Situation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 20:47 GMT
U.S., Syria: U.S. Lifts Some, but Not All, Sanctions on Syria
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to partially lift sanctions on Syria, the White House announced on June 30.
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Situation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 19:17 GMT
Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Cuts Import Restrictions, Proposes Minerals Collaboration
Indonesia announced it will ease import restrictions on over 300 goods categories -- including plastics, chemicals, fertilizers and forestry products -- rolled out under 2023 trade protection rules in a partial reversal of its protectionist measures, Reuters reported on June 30.
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:08 GMT
China, U.S.: Washington, Beijing Finalize Rare Earth Trade Truce
The United States and China finalized their June framework trade agreement under which China has pledged to resume rare earth exports to the United States in exchange for rollbacks of certain U.S. trade restrictions on non-sensitive goods, like ethane and air components, Bloomberg reported on June 27.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
READ MORESnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
READ MORESituation ReportJun 23, 2025 | 19:06 GMT
China, U.S.: Beijing Bans Two Fentanyl Precursors as Rare Earth Exports Dropped 80% in May
China added two fentanyl precursor chemicals to its Class Two list, enabling stricter supervision of their export starting July 20 in what Chinese officials deemed "a contribution to global drug control," Bloomberg reported on June 23.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 19, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives
Facing fiscal and political constraints, Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan within broader EU and multilateral frameworks to secure greater financial and political backing and punch above its weight in advancing energy diversification and migration management goals in Africa. But structural limitations will likely constrain Rome's ability to expand its influence on the continent beyond a narrow set of strategic interests. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair a high-level summit in Rome on June 20, bringing together leaders from several African countries and key multilateral financial institutions to advance Italy's strategic development initiative for Africa, known as the Mattei Plan for Africa, and align it with the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure and connectivity investment framework. Discussions will center on shared priorities, such as advancing sustainable infrastructure, energy cooperation, digital and physical connectivity, vocational training
READ MORESituation ReportJun 17, 2025 | 18:47 GMT
New Zealand, China: Luxon Walks Tightrope on Trade and Security in First China Visit
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon arrived in China for a four-day visit, his first to the country since assuming office in late 2023, The New Zealand Herald reported on June 17.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 16, 2025 | 21:27 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification
While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is attempting to use global trade tensions to strengthen economic integration, the bloc's diversity will limit the extent of this effort even as, over time, common concern about export dependencies on the United States will drive ASEAN members to seek alternative trading partners. On May 26-27, Malaysia, as the 2025 ASEAN chair, hosted a series of summits that underscored ASEAN's broad dual-track initiatives to bolster intra-bloc trade and trade diversification. The 46th ASEAN Summit, convened on May 26, brought together leaders from the ten-member bloc and produced a new five-year strategic plan aimed at deepening economic integration among member states, with goals such as further harmonizing trade standards, enhancing financial integration and promoting sustainable economic practices. Leaders also committed to finalizing an upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement by October, which aims to further liberalize regional markets and boost intra-ASEAN trade beyond
READ MORESituation ReportJun 12, 2025 | 19:38 GMT
Africa: China-Africa Statement Rebukes Trump Trade Policies as Beijing Extends Tariff-Free Trade Offer
China and 53 African countries criticized the United States’ protectionist trade policy and expressed their opposition to "any party reaching a compromise deal at the expense of the interests of other countries," following a joint China-Africa ministerial meeting, Reuters reported on June 11.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 11, 2025 | 19:50 GMT
Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited
In the coming years, China will diversify and expand trade and investment in Latin America and the Caribbean amid U.S. protectionism, but Beijing's influence will likely remain limited due to its declining financial capacity and the region's enduring ties with the West. On May 13, China hosted its fourth ministerial meeting with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, or CELAC. Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to provide the region with a new 66 billion yuan ($9.18 billion) credit line to support development, in addition to new infrastructure investments and cooperation on artificial intelligence, clean energy and the digital economy. Delegates from around 30 countries attended the event, including Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Chilean President Gabriel Boric, all of whom are leftist leaders. On the same trip, Petro and Xi signed an agreement for Colombia to join China's Belt and Road
READ MORESituation ReportJun 10, 2025 | 16:18 GMT
Africa: Russia Vows To Step Up Economic and Security Cooperation With African Countries
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was looking to expand cooperation with African countries, including in the economic and security domains, Reuters reported on June 9.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 9, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
By Deploying the National Guard to LA, Trump Doubles Down on His Mass Deportation Efforts
The White House's unilateral federalization of the National Guard reflects an increasingly aggressive mass deportation effort amid escalating pushback that will result in a high risk of future unrest and legal standoffs, as well as add to existing economic uncertainty. On June 7, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order unilaterally invoking a federal statute to temporarily mobilize 2,000 members of the National Guard to protect federal property and officers from violence against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, which is conducting operations to arrest unauthorized migrants around the Los Angeles area. Trump's order came after two days of protests in the metropolitan area that began peacefully but turned unruly as protesters confronted heavily armed officers from ICE and, eventually, the Los Angeles Police Department and supporting federal agencies, such as the FBI. Officers used a variety of riot-control measures, including rubber bullets, flash-bang grenades and tear gas, while
READ MORESituation ReportJun 6, 2025 | 16:10 GMT
EU, China: Brussels Launches Import Monitoring System Amid Trade Diversion and Market Distortion Fears
The European Commission launched a new import monitoring system to track potential trade diversion and sudden surges in imports from third countries into the European Union amid rising global tariffs and market disruptions, according to a June 5 press release.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsJun 5, 2025 | 21:47 GMT
Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?
Much has been made of U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tour of the Middle East, where he slammed the interventionist policies of his predecessors. "In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built. And the interventionalists [sic] were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand," he said in Riyadh, about the widely panned Iraq invasion of 2003. Some have hailed Trump's remarks as signaling the end of American interventionism in the Middle East, or at least the beginning of the end, as the United States retrenches. Trump's newly appointed ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, even went so far as to say, "The era of Western interference is over. The future belongs to regional solutions, but partnerships, and a diplomacy grounded in respect." Doveish though this all sounds, the reality is that the United States remains poised to use its many tools to reshape
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 5, 2025 | 21:11 GMT
After One Year Under Lai, Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Shows Little Sign of Easing
Political infighting since President William Lai's inauguration has impeded Taiwan's efforts to bolster military spending and has prompted Chinese military and economic retaliation. Going forward, this dysfunction will imperil the fulfillment of U.S.-Taiwan trade and arms deals. May 20 marked one year in office for Taiwanese President William Lai of the center-left Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP. Four months before his May 2024 inauguration, RANE forecasted that the results of the January 2024 general election -- which secured Lai's presidency but also put the conservative Kuomintang and center-right Taiwan People's Party in charge of the legislature -- would bring about tortuous policymaking and institutional obstacles. Reality has been even more dysfunctional than projected. The opposition has attempted to erode the separation of powers in favor of the legislature, threatening a constitutional crisis for the nation's top court, and pushed through a budget with historic cuts aimed at hobbling the implementation
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 4, 2025 | 18:14 GMT
Macron's Southeast Asia Tour Deepens French Footprint in the Region
France is leveraging diplomacy, along with major defense and energy deals, to expand its role in Southeast Asia, but the longevity of its influence will hinge on maintaining naval and diplomatic engagement, delivering localized defense and maritime security benefits, and aligning with -- rather than disrupting -- regional strategic priorities. From May 25 to May 31, French President Emmanuel Macron conducted a high-profile diplomatic tour of Southeast Asia, with state visits to Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore. First, Macron visited Vietnam from May 25 to 26, during which France and Vietnam signed approximately $10.25 billion worth of commercial deals, partnership agreements and memorandums of understanding. In Indonesia from May 27 to 29, Macron and President Prabowo Subianto deepened bilateral strategic ties, namely through Indonesia's confirmed acquisition of 42 Rafale fighter jets (from a 2022 agreement) and advanced discussions for 18 more, as well as two Scorpene Evolved submarines (to be constructed
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