AssessmentsJul 5, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsJul 4, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties
Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will continue expanding their oil and gas exports to emerging markets, particularly in Asia, while these countries seek alternative export markets to the United States amid tariff uncertainty; but despite these shifting trade dynamics, Gulf Arab countries will maintain strong military and technological ties with the United States. The oil-rich countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman) are set to benefit from changing global trade partners. While hydrocarbon products currently comprise most of GCC nations' global exports, a significant portion of their trade growth is expected to come from non-hydrocarbon sectors in the coming years. This shift is part of their long-term economic and trade diversification strategies (including Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar's National Vision 2030), which are all aimed
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 3, 2025 | 20:50 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 3, 2025 | 19:46 GMT
South America, Europe: Mercosur- EFTA Free Trade Agreement Finalized Amid U.S. Protectionism
South America's Mercosur trade bloc and the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, finalized a free trade agreement that will cover 97% of shipments between the entities, Reuters reported on July 2.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 3, 2025 | 19:42 GMT
EU: European Companies Ask Commission To Delay Enforcement of AI Act
Representatives from more than 45 European organizations jointly issued a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen requesting a two-year hiatus on the enforcement of upcoming regulations under the EU Artificial Intelligence Act, Bloomberg reported on July 3.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 3, 2025 | 16:04 GMT
Libya: Egypt Pushes U.S. To Pressure Eastern Libya Not To Ratify 2019 Libya-Turkey Maritime Agreement
Egypt asked the United States to press Libyan National Army field marshal Khalifa Hifter and Libya's eastern parliament not to approve the 2019 Turkey-Libya agreement establishing their maritime border, Middle East Eye reported on July 2.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 3, 2025 | 14:17 GMT
In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan
The diplomatic row between Azerbaijan and Russia illustrates the Kremlin's declining influence in the Caucasus and will increasingly enable competing powers to fill the void, especially if the feud worsens. In recent days, Baku and Moscow have traded tit-for-tat measures that have further weakened their relationship. Problems began on June 27, when Russian authorities arrested dozens of people of Azerbaijani origin, two of whom died after being taken into custody, in connection with a string of unsolved violent incidents in 2001-11. In response, on June 29, Azerbaijani authorities canceled all cultural events with Russian participation as well as two intergovernmental meetings. On June 30, Azerbaijani police raided the office of the Russian state-backed news agency Sputnik over the outlet's continued operation after the rescission of its license earlier this year; police detained seven employees (two of whom were formally arrested) on multiple charges, including espionage, fraud and illegal financing. Eight
READ MORESnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries
The U.S. decision to pause key arms deliveries to Ukraine will degrade Ukraine's ability to repel intensifying Russian attacks, raising the risk that Kyiv could eventually be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms in future peace negotiations if Washington does not reverse its decision or if Ukraine fails to secure alternative support. On July 1, the United States announced it was pausing the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. According to U.S. officials cited in multiple media reports, the weapons affected by this decision include interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, precision-guided artillery shells and air-launched missiles compatible with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets. While the list of delayed weapons has not been made public, if the media reports are accurate, the freeze will impact deliveries of weapons that are critical to Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities. On July 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it had not received any official
READ MORESituation ReportJul 1, 2025 | 15:58 GMT
EU, U.S.: Brussels Opens to 10% U.S. Tariff in Deal Ahead of July 9 Deadline, Seeks U.S. Concessions
The European Commission said it received a U.S. proposal outlining potential cooperation on tariff reductions, trade barriers and strategic sectors, though specific terms and tariff rates were not disclosed, Bloomberg reported on June 30.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 1, 2025 | 15:55 GMT
Azerbaijan, Russia: Tensions Increase Following Police Raids of Sputnik's Offices in Baku
Azerbaijani police raided the offices of Russia's state-funded news outlet Sputnik in Baku and arrested an undisclosed number of the network's workers over the outlet's continued operation after the revocation of its accreditation in February, AP reported on June 30.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 1, 2025 | 15:46 GMT
EU, Ukraine: Negotiators Reach Deal on Agricultural Exports
The European Union and Ukraine reached an agreement on June 30 about the future of their trade in agricultural products, establishing three tiers of product quotas that reflect the products' importance to EU producers, The Kyiv Independent reported the next day.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 18:56 GMT
Cameroon: Second Ally of Long-Term President Announces Presidential Bid
Cameroon's long-serving Tourism Minister and former Prime Minister Bello Bouba Maigari, president of the National Union for Democracy and Progress, entered the country's 2025 presidential race without resigning from his Cabinet position, becoming the second senior northern ally of President Paul Biya to do so in recent days, Reuters reported on June 30.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 16:23 GMT
Russia, Ukraine: Russia Launches Major Air Attack Amid Stalled Negotiations
Ukraine's government announced on June 29 that overnight, Russia had launched what Kyiv described as its biggest air attack since the beginning of the war in February 2022, The Kyiv Independent reported the same day.
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 28, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
China: Removal of Commanders, Nuclear Scientist Signals Deepening Military Purge
China removed Gen. Miao Hua from the Central Military Commission and expelled Navy Chief of Staff Vice Adm. Li Hanjun and nuclear scientist Liu Shipeng from the National People's Congress, marking a sharp escalation in Chinese President Xi Jinping's military purge, the South China Morning Post reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 15:32 GMT
EU: Bloc Fails To Adopt New Sanctions Package Against Russia
The European Union on June 26 failed to agree on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to refusals by Hungary and Slovakia, but the bloc agreed to extend for another six months all current sanctions against Russia, The Guardian reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 20:10 GMT
China: Rare Earths Delays Undermine Export Pledge
China continues to delay or deny export licenses for rare earth magnets and raw materials, disrupting supply chains for Western manufacturers despite a recent pledge to ease restrictions, The Wall Street Journal reported on June 26.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
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