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AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 22:01 GMT
A U.S. Marine V-22 Osprey takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport, formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, on Sept. 13, 2025, in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.
The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean
The United States will likely expand the frequency and geographic scope of strikes targeting alleged drug traffickers over the next year, with the potential for attacks to move onshore in a range of countries across Latin America and the Caribbean, creating physical safety and operating challenges for organizations, as well as compliance risks due to expanding sanctions enforcement. Since Oct. 17, U.S. military strikes targeting alleged drug traffickers in the southern Caribbean Sea have increased in frequency and geographic scope, with strikes off the coast of Colombia and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The United States publicly acknowledged a total of eight strikes in 12 days, an escalation from the previous rate of announced strikes of approximately one every other week. The first strike, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on Oct. 20, occurred on Oct. 17 off the coast of Colombia, targeting alleged members of the National Liberation
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Belize
Colombia
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Mexico
Bahamas
Trinidad and Tobago
United States
Venezuela
Jamaica
Military & Security
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
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United States
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsOct 30, 2025 | 18:10 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.
China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely
The U.S.-China talks in South Korea produced a framework deal favorable to China, with future trade war escalations likely over the next year as Washington and Beijing seek to enforce their own interpretations of the new measures. On Oct. 30, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade matters in Busan, South Korea. They announced that the United States will reduce its 20% fentanyl tariff on China to 10%, in exchange for Chinese cooperation on curbing the flow of fentanyl precursor exports. The United States will also forgo its previously threatened 100% additional tariff on China, and has agreed to pause its Section 301 investigation into Chinese shipping, which presumably includes suspending hefty U.S. fees on China-built, -operated or -owned vessels. The U.S. Commerce Department's decision to target all majority-owned subsidiaries of Entity List companies will be suspended for one year as well. China, for
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United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 30, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 19:54 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025.
The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders' summit underscored the bloc's efforts to improve cohesion amid U.S.-China competition, from which it is set to benefit economically. But over time, competing trade pressures and internal divergences will test this cohesiveness, with fractures exposing individual members to external and, at times, coercive influence. On Oct. 26-28, the leaders of Southeast Asian countries gathered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the 47th ASEAN Leaders' Summit, joined by high-level representatives from partner countries, including the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump attended the opening day, where he oversaw Thailand and Cambodia signing an expanded ceasefire and joint declaration that formalized and broadened their July truce after deadly border clashes. On the economic track, Washington reached bilateral agreements with four ASEAN members, including a reciprocal trade agreement with Malaysia, a full trade accord with Cambodia, a framework trade deal with Thailand, and a provisional
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United States
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
On SecurityOct 29, 2025 | 15:39 GMT
Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building.
Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success
In recent weeks, a flurry of youth-led mass protests, often given the moniker ''Gen Z,'' has swept across countries in Africa and Asia. Despite each protest movement having its own unique features, there are signs that they have been inspiring, if not significantly coordinating with each other. They share a common frustration with the ruling elite and a belief that poor governance -- due to the rising cost of living, high-level corruption, social injustice, worsening authoritarianism or otherwise -- is mortgaging their futures. These movements not only have generated empathy from outsiders but also resulted in changes, from regime change or changes to unpopular legislation, that open the door to reforms to countries' political structures, economic systems and security apparatuses. But these uprisings also entail numerous risks beyond the obvious potential for near-term violence. These dangers are often overlooked, yet Gen Z protesters will have to confront the same fundamental
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Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
South Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Serbia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 15:05 GMT
Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.
Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain
After years of stagnation, the German economy will receive a boost from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure, but a failure to implement flanking structural reform will mean that the boost to medium-term economic growth will be limited. In recent weeks, numerous media reports have cast doubt on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ambitious plans to reform the economy. Since taking office in May after forming a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority between his center-right Christian Democratic Union or CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party or SPD, Merz's government has reformed the constitutionally mandated limits on government deficits and has committed to significant increases in defense expenditure and infrastructure, especially of transport. The new government has also agreed to implement reforms aimed at reducing growth-impeding bureaucratic rules governing product markets and infrastructure investment. However, despite these goals, thus far intra-coalition disagreements have translated into more limited practical results
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Germany
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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