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AssessmentsMay 22, 2026 | 20:30 GMT
Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche (center) speaks during a news conference announcing the indictment of former Cuban president Raul Castro, at the Freedom Tower in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2026.
Assessing the Potential for U.S. Military Action in Cuba
Recent developments point to a U.S. effort to lay the groundwork for using force against Cuba, most likely in the form of a targeted operation to capture key, high-ranking officials, though a scenario of more extensive U.S. military operations remains possible. On May 20, U.S. federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging former Cuban President Raul Castro (2008-2018) on various charges in connection with the Cuban government's fatal downing of two planes piloted by U.S.-based exiles in 1996. The same day, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (the son of Cuban immigrants) released a Spanish-language video addressed to the Cuban people in which he blamed recent hardships on the country's communist leadership and said "President [Donald] Trump is offering a new relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. But it must be directly with you, the Cuban people, not with GAESA," a reference to Cuba's highly influential military conglomerate. Rubio also said
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Cuba
United States
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 19, 2026 | 14:56 GMT
Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.
The Modern Geopolitics of Israel
Israel is a minor power with middle power characteristics. Its military and economy are backstopped by the United States, enabling Israel, a country of only 10 million people in some 8,500 square miles, to project power throughout the greater Middle East and parts of the globe as though it were a middle power. But as its true geopolitical nature is that of a minor power, it is highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and sustained pressure that can drain the country's political will and economic resources. Moreover, Israel is an incomplete minor power: its core around the holy city of Jerusalem is divided between Israel and the Palestinian territories. To secure itself, Israel will seek a path to an independent middle power status, which can only be achieved by unifying the geographic core permanently, either through slow annexation, violent conquest or risky assimilation.
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United States
Egypt
Iran
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
United Kingdom
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 20, 2026 | 22:25 GMT
A general view of El Capitolio and the Havana skyline on December 16, 2014, in Havana, Cuba.
U.S.-Cuba Talks Progress, but Threat of Military Action Still Looms
A recent unannounced U.S. diplomatic visit to Cuba suggests the potential for a near-term deal that reduces tensions, though a U.S. military and/or law enforcement operation remains possible as Washington sustains pressure on Havana amid ongoing divergences in negotiations. On April 17, Axios reported that U.S. State Department personnel traveled to Havana on April 10 for previously unannounced talks with central Cuban political figures, marking the first time a U.S. government plane landed in Cuba since 2016. During the talks, U.S. officials reportedly said that the White House was open to a diplomatic solution to ease bilateral tensions, but warned it would not tolerate resistance to its demands. According to Axios and other media outlets, those demands include compensating U.S. residents and corporations whose assets were confiscated after the 1959 Revolution, releasing political prisoners and granting the Cuban population greater political freedoms. USA Today also reported on April 20, citing
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Cuba
United States
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 16, 2026 | 17:52 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) hold talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on April 1, 2026.
Armenia's Push for Autonomy Meets Russian Resistance
Russia will seek to calibrate pressure on Armenia to block its pro-EU course while trying to avoid blowback that pushes Yerevan further away from Moscow, as prolonged instability in the Middle East will limit near-term progress on regional trade corridors backed by Armenia. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Moscow on April 1, during which both leaders openly aired their core disagreements in unusually direct terms. In public comments, Putin warned that Armenia could not be a member of both the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU, and the European Union. He also pointed to the lower gas prices Russia charges Armenia compared with prices in Europe, suggesting that Armenia could lose access to discounted Russian gas if it moves closer to the European Union. Speaking about Armenia's upcoming June 7 parliamentary elections, Putin said Moscow expected pro-Russian groups to be allowed to participate
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Armenia
Russia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsMar 16, 2026 | 15:11 GMT
The Geopolitics of Demographics
The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction
Demographics has long been a core component of geopolitical study and the source of much debate. One influential instance is Thomas Malthus' assessment in the late 18th century that population growth would outstrip food and other resource availability, which has significantly impacted political and ecological theories and policies, as well as popular culture perceptions of apocalyptic futures, often tainted with fear of nuclear war. On the other hand, there is currently much hand-wringing over population growth stagnation and even negative population growth in some countries. Despite the vast differences between these modes of thought, they agree on one thing: demographics plays a major role in shaping global dynamics.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
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Military & Security
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Social Issues
The Geopolitics of Demographics
Situation ReportFeb 20, 2026 | 17:53 GMT
Russia, Mongolia: Russian Court Ruling Introduces Uncertainty in Mongolian Copper Mine
Russia's aluminum giant Rusal requested enforcement measures in its 100 billion ruble ($1.1 billion) claim against British-Australian mining company Rio Tinto, including seizure of a stake in an unnamed company widely believed to be Rio Tinto's 66% holding in Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi copper project, Kommersant reported on Feb. 20, citing a Russian appellate court filing.
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Australia
Mongolia
Russia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 13, 2026 | 21:48 GMT
A man walks past campaign posters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairman and Tarique Rahman in Dhaka on Feb. 13, 2026.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party Wins Big in First Election Since 2024 Uprising
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party's election victory will strengthen political stability, while its legislative supermajority will enable the party to advance constitutional and economic reforms and pursue a foreign policy that balances ties with India and China; however, social and fiscal pressures will constrain its efforts to reform the country in the wake of the 2024 revolution. On Feb. 13, the center-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) announced that it won Bangladesh's Feb. 12 parliamentary elections, positioning its leader, Tarique Rahman, the son of the late former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, to assume the premiership. As of Feb. 13, the Election Commission had not yet published the official results, but several local media outlets report that the party surpassed the 151-seat threshold needed for a simple majority in the 350-member parliament, winning an estimated 209 general seats that, when combined with seats allocated after results are confirmed, give the BNP a two-thirds
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Bangladesh
Economics
Politics
Situation ReportJan 13, 2026 | 16:10 GMT
U.S.: Federal Judge Allows Orsted To Resume Construction on Revolution Wind Project
Danish wind developer Orsted will be allowed to resume construction on its Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island after a federal judge on Jan. 12 issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Department of the Interior's December 2025 suspension of Orsted's lease for the project and an associated stop-work order on the project, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 13.
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United States
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
AssessmentsJan 12, 2026 | 21:22 GMT
RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026
On Jan. 5, RANE published its 2026 Annual Forecast containing our predictions for the upcoming year. This piece is designed to complement our forecast by focusing on top risks that could have a major impact on organizations and/or their operations in 2026. This report highlights two main categories of risks: high-impact, low-probability risks that are excluded from the annual forecast but could have significant implications, and trends already covered in the annual forecast but are presented here in a more extreme nature.
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Nigeria
Colombia
Cuba
Mexico
United States
Venezuela
Greenland
Iran
Israel
China
Taiwan
Europe
Norway
Ukraine
Russia
India
Pakistan
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Social Issues
AssessmentsJan 7, 2026 | 22:49 GMT
Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.
Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention
The latest round of mass protests in Iran could endure for several more weeks or months before they are likely suppressed by crackdowns, creating a window of opportunity for risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership. Iran's most serious protests in at least two years entered their eleventh day on Jan. 7, with no clear end in sight. The U.S.-based NGO Human Rights Activists in Iran reported on Jan. 6 that protests over the country's deteriorating economic situation have occurred in at least 285 locations across 27 provinces, and that 34 protesters have been killed and more than 2,000 arrested in the resulting security crackdown. On Jan. 7, Vice President Mohammed Jafar Ghaempanah claimed that President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered security forces to avoid violence unless national security is compromised. However, Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said the same day that there would be "no leniency"
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United States
Iran
Israel
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 5, 2026 | 22:09 GMT
Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.
Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios
Following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela will remain highly volatile and exposed to internal violence and further U.S. attacks. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez will most likely adopt a pragmatic, cooperative stance toward Washington to ensure regime survival, but alternative scenarios include her opting for a defiant stance vis-a-vis Washington, a hard-line coup, an internal civil conflict and a highly unlikely transition to democracy.
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Brazil
Colombia
Guyana
United States
Venezuela
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 30, 2025 | 21:38 GMT
A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.
Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike
A U.S. drone strike on an alleged drug trafficking port facility in Venezuela will escalate bilateral tensions and make further strikes highly likely in the coming weeks, though a U.S. ground invasion of the country remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. On Dec. 29, CNN reported that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA, carried out a drone strike against a port facility on Venezuela's coast earlier in December, in the first known U.S. attack on a land target within Venezuela. The strike reportedly targeted a dock in an unidentified remote area that the U.S. government believes was being used by the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to store drugs prior to loading them onto boats to be trafficked out of the country. CNN's reporting -- subsequently echoed by other media outlets -- indicates the strike destroyed the facility, but did not result in casualties, as no one was in
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 10, 2025 | 22:23 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (C), joined by lawmakers and members of his administration, delivers remarks during a dinner with leaders of Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2025.
The Promise and Limits of Increased U.S. Engagement in Central Asia
The White House's recent summit with Central Asian leaders signals a renewed U.S. effort to compete with Russia and China through trade and critical minerals, but Central Asia's geography, governance and structural dependence on Beijing and Moscow will ultimately limit the impact of heightened U.S. engagement in the region. On Nov. 6, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan at the White House for a C5+1 summit -- the format launched by the Obama Administration in 2015 after Russia's annexation of Crimea the prior year. This was only the second leaders-level C5+1 meeting, and the first ever held at the White House, reflecting Washington's renewed attention on Central Asia since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The summit occurred just after the C5+1 Business Forum, where U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick unveiled a record package of trade and investment agreements across energy,
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United States
China
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Economics
Energy
Politics
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