day, Trump warned that his administration would ''immediately stop all aid and assistance'' to Nigeria if its government ''continue[d] to allow the killing of Christians,'' and said he had instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to prepare for ''possible action'' in the country. Trump later told reporters on board Air Force One that this could involve launching air strikes or deploying ground troops. In response to Trump's comments, a spokesperson for Nigerian President
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Nigeria
United States
Military & Security
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 19:54 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025.
The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders' summit underscored the bloc's efforts to improve cohesion amid U.S.-China competition, from which it is set to benefit economically. But over time, competing trade pressures and internal divergences will test this cohesiveness, with fractures exposing individual members to external and, at times, coercive influence. On Oct. 26-28, the leaders of Southeast Asian countries gathered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the 47th ASEAN Leaders' Summit, joined by high-level representatives from partner countries, including the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump attended the opening day, where he oversaw Thailand and Cambodia signing an expanded ceasefire and joint declaration that formalized and broadened their July truce after deadly border clashes. On the economic track, Washington reached bilateral agreements with four ASEAN members, including a reciprocal trade agreement with Malaysia, a full trade accord with Cambodia, a framework trade deal with Thailand, and a provisional
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United States
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
On SecurityOct 29, 2025 | 15:39 GMT
Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building.
Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success
In recent weeks, a flurry of youth-led mass protests, often given the moniker ''Gen Z,'' has swept across countries in Africa and Asia. Despite each protest movement having its own unique features, there are signs that they have been inspiring, if not significantly coordinating with each other. They share a common frustration with the ruling elite and a belief that poor governance -- due to the rising cost of living, high-level corruption, social injustice, worsening authoritarianism or otherwise -- is mortgaging their futures. These movements not only have generated empathy from outsiders but also resulted in changes, from regime change or changes to unpopular legislation, that open the door to reforms to countries' political structures, economic systems and security apparatuses. But these uprisings also entail numerous risks beyond the obvious potential for near-term violence. These dangers are often overlooked, yet Gen Z protesters will have to confront the same fundamental
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Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
South Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Serbia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 24, 2025 | 15:31 GMT
Kenyan forces stand next to the coffin of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during a funeral mass at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on October 19, 2025 in Bondo, Kenya.
What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics
The death of former Kenyan Prime Minister and opposition leader Raila Odinga risks fragmenting his political party, creating space for other opposition figures to challenge the incumbent president. Odinga, widely known as the "people's president" despite never serving in the role, died on Oct. 15 after reportedly suffering a stroke while receiving medical treatment in India. The 80-year-old, a central figure in Kenyan politics for decades, was granted a state funeral and seven days of national mourning. However, his death quickly sparked unrest across the country from the capital, Nairobi to his home region of Western Kenya. In the intervening days four people were killed when security forces used live fire to disperse crowds at the Kasarani stadium where Odinga's body was to be publicly viewed. On Oct. 16, Odinga's supporters also stormed airport grounds, breaching security and forcing authorities to temporarily halt operations. Some mourners denounced President William Ruto,
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Kenya
Economics
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsOct 21, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election.
Previewing Tanzania's General Elections
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in Tanzania's Oct. 29 general elections, and while her sidelining of opposition forces threatens to trigger potentially violent demonstrations, these are unlikely to pose a threat to her second term, set to focus on advancing constitutional reforms and infrastructure projects. On Oct. 10, Hassan stated at a campaign rally for her Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, or CCM, in the northern Mara region that she would press ahead with constitutional amendments should she be elected for a second term. Hassan's comments built on previous pledges made since taking office in 2021, when she accepted opposition demands for a constitutional review, though precise details have yet to be laid out. But while Hassan's recent comments were likely aimed at shoring up her reformist credentials, authorities have barred the country's two largest opposition parties -- Chadema and the ACT-Wazalendo -- from challenging
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Tanzania
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportOct 16, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Madagascar: African Union Suspends Madagascar Over Military Coup
The African Union announced the suspension of Madagascar's membership from the continental bloc in response to the Malagasy military's Oct. 14 coup, warned of sanctions against the country's new military rulers and called for a civilian-led transitional government that organizes new elections as soon as possible, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 16.
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Madagascar
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 15, 2025 | 18:16 GMT
Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025.
Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar
In Madagascar, President Andry Rajoelina's ousting in a military coup on the back of widespread Gen Z protests will likely inspire demonstrators elsewhere in Africa and de-escalate political tensions in the near term, though protests risk resurging thereafter due to disagreements over the transition period. On Oct. 14, Col. Michael Randrianirina of the Personnel and Services Administration Corps unit of the army, or CAPSAT, announced that the military would take over government affairs, suspend the constitution and dissolve most state institutions with the exception of the National Assembly, the country's lower house. Randrianirina's announcement, which effectively marked a coup in the island nation, came just after the National Assembly impeached Rajoelina, who was exfiltrated by the French military from the country on Oct. 12. Despite its announced dissolution, Madagascar's High Constitutional Court subsequently called on Randrianirina to serve as head of state on an interim basis and for presidential elections
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Madagascar
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportOct 14, 2025 | 18:29 GMT
Zimbabwe: Vice President's Memo Against President's Allies Leaked as War Veteran Calls for Fresh Protests
In a leaked memo to the politburo of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party, or ZANU-PF, Zimbabwean Vice President Constantino Chiwenga accused four high-profile allies of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa of having looted over $3.2 billion from state coffers and warned Mnangagwa that the conditions that led to the ousting of former President Robert Mugabe were being replicated, New Zimbabwe reported on Oct. 13.
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Zimbabwe
Military & Security
Politics
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