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SnapshotsAug 4, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
In Jordan, a Government Crackdown on Civil Dissent Risks Backfiring
The arrests of teachers union leaders in Jordan risks fueling unrest in the typically politically stable country against a government the United States relies on for its regional counterterrorism efforts. On July 25, Jordanian security forces arrested over a dozen key members of the Jordanian Teachers Syndicate and charged them with corruption, incitement, financial irregularities and criminal activities. Forces also raided the union’s offices and shut them down for two years. Nasser Nawasreh, acting head of the Teachers Syndicate, was charged with incitement specifically over a speech he gave on July 22 that sharply criticized Prime Minister Omar Razzaz’s government. A government spokesman said that the arrests were conducted to prevent the union from staging planned sit-ins and demonstrations that risked harming “the state’s essential services and their functioning.”
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AssessmentsJul 16, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
The Huawei logo is pictured on a router during a 5G event in London on Feb. 20, 2020.
U.S. Actions Against Huawei Will Only Embolden China’s Push to Grow Its Tech Sector
Escalating U.S. actions against Huawei will only motivate China to pump its domestic technology sector with even more funding and talent, which will in turn prompt the United States to impose more restrictions on international companies doing business with Huawei and other Chinese firms that pose a threat to its global tech dominance. This will result in a cat-and-mouse game in which Washington deploys whatever financial and diplomatic tools are at its disposal to close any loopholes that China and Chinese tech companies can exploit to better compete with the West. 
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AssessmentsJul 15, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A view of Huawei’s U.K. headquarters in Reading, England.
In a Win for the U.S., the U.K. Moves to Oust Huawei From Its 5G Rollout
The United Kingdom's move to oust Chinese tech giant Huawei from its telecommunications networks in the coming years will not only impede the country's 5G rollout, but will further dim hopes for a U.K.-China trade deal that could help London expand its economic relationships beyond Europe post-Brexit. But the decision nonetheless marks a significant victory for the United States, which has been pressuring its European allies to purge Huawei from their 5G infrastructure -- especially if the British ban ends up being replicated elsewhere on the Continent.  
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AssessmentsJun 30, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Syrian refugees walk outside a tent at a camp near the Iraqi Kurdish town of Bardarash on Oct. 18, 2019.
COVID-19 Cash Shortages Will Cripple Global Humanitarian Efforts
Reductions in funding for multilateral aid due to the economic fallout from COVID-19 are impacting the fight against the epidemic in conflict zones such as Yemen, raising the prospect of migration flows and renewed fighting, while increasing pressure on private aid organizations to fund humanitarian programs. Funding for multilateral humanitarian aid is dwindling as donor countries increasingly turn inward to solve their own COVID-19 crises at home. Donor countries are providing pandemic relief in various ways, including debt relief, financial swaps and bilateral aid. But global economic contractions, estimated to hover around 7 percent this year, are reducing aid contributions to the United Nations and other institutions, creating severe systemic funding gaps. 
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AssessmentsJun 3, 2020 | 17:02 GMT
Chinese flags and American flags are displayed at a business in Beijing.
Amid Rising Hong Kong Tensions, the U.S.-China Trade Deal Hangs by a Thread
Rising bilateral tensions stemming from Beijing's proposed national security legislation for Hong Kong are increasing the risk that the "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China will collapse before the end of 2020. The deal itself may still officially exist, but tit-for-tat escalation on tariffs and trade measures will render it functionally dead. Further retaliation by the United States over the Hong Kong legislation also risks triggering Chinese countermeasures beyond trade policy.
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On GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A mother takes photos with her baby under cherry blossoms in full bloom in Tokyo, Japan, on March 29, 2015.
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations. But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic
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AssessmentsMay 6, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An image displays rows of silicon wafers.
The U.S. Weaponizes COVID-19 Anger Against China’s Tech Sector
The United States and China have been locked in a technology cold war for several years. The COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, is now pressuring Washington to make even stronger moves against Beijing by fueling anti-China sentiment among U.S. voters and legislators alike. But the White House’s latest attempt to increase export controls on China and limit Beijing's overall access to U.S. technology will come at the cost of further fragmenting the global tech sector’s highly integrated supply chain network. 
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On SecurityApr 23, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
Shoppers wearing face masks amid concerns over the COVID-19 novel coronavirus outbreak in a market in Seoul, South Korea, on March 14, 2020.
Learning How to Reopen a Country After COVID-19 Shutdowns
As governments around the world explore ways to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, easing the economic pain caused by lockdowns without causing even more damaging public health crises, they will be looking at the experience of other early outbreak countries to guide their actions. While best practices are emerging, recovery strategies will be tailored to the vulnerabilities of specific populations, and to governments' current capabilities. Whether the lessons of South Korea can be applied in the West remains to be seen.
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AssessmentsApr 14, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A man wearing a bandana peddles his bicycle in front of a mural depicting the globe covered in a mask on April 13, 2020, in New Delhi, India.
Will India Bear the Brunt of the COVID-19 Pandemic?
India’s accelerating COVID-19 crisis risks quickly overwhelming its health care system and dramatically thwarting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to reinvigorate the country’s economy. COVID-19 has begun spreading in India at an exponential rate, with more 9,240 confirmed cases of the virus as of April 13. The true number of cases, however, may be much higher, given that India had only conducted 195,748 tests for COVID-19 for its 1.4 billion people as of April 12.  Thus far, the disease has hit India’s two largest metropolitan areas -- Mumbai and New Delhi -- the hardest. But there are now growing signs of significant spread throughout the rest of the country as well. Indeed, India’s COVID-19 outbreak appears to be a few weeks behind that of the United States, meaning it will likely continue to ravage the subcontinent for at least several more weeks, if not months. And as it does, the contagion
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SnapshotsApr 9, 2020 | 17:08 GMT
COVID-19 Will Cause Global Poverty to Spike
A little-noted side effect of the COVID-19 crisis on employment is the impact on the more than 100 countries where the inflow of remittances from workers overseas account for at least 1 percent of GDP. According to the U.N. International Labor Organization, full or partial lockdown measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic are affecting almost 2.7 billion workers worldwide, or about 81 percent of the global labor force. Nearly half of those affected are in labor-intensive and low-skilled jobs, many of which are traditionally filled by migrants who often send money home and have no source of replacement income to do so if they lose their jobs. In 2019, migrants around the world sent at least $700 billion in recorded remittances back to their home countries. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund believes that so-called unrecorded remittances through informal channels (such as money changers) may be 50 percent larger than recorded flows, which
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AssessmentsApr 8, 2020 | 18:16 GMT
A 3D rendering of the novel coronavirus floating in a cellular environment.
COVID-19: Frequently Asked Questions About Getting Back to Work
To help clients sift through the growing sea of COVID-19 information, RANE pulsed its network of experts to level set what should be top of mind for businesses and individuals as the pandemic unfolds. Stratfor’s geopolitical content and analysis will soon be available through RANE’s platform, where members receive exclusive access to a global marketplace of credentialed risk experts and service providers, proprietary community-driven risk intelligence, and a range of support services and risk management programs. For more information about RANE and Stratfor, visit https://go.ranenetwork.com/stratfor/rane.  This FAQ covers the following questions: What do we now know about this illness and who gets it? How can individuals best protect themselves? Do I need to worry about people getting infected by the virus living on things they touch? What do we do if someone shows symptoms while in the workplace? What can I do to mitigate the risk of being shut down by health authorities? How does this end?
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AssessmentsApr 6, 2020 | 19:35 GMT
An image of cracked, painted picture of the U.S. and Iraqi flags illustrates the two countries' decaying relationship due to Washington's ongoing pressure campaign and proxy battle against Iran.  
The U.S. Strategy in Iraq Could Come Back to Bite
Iraq has become a hot theater for escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, with Iran-backed Iraqi militias attempting to force U.S. military forces out of the country via ongoing attacks. The United States has responded by repositioning its troops instead of withdrawing them, highlighting its continued priority of ensuring Iraqi stability. But against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis, Washington’s intensified pressure campaign against Iran’s regional proxies and economic ties risk backfiring by throwing Iraq deeper into chaos.
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AssessmentsMar 24, 2020 | 14:59 GMT
Workers operate a production line of a new material company in Lianyungang, China, on March 23, 2020.
China's Economy Braces for a COVID-19 Double Hit
In China, the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak will drag on 2020 GDP growth as the country endures the twin hits of both the early-year domestic slowdown and the as-yet-unknown drop in overseas demand in key markets. But the country’s high debt levels -- partly fueled by its massive stimulus during the 2008 financial crisis, in addition to the structural slowdown already underway before the outbreak -- means Beijing will hesitate to mirror the large-scale spending being implemented in other virus-ravaged economies, such as the United States, Japan and South Korea. China will now have to choose whether to help buoy its employment and annual growth targets through spending that could jeopardize long-term economic stability.
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AssessmentsMar 24, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A colorful and conceptual 3D illustration of the novel coronavirus.
Reassessing the Global Economic Fallout From COVID-19
As the COVID-19 outbreak continues to spread to more countries in more corners of the world, initial forecasts that the total economic damage would be mostly contained to China are no longer plausible. Consensus estimates now suggest a 5-10 percent drop in global gross domestic product (GDP) in the quarter in which country-wide epidemics begin, persisting at an as-yet-undetermined magnitude into the next quarter as consumers and businesses adjust to the impact. The still many unknowns that surround the pandemic, however, has made it difficult to forecast the full economic fallout. China’s recovery may thus provide a better benchmark for what will happen elsewhere, given its status as the initial epicenter. But few other countries will be willing or able to take actions as draconian as Beijing's to quickly and efficiently contain the virus -- and the subsequent economic hits. 
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SITUATION REPORTFeb 14, 2020 | 19:11 GMT
U.S.: Cisco's CEO Rebuffs Idea for Taking an Ownership Stake in Ericsson or Nokia
Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said his company would not invest in building infrastructure for 5G telecommunications networks and brushed off U.S. Attorney General William Barr's suggestion that U.S. companies should invest in or take control of European telecom equipment makers Ericsson and Nokia to counter Huawei's 5G influence, the Financial Times has reported.
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Decade ForecastsFeb 12, 2020 | 02:59 GMT
Decade Forecast: 2020-2030
Over the next 10 years, the world will revert to a multipolar power structure that will encourage constantly shifting alliances and create a more contentious global system. In the midst of this dynamic change, pockets of economic opportunity will emerge.
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