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AssessmentsJul 4, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties
Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will continue expanding their oil and gas exports to emerging markets, particularly in Asia, while these countries seek alternative export markets to the United States amid tariff uncertainty; but despite these shifting trade dynamics, Gulf Arab countries will maintain strong military and technological ties with the United States. The oil-rich countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman) are set to benefit from changing global trade partners. While hydrocarbon products currently comprise most of GCC nations' global exports, a significant portion of their trade growth is expected to come from non-hydrocarbon sectors in the coming years. This shift is part of their long-term economic and trade diversification strategies (including Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar's National Vision 2030), which are all aimed
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United States
Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
China
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsJul 3, 2025 | 20:29 GMT
Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang answers reporters' questions about the new Vietnam-U.S. trade deal during a press conference in Hanoi on July 3, 2025.
The Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, but the Devil Is in the Details
The U.S.-Vietnam trade deal lowers headline tariffs, but the lack of key details leaves major uncertainty around specifics and enforcement aspects that could reshape investment and squeeze exporters across China-linked and Southeast Asian supply chains. On July 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam in which the United States will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam -- a measure clearly targeting Chinese goods shipped through Vietnam. The agreement was announced just days ahead of a self-imposed July 9 deadline that could have seen the United States place a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods. As a part of the deal, Trump said that Vietnam would eliminate all tariffs on imports of U.S. goods. However, the Vietnamese government has not yet released details or legal text on such plans, and Vietnamese officials have stated that negotiations around finer
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United States
China
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
SnapshotsJul 3, 2025 | 14:17 GMT
A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025.
In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan
The diplomatic row between Azerbaijan and Russia illustrates the Kremlin's declining influence in the Caucasus and will increasingly enable competing powers to fill the void, especially if the feud worsens. In recent days, Baku and Moscow have traded tit-for-tat measures that have further weakened their relationship. Problems began on June 27, when Russian authorities arrested dozens of people of Azerbaijani origin, two of whom died after being taken into custody, in connection with a string of unsolved violent incidents in 2001-11. In response, on June 29, Azerbaijani authorities canceled all cultural events with Russian participation as well as two intergovernmental meetings. On June 30, Azerbaijani police raided the office of the Russian state-backed news agency Sputnik over the outlet's continued operation after the rescission of its license earlier this year; police detained seven employees (two of whom were formally arrested) on multiple charges, including espionage, fraud and illegal financing. Eight
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 20:34 GMT
Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025.
Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West
The Dalai Lama's succession plans threaten to revive reputational risks for Western companies operating in China and could eventually open the door to a more violent confrontation between Beijing and a subset of the Dalai Lama's followers, which would harm China's relations with India and the West. On June 2, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, the Dalai Lama, said to a group of followers at a celebration of his birthday in the Indian city of Dharamshala that he planned to reincarnate after his death and that he had set up a non-profit group, the Gaden Phodrang Trust, that would have full authority to identify and proclaim his successor. An official with the Gaden Phodrang Trust said his successor could be of any gender and any nationality, but the head of the Tibetan government-in-exile, Penpa Tsering, cited the Dalai Lama as saying he would be reborn in "a free world,"
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China
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries
The U.S. decision to pause key arms deliveries to Ukraine will degrade Ukraine's ability to repel intensifying Russian attacks, raising the risk that Kyiv could eventually be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms in future peace negotiations if Washington does not reverse its decision or if Ukraine fails to secure alternative support. On July 1, the United States announced it was pausing the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. According to U.S. officials cited in multiple media reports, the weapons affected by this decision include interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, precision-guided artillery shells and air-launched missiles compatible with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets. While the list of delayed weapons has not been made public, if the media reports are accurate, the freeze will impact deliveries of weapons that are critical to Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities. On July 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it had not received any official
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsJul 1, 2025 | 15:42 GMT
Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.
The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program
Argentina has made significant strides in terms of macroeconomic stabilization and, bolstered by a new IMF program, the country's short-term outlook remains broadly favorable, despite approaching legislative elections in October and the concomitant risk of policy slippage. Since taking office in December 2023, the government of President Javier Milei has implemented a very substantial fiscal adjustment and broader structural reform. This enabled Argentina to reach a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, which commits the government to continued fiscal discipline, a liberalization of exchange rate policies, and structural reform. The new IMF program will also provide Argentina with foreign-exchange liquidity, thus making the country's external financing outlook more manageable. As a condition necessary to secure the IMF program, Argentina abolished its crawling peg exchange rate regime, which risked exacerbating peso overvaluation and balance-of-payments problems. The government has adopted a floating foreign exchange regime within a pre-determined
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Argentina
Economics
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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SnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
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Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025.
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
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India
Pakistan
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair.
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
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United States
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day.
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
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China
New Zealand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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