Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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Situation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 16:14 GMT
Turkey: Ankara To Skip Mid-Year Minimum Wage Raise
In a break from routine, Turkey will not increase its minimum wage mid-year in a bid to further cool inflation and appease investors concerned about the country's economic strategy, Bloomberg reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 15:32 GMT
EU: Bloc Fails To Adopt New Sanctions Package Against Russia
The European Union on June 26 failed to agree on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to refusals by Hungary and Slovakia, but the bloc agreed to extend for another six months all current sanctions against Russia, The Guardian reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
U.S., Mexico: Treasury Restricts U.S. Business With Three Mexican Financial Institutions Accused of Cartel Financing
The U.S. Treasury Department identified Mexican banks CIBanco and Intercam and brokerage company Vector Casa de Bolsa as being of primary money laundering concern in connection with illicit opioid trafficking over alleged laundering of millions of dollars for cartels, according to a June 25 Treasury press release.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
READ MORESnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability
The collapse of France's pension reform negotiations could undermine Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's fragile minority government, increasing the risk of no-confidence votes, budgetary deadlock and potentially early elections at a time when the country is facing mounting pressure to rein in its growing deficit. On June 23, months-long negotiations between French unions and employer groups over potential amendments to President Emmanuel Macron's contested 2023 pensions reform collapsed. The talks focused on revising the law that gradually raises France's retirement age from 62 to 64, as part of a last-ditch attempt to ease tensions between the government, trade unions and opposition parties. Prime Minister Bayrou had tasked unions and employers with identifying compromise measures, including earlier retirement options for physically demanding jobs and greater recognition of maternity leave. However, employer groups reportedly opposed any changes that they argued would impose new costs and could threaten the financial balance of the system.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 24, 2025 | 18:55 GMT
Bangladesh: IMF To Release $1.3B After Third and Fourth Loan Review
Under a combined third and fourth review of Bangladesh's ongoing loan program, the International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the release of $1.3 billion, Bloomberg reported on June 24.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 23, 2025 | 15:44 GMT
Panama: State of Emergency on Protest-Ridden Province Unlikely to End Demonstrations in the Long Term
Panamanian authorities suspended access to internet and mobile phone services in Bocas del Toro after President Jose Raul Mulino declared a state of emergency in the province following nearly two months of protests, Deutsche Welle reported June 21.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 19, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives
Facing fiscal and political constraints, Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan within broader EU and multilateral frameworks to secure greater financial and political backing and punch above its weight in advancing energy diversification and migration management goals in Africa. But structural limitations will likely constrain Rome's ability to expand its influence on the continent beyond a narrow set of strategic interests. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair a high-level summit in Rome on June 20, bringing together leaders from several African countries and key multilateral financial institutions to advance Italy's strategic development initiative for Africa, known as the Mattei Plan for Africa, and align it with the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure and connectivity investment framework. Discussions will center on shared priorities, such as advancing sustainable infrastructure, energy cooperation, digital and physical connectivity, vocational training
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 21:22 GMT
To Thwart Militant Attacks, Israel Cracks Down on the West Bank
Israel's lockdown in the West Bank will likely reduce the threat of a major terror attack in the near term, but it will also worsen Palestinians' grievances and sustain the risk of a larger uprising in the territory, while potentially fueling tensions within Israel's coalition government. Following Israel's June 13 attacks on Iran, Israel has implemented a lockdown throughout the West Bank. The Israeli army has restricted movement from smaller towns and villages to larger cities -- such as Nablus, Qalqiya, and Tulkarem -- by closing some city entrances, blocking certain roads, and imposing more checkpoints. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has also reportedly displaced Palestinian families in parts of the West Bank, seizing their homes due to their strategic military locations. In addition, the IDF has closed all entrances to Jericho and Bethlehem, and has blocked the King Hussein Bridge connecting the West Bank to Jordan. Furthermore, in East
READ MORESituation ReportJun 18, 2025 | 21:02 GMT
U.S.: Senate Passes Landmark Cryptocurrency Legislation
The U.S. Senate passed first-of-its-kind bipartisan cryptocurrency legislation aimed at creating guardrails for "stablecoins," which are digital assets fixed to a fiat currency, CNN reported on June 17.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 18, 2025 | 19:45 GMT
Mozambique: TotalEnergies CEO Confirms Plan To Resume Work on Mozambique LNG 'This Summer'
The CEO of French multinational energy company TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, said he expected the development of the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project to resume "this summer," Reuters reported on June 18.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsJun 17, 2025 | 21:10 GMT
Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?
The absence of a coherent post-war governance plan for the Gaza Strip has raised questions about who will control the territory, the role of foreign actors, including the United States, and how reconstruction will be funded. Without a viable solution, these uncertainties increase the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation and further empower far-right forces in Israel to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 17, 2025 | 16:37 GMT
Mali: Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto Gold Mining Complex Placed Under State Control
Malian court appointed an administrator to run Canadian mining company Barrick Mining's Loulo-Gounkoto gold mining complex for an initial period of six months, the Financial Times reported on June 16.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 14, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: G7 Leaders' Summit, More Israeli Attacks on Iran
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 12, 2025 | 19:38 GMT
Africa: China-Africa Statement Rebukes Trump Trade Policies as Beijing Extends Tariff-Free Trade Offer
China and 53 African countries criticized the United States’ protectionist trade policy and expressed their opposition to "any party reaching a compromise deal at the expense of the interests of other countries," following a joint China-Africa ministerial meeting, Reuters reported on June 11.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 12, 2025 | 18:04 GMT
Global: World Bank Reverses Ban on Funding Nuclear Power Projects
The World Bank's executive board lifted the bank's long-standing ban on funding nuclear power programs in a June 10 vote, Bloomberg reported June 11, citing a staff note sent to employees that day.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 11, 2025 | 19:55 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Smotrich Cancels Waiver Allowing Israeli and Palestinian Bank Transactions
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich ordered the cancellation of a waiver that enables cooperation between Israeli and Palestinian banks, just hours after the United Kingdom and four other countries sanctioned him and far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Reuters reported on June 10.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 11, 2025 | 19:50 GMT
Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited
In the coming years, China will diversify and expand trade and investment in Latin America and the Caribbean amid U.S. protectionism, but Beijing's influence will likely remain limited due to its declining financial capacity and the region's enduring ties with the West. On May 13, China hosted its fourth ministerial meeting with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, or CELAC. Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to provide the region with a new 66 billion yuan ($9.18 billion) credit line to support development, in addition to new infrastructure investments and cooperation on artificial intelligence, clean energy and the digital economy. Delegates from around 30 countries attended the event, including Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Chilean President Gabriel Boric, all of whom are leftist leaders. On the same trip, Petro and Xi signed an agreement for Colombia to join China's Belt and Road
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 10, 2025 | 20:35 GMT
What To Expect From the First G7 Summit Following Trump's Return to the White House
The upcoming Group of Seven (G7) summit will provide an opportunity for the bloc to discuss trade tensions and the war in Ukraine, but the meeting is more likely to expose divisions among Western powers, despite some progress in certain areas. On June 15-17, leaders from the G7 industrialized democracies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) will meet in Alberta, Canada, for the bloc's 51st leaders' summit. Leaders from the European Union and select other countries, including Ukraine, will also be in attendance. The meeting will be the first official gathering of G7 leaders since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in January. Since then, Trump has taken a number of actions that have upended ties with close U.S. allies in the bloc, including imposing sweeping tariffs and rhetorically criticizing multiple G7 members, not least summit host Canada. Preparatory work was done in
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